The Obama Bounce

Now that the dust has settled on the momentous overseas trip for Sen. Barack Obama, the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, the results are coming in. Besides the fabulous visuals on the trip-Barack sinking a trey on a basketball court in front of U.S. troops; 200,000 idolizing Germans listening to his speech in Berlin, schmoozing with leaders of France, Britain and the Middle East-what did American voters actually think? What was the "bounce"?

By "bounce," I mean an uptick in Senator Obama's approval ratings. By all accounts, the trip, highlighted by extensive media coverage (most of it very positive), should have boosted the Democrat over his presidential rival, Republican Senator John McCain.

And sure enough, by Sunday in the Gallup Tracking Poll, Sen. Obama sprinted to a nine-point edge over Senator McCain. A similar tracking poll (which measures daily fluctuations in the race) from the Rasmussen organization showed on Saturday that Obama shot to a six-point lead over Sen. McCain. The Rasmussen lead drifted back down to five on Sunday.

But the shocker came yesterday when the Gallup/USA Today poll showed Senator McCain leading Senator Obama among likely voters. Here I must digress and explain. Polls often ask questions of voters who have varying degrees of enthusiasm and commitment to their candidates as well as voting. Polls are often taken of "registered" voters; that is, anybody who says they are registered to vote. Polls also are taken of "likely" voters who, as you would probably conclude, say they are "likely" to vote in the upcoming election. The likely voters are often a more reliable number than the registered voters because, well. likely voters are more likely to show up at the voting booth.

Registered voters may or may not cast a ballot. So which would you rather have? A huge lead among people who may not vote, or a lead among people who say they will? Watch these numbers reported during all the polling throughout the campaign. They mean different things and should be weighed accordingly. But remember, this is only a snapshot in time. It could mean something, or it may be a statistical blip.

Anyhow, what are the numbers? Among registered voters, Obama still leads McCain but by three points, 47-44. However, among likely voters, it's Senator McCain, 49-45. Huh? In addition, the Rasmussen tracking poll is down to a one-point lead for Senator Obama. The Gallup tracking for today has it Obama by six.

So after the trip, the polls are telling us the race tightened? Why? Shouldn't Senator Obama have lengthened his lead?

Pollsters are still trying to figure this out. Gallup says that Americans actually had a muted reaction to the trip with Democrats saying it was great, Republicans, not. There were more people without an opinion than with one. The Gallup people also say that following the excitement of the Democratic primary race between Senator Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton, Republicans are tuning back into the race; they had obviously tuned out before. Senator Obama's positives among Republicans and independents have suffered slightly, hence the drop.

Throw in the factoid that many Americans think the U.S. media is biased towards Senator Obama, and the trip coverage may have reinforced their opinion, and you may have the beginnings of a little pushback. Republicans may become more energized about the race than before, although many political professionals remain gloomy about the GOP's electoral prospects.

Some commentators are dismissing the polling results saying that the real value of Sen. Obama's trip will come in the fall campaign when he can say, "When I spoke with France's president…Angela Markel of Germany and I…the Israeli and Palestinian leaders told me…" and therefore go head-to-head and toe-to-toe with Senator McCain on foreign policy debates, where Senator Obama could be weaker.

We'll see, but political common sense tells me the numbers should have been a little higher.

Don't hold me to this, but I think the Obama campaign may be suffering from a little hubris, and it's showing. Those voters who aren't devoted to Senator Obama may be put off from supporting him at this moment. They could still hop on the bandwagon and vote for him, but for now, they might think it's a little bit unseemly for him to start acting like he's already the president.

Meanwhile, Senator Obama's campaign and other sources are discussing "serious talks" with Virginia Governor Tim Kaine as a vice presidential candidate. Kaine is a Democrat who has won in a traditionally Republican state. If he can help the Democrats carry Virginia away from the Republicans, that could be great news for the Dems. But Gov. Kaine has only served two years and change as a governor. Perhaps that's not the greatest credential for a presidential candidate who is going to get attacked on his lack of experience. The two are said to get along very well and would present a forward-looking young, not-Washington type of ticket. We'll see.

Senator McCain is still considering a VP choice and some insiders say it is between former presidential candidate Mitt Romney (who was defeated by McCain) and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Conservatives in the party like Pawlenty for his tough economic stands. It's also a state the Republicans almost carried in the 2004 election and would like to take away from the Democrats if possible. Again, a tall order this year but that could be big for the Republicans if the election turns out to be close.

Finally, another Republican in hot water. Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was indicted today on seven charges of failing to report gifts and income. He is also up for election this year. He plans to fight the charges but as if Republicans didn't have enough to worry about, this won't help.