Obama in the Middle East; VP Names?

The news is saturated with coverage of Democratic Party presidential nominee in waiting, Sen. Barack Obama, and his trip to Afghanistan and Iraq. Sen. Obama is in the region to see for himself the situation on the ground.

It doesn't seem to have affected his desire to pull out most American troops from Iraq in 16 months. The Iraqis say the want US troops gone at some point although they would not commit to a timetable. Sen. Obama says that knowing what he knows now, he still would have opposed sending more troops to Iraq last year.

But almost all Middle East observers (and Sen. Obama to some degree) say the "surge" of forces to Iraq worked; violence is down, Iraqi security forces have made gains and the nightly stories of bombings that dominated news broadcasts and front pages of papers have been relegated to the back or end of the broadcast, if they are mentioned at all.

Withdrawal as a goal without a timetable, based on the events on the ground, with residual forces left, is morphing into the default position of both candidates and the Bush administration. The differences among them are becoming minute although the rhetoric is still strident. And Senator Obama is calling for more troops in Afghanistan.

Politically, the trip will do Sen. Obama much good as the American public will see him with foreign leaders and in the war zone. They may not hear much of what the anchors accompanying him on the trip will say and the substance may get lost in the background noise. What they will hear is what the press thinks. So far, the coverage has been positive but restrained. Sen. Obama has to be careful of making any gaffes and so far, his trip has been structured to do just that.

Senator McCain is trying to keep in the game as Sen. Obama dominates the headlines with critiques of his own on the Democrat's foreign policy. The Republican said that by taking a trip to the region, Obama would "have the opportunity to see the success of the surge."

Iraq and foreign affairs have taken a back seat to the economy and oil prices in recent months. If the election is fought over economic issues, that will rebound to the favor of Senator Obama, as he is of the "out" party. But if it is about national security and keeping us safe, that advantage goes to Sen. McCain.

Another political observer pointed out that the election will be a referendum on one of the two candidates. Each wants to make it a referendum on the other. Candidates usually lose referendums on themselves.

Americans are still coming to know Sen. Obama; he has only been on the national stage for four years; before that he was a state legislator. I also get the sense that Americans are in no hurry to make up their minds as the election is still over 100 days away. There have been articles suggesting this is a rerun of the 1976 election between President Gerald Ford (Republican) and Governor Jimmy Carter (Democrat). President Ford was challenged at the convention by then Governor Ronald Reagan of California, inflation was high, and the mood in the country was sour. President Ford won at the convention, but barely.

Gov. Carter had a huge advantage in public opinion polls, but later in the campaign, President Ford caught up and nearly won.

The other analogy is to 1980 when Gov. Ronald Reagan trailed President Carter through most of the election season. People knew Ronald Reagan as an actor on television, and a governor who was not ashamed to say what he thought. They didn't know him politically.

Again, the country was in a sour mood, with the Iranians holding US hostages, and American prestige around the world damaged. There were major economic troubles and the American public wanted a change, they just weren't sure if Gov. Reagan was the man they wanted to lead that change.

There was one presidential debate in the election season and in it, Ronald Reagan demonstrated he wasn't the monster portrayed in the media. He seemed kind of likable, avuncular, and connected with the audience. After the debate, it was a close race no longer, Gov. Reagan sprinted to a lead in public opinion polls and won going away.

Right now, I am leaning towards the 1980 model with Sen. Obama playing the role of Ronald Reagan. There are differences, to be sure, but I think much will depend upon how Sen. Obama comes across in the debates. If Americans don't think he is too young or too inexperienced for the job, he may win going away, too. But if they do, it will end up being a very close contest.

BTW, reports are filtering in that both candidates may soon be ready to name their vice presidential running mates. Sen. McCain may do this by the end of the week, Senator Obama in a couple of weeks. I'm not sure why they are doing this now a full month ahead of the conventions, but look for possible announcements. Republicans are leaning towards former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who was defeated in the primaries by Sen. McCain, the Democrats are anybody's guess. I haven't heard much about Sen. Clinton and the vice presidency in a long time.

Talk at you later.