Debate Tonight

A crucial debate takes place this evening in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Philadelphia is the largest city in the state that just happens to be holding the next primary election for the Democratic Party on April 22.

The debate, between leader Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, and Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, comes slightly less than a week before the voting, and after the appearance of Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker before Congress to discuss Iraq, various economic news, and the Pope's visit to America.

But the main subject of tonight's debate (as it has been all week) has been the "bitter" remarks made by Sen. Obama during a fundraiser April 6 in San Francisco. There, in a house on "billionaire's row," the frontrunner opined that voters in small-town America were made "bitter" by the lack of economic opportunity they have, and that made them "cling" to such things as religion, the ownership of guns, anti-immigrant feelings, and a lot more.

The remarks ignited a firestorm of opposition but so far, polls indicate that the race essentially stands where it was several weeks ago-a slight lead for Senator Clinton, certainly less than ten points. If that holds, say the pundits, given all that has gone on, then it will be a "victory" for Senator Obama in that he beat the expectations that he was going to be crushed.

Even though she "won," it would be considered a "loss" for Senator Clinton because analysts believe she should have won by a lot more, at least a margin in double digits, the higher the better.

I have no great source feeding me information but I would be surprised if the "bitter" comments have little effect on the race. I know what the polls say but I think when people get in the polling booth, it may be more of an issue than pundits think.

What is keeping the race close is that Senator Clinton has had trouble of her own. Her speeches saying she landed "under fire" in Bosnia were proved by videos on You Tube to be, and this is understated, an "exaggeration." This hasn't helped her and you can see this reflected in additional polling.

But if she does win the state, even by 5-6 points, her campaign will keep going into the next states of Indiana and North Carolina. Senator Clinton has a slight lead in Indiana, according to surveys, while Senator Obama enjoys a double-digit lead in North Carolina.

What this long campaign is showing is that, rather than the early claims that both candidates are terrific, and isn't this long race just swell, both candidates have assets and liabilities that are very real and could, in the worse case scenario, bring each down.

The salad days of Senator Obama and the constant reports of women swooning at his speeches are over. His negatives have risen and he has come down to earth. Senator Clinton has also seen a rise in her negatives as well. Some supporters of each candidate say they will refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee if it is not the one they currently want to win.

Additionally, the non-elected "super delegates" are being pressured to unite behind a nominee long in advance of the Democratic Convention in August. There are reports bouncing around that those super delegates who remain uncommitted (there are some 350 of 800 give or take) are being asked to declare their support for the leader in pledged or elected delegates and the popular vote after the Democratic primaries are over by early June.

This would signal a winner (presumably Senator Obama) and then the party could unite behind that candidate and begin the general election campaign against likely Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain. While the race between the likely Republican nominee and the two Democrats is remarkably close, most analysts think the Democratic nominee would get an instant boost and immediately go out to a 10-point lead in preference surveys.

But a point is being made that to date, these uncommitted super delegates have held off on an endorsement because of concerns with both candidates. Has Senator Obama been painted as the candidate of the Democrats' liberal elite? Is Senator Clinton now too damaged by her Bosnia fiasco to be believed? Polls indicate that rank and file Democrats want the race to continue so there is obviously some uncertainty still remaining in the party.

The debate tonight could be telling, but so far, they have been fairly tame affairs with the ball moving little. The only debate that ever changed things was the one, coincidentally, in Philadelphia late last year when Sen. Clinton prevaricated (for days) on whether or not she would grant drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants (a pet project of former Governor of New York Elliot Spitzer).

That is when the campaign of Senator Obama began to take off.

But since then, the debates really haven't done much. Will they tonight? We'll find out….