Attack Ads

If you have been following the US presidential campaign, you have noticed that each candidate--nominees in waiting Senators John McCain of the Republican Party and Barack Obama of the Democratic Party--are running attack ads.

Horrors. How awful. Everyone in politics--save the professionals--gnash their teeth, shake their heads in sorrow and let out with exasperated sighs. This is just not the way it is supposed to be.

But anyone in politics will tell you that candidates use attack ads for one reason--they work. And by the way, the rather elastic definition of "attack ad" has been so expanded these days as to include practically anything that doesn't include motherhood and apple pie (two American staples that most of us agree are good things).

Attack ads differentiate candidates and point out differences. Sure, there are exaggerations and stretching of the truth. But they can help. Right now, Senator McCain is using an attack ad that I saw about ten times over the weekend on television. It's the one showing Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton and comparing them to Senator Obama.

While most of the press groaned, the dirty little secret is the ad worked. Since the ad began to run, Sen. Obama dropped nine points in the polls to where he and Senator McCain are tied. This after the extensive media coverage of Senator Obama's overseas trip. So why did the ad work?

Well, on a couple of levels, the ad tapped into public perceptions of Senator Obama and the American media. Polls showed that most Americans (in both parties) felt that the U.S. press was much more sympathetic to Sen. Obama than to Sen. McCain. Part of this sympathy is due to the tremendous interest in the campaign of the first African-American who will get his party's nomination for president. That, in itself, would serve as enough to whet the appetite of the ravenous press.

But also Sen. Obama is a very engaging fellow. Good looking, young, confident, and optimistic.

And therein lies the attack opportunity. Senator Obama has only been on the national stage for four years. In two of them, he was running for president. We don't know much about him except he's for "change" (whatever that is), generates incredible voter enthusiasm, and is popular abroad.

But on his overseas trip, a little hubris began to sneak into the campaign. Being young and confident can also be interpreted as being not experienced enough for the presidency and a little too sure of one's self. Perhaps Americans wanted to see Senator Obama humbled a bit, hence the drop in polls.

There are other reasons according to pollsters, but with just under 100 days remaining until the election, voters are in no hurry to make up their minds. It could very well be that once the two candidates go head to head in the fall presidential debates, voters who are thinking of casting their ballot for Senator Obama actually will, and the Illinois senator will close the deal. But until then, voters are going to make him earn their votes, no matter what the press says. Besides, they need to see this guy under pressure, and so far, that really hasn't happened yet.

Look for Senator Obama to maintain a slim lead going into the Democratic convention at the end of this month, and if all goes well, he should sprout to a 5-10 point lead afterwards. If it's less than that, then there's trouble ahead. More than that, things are looking good for November.

I still insist that it will remain close until the presidential debates and then it will break one way or the other.