With the Beijing Olympics ready to take center stage on the world (if it hasn't already) the American political race will continue but the excitement level and interest are doing to drop drastically. Most Americans will be more concerned about track and field than polls and surveys.
But nevertheless, the campaign will go on. Democratic Party nominee in waiting, Senator Barack Obama, continues to lead in the polls by small amounts. His "bounce" from his European and Middle Eastern tour dissipated but he climbed back up to his normal 4-6 point lead by Tuesday.
Senator John McCain, the Republican Party nominee in waiting, had a pretty good week. He finally found an avenue of attack against Senator Obama that drew some blood and that was the Democrat's celebrity. Senator McCain ran an ad that I saw on television several times over the weekend, showing Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton, and comparing their celebrity to that of Senator Obama. Another ad compared Senator Obama to Moses and used a clip from the 1956 film, The Ten Commandments, to illustrate the point.
The US press chortled and snorted saying the ads were hopeless, but they did work. They were viewed quite heavily on YouTube and other social networking sites, and I guess you could credit them with driving down Senator Obama a bit from his often lofty perch.
The two are now slugging it out over energy policy: who approves drilling where, and at what cost. Both have reversed positions previously held on where to drill for oil. But with costs of petroleum dropping a bit and now being noticed at US pumps, will energy costs (part of a larger economic issue) be as important as it once was? What will be the next issue du jour in the campaign if gasoline in the US remains under four bucks a gallon?
Who knows? The public reacts and then the candidates react to the public reacting. Not much will change in that regard until the two parties' conventions in August and September, but I believe that after they are over, we'll be back where we were before. Both candidates have to do well at their conventions because it will be the first time that Americans who weren't invested in the primary races will take a serious look at them. Even then, I would venture to say many Americans wait until the weekend before the election to make up their minds although they may lean one way or another.
But if you're tired of the constant campaign, take a break, enjoy the Olympics, and hope the weather smiles over Beijing's Bird's Nest. Talking to my friends in Hong Kong tonight, they said they were in the middle of a typhoon. Not great weather for outdoor events, but maybe it will clear out the pollution Beijing is noted for.
Hope your nations' athletes do well in Beijing...
August 5, 2008
August 4, 2008
Attack Ads
If you have been following the US presidential campaign, you have noticed that each candidate--nominees in waiting Senators John McCain of the Republican Party and Barack Obama of the Democratic Party--are running attack ads.
Horrors. How awful. Everyone in politics--save the professionals--gnash their teeth, shake their heads in sorrow and let out with exasperated sighs. This is just not the way it is supposed to be.
But anyone in politics will tell you that candidates use attack ads for one reason--they work. And by the way, the rather elastic definition of "attack ad" has been so expanded these days as to include practically anything that doesn't include motherhood and apple pie (two American staples that most of us agree are good things).
Attack ads differentiate candidates and point out differences. Sure, there are exaggerations and stretching of the truth. But they can help. Right now, Senator McCain is using an attack ad that I saw about ten times over the weekend on television. It's the one showing Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton and comparing them to Senator Obama.
While most of the press groaned, the dirty little secret is the ad worked. Since the ad began to run, Sen. Obama dropped nine points in the polls to where he and Senator McCain are tied. This after the extensive media coverage of Senator Obama's overseas trip. So why did the ad work?
Well, on a couple of levels, the ad tapped into public perceptions of Senator Obama and the American media. Polls showed that most Americans (in both parties) felt that the U.S. press was much more sympathetic to Sen. Obama than to Sen. McCain. Part of this sympathy is due to the tremendous interest in the campaign of the first African-American who will get his party's nomination for president. That, in itself, would serve as enough to whet the appetite of the ravenous press.
But also Sen. Obama is a very engaging fellow. Good looking, young, confident, and optimistic.
And therein lies the attack opportunity. Senator Obama has only been on the national stage for four years. In two of them, he was running for president. We don't know much about him except he's for "change" (whatever that is), generates incredible voter enthusiasm, and is popular abroad.
But on his overseas trip, a little hubris began to sneak into the campaign. Being young and confident can also be interpreted as being not experienced enough for the presidency and a little too sure of one's self. Perhaps Americans wanted to see Senator Obama humbled a bit, hence the drop in polls.
There are other reasons according to pollsters, but with just under 100 days remaining until the election, voters are in no hurry to make up their minds. It could very well be that once the two candidates go head to head in the fall presidential debates, voters who are thinking of casting their ballot for Senator Obama actually will, and the Illinois senator will close the deal. But until then, voters are going to make him earn their votes, no matter what the press says. Besides, they need to see this guy under pressure, and so far, that really hasn't happened yet.
Look for Senator Obama to maintain a slim lead going into the Democratic convention at the end of this month, and if all goes well, he should sprout to a 5-10 point lead afterwards. If it's less than that, then there's trouble ahead. More than that, things are looking good for November.
I still insist that it will remain close until the presidential debates and then it will break one way or the other.
Horrors. How awful. Everyone in politics--save the professionals--gnash their teeth, shake their heads in sorrow and let out with exasperated sighs. This is just not the way it is supposed to be.
But anyone in politics will tell you that candidates use attack ads for one reason--they work. And by the way, the rather elastic definition of "attack ad" has been so expanded these days as to include practically anything that doesn't include motherhood and apple pie (two American staples that most of us agree are good things).
Attack ads differentiate candidates and point out differences. Sure, there are exaggerations and stretching of the truth. But they can help. Right now, Senator McCain is using an attack ad that I saw about ten times over the weekend on television. It's the one showing Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton and comparing them to Senator Obama.
While most of the press groaned, the dirty little secret is the ad worked. Since the ad began to run, Sen. Obama dropped nine points in the polls to where he and Senator McCain are tied. This after the extensive media coverage of Senator Obama's overseas trip. So why did the ad work?
Well, on a couple of levels, the ad tapped into public perceptions of Senator Obama and the American media. Polls showed that most Americans (in both parties) felt that the U.S. press was much more sympathetic to Sen. Obama than to Sen. McCain. Part of this sympathy is due to the tremendous interest in the campaign of the first African-American who will get his party's nomination for president. That, in itself, would serve as enough to whet the appetite of the ravenous press.
But also Sen. Obama is a very engaging fellow. Good looking, young, confident, and optimistic.
And therein lies the attack opportunity. Senator Obama has only been on the national stage for four years. In two of them, he was running for president. We don't know much about him except he's for "change" (whatever that is), generates incredible voter enthusiasm, and is popular abroad.
But on his overseas trip, a little hubris began to sneak into the campaign. Being young and confident can also be interpreted as being not experienced enough for the presidency and a little too sure of one's self. Perhaps Americans wanted to see Senator Obama humbled a bit, hence the drop in polls.
There are other reasons according to pollsters, but with just under 100 days remaining until the election, voters are in no hurry to make up their minds. It could very well be that once the two candidates go head to head in the fall presidential debates, voters who are thinking of casting their ballot for Senator Obama actually will, and the Illinois senator will close the deal. But until then, voters are going to make him earn their votes, no matter what the press says. Besides, they need to see this guy under pressure, and so far, that really hasn't happened yet.
Look for Senator Obama to maintain a slim lead going into the Democratic convention at the end of this month, and if all goes well, he should sprout to a 5-10 point lead afterwards. If it's less than that, then there's trouble ahead. More than that, things are looking good for November.
I still insist that it will remain close until the presidential debates and then it will break one way or the other.
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