Pennsylvania Consensus

The fallout from the Pennsylvania Primary on Tuesday night, April 22, is continuing. The American media is now ginning up stories about Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, the leader in the Democratic Party's presidential race that would have been unthinkable months ago.

"Is Obama Electable?" went one; "Is Obama Ready for Prime Time?" went another. The current "narrative," which is the media-enforced storyline at a given time, is that Senator Obama has not done well with traditional voters in the Democratic Party-union members, women, Catholics, Jews, the elderly, downscale economic workers. While he has brought new, younger voters into his camp along with his base consisting of highly educated, highly paid working professionals and African-American voters, they may not be enough to guarantee him victory in November over Sen. John McCain, the likely nominee of the Republican Party.

Senator Obama is also being painted more and more as a "liberal" Democrat, and less the post-racial non-partisan candidate and more of a traditional doctinaire liberal.

Senator Obama's rival, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, cut into his popular vote lead and only slightly dented his lead in delegates. According to RealClearPolitics.com, Senator Obama is ahead in delegates by 131, and in the popular vote (in all these primaries and causes) by about 500,000. Senator Clinton is making the case that if you count the disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida, she would actually be ahead in the popular vote contest.

That is the fear of many Democratic Party professionals-the split decision: Senator Obama ahead in delegates while Senator Clinton is ahead in the popular vote. While most analysts believe that will not happen, you never know in American politics. And that is one reason why Senator Clinton is not leaving the race-you never know.

This past month has been hard on Senator Obama. The reverend of the church he long attended, Jeremiah Wright, was a You Tube star preaching invective about America that would be more at home in North Korea than Illinois; then a comment that hard economic times made poor downscale voters "bitter" which led them to "cling" to things like their guns, their religion, and attitudes that those in Senator Obama's class would never begin to consider holding. Then there was the Pennsylvania debate where the moderators launched a45-minute assault on these questions and more.

It was the first time that Senator Obama really had to face a skeptical media, not the one which gushed over his every move and speech and reported how they felt "tingling" in their legs just watching him. And Senator Obama seemed unprepared and irritated that he would have to answer such questions. Another example bubbled up through the blogosphere in Pennsylvania where he was asked a question in a diner about these sorts of issues, and he said, exasperated, "Can't I just eat my waffle?" Ouch. This is not the report of a "Happy Warrior" ready to answer questions from one and all with a smiling face. This is not an approach to win hearts and minds either.

Additionally, there will be further questions on Senator Obama's associations with former radical bomber William Ayers, and Mr. Ayers' wife, Bernadine Dohrn. Mr. Ayers was a radical from the 1960s involved with a group called the Weather Underground, which set bombs off including one in the U.S. Capitol. Ms. Dohrn was part of a group that committed an armed robbery in which a security guard and two police officers were shot to death. She refused to testify against a confederate and served time in prison.

Both turned themselves in the 1980s, and because of prosecutorial misconduct, all charges against Bill Ayers were dropped.

Senator Obama has said that his association with Bill Ayers is one between him and, as he put it, "a guy who lives in my neighborhood," and that, "…knowing somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was 8 years old, somehow reflects on me and my values doesn't make much sense."

But most American voters, save very liberal ones who find nothing in the relationship untoward, are going to question why Senator Obama hasn't been more critical of Bill Ayers (who held a fundraiser for him in the senator's earliest political days) and his activities. This, in the eyes of many political analysts, is something that could come to haunt Senator Obama. I think this could be an ongoing issue, despite Senator Obama's supporters' gripes about it, that could drain support the longer it goes unaddressed.

When this is added to the Jeremiah Wright comments, and other recent gaffes in the Obama campaign, it does start to hurt him. It takes away from a persona that was almost absent in political baggage and now dumps a whole lot of luggage on him. The shine and luster have vanished in the hand-to-hand political combat of a presidential primary. He is looking less like the post-politics person who was going to bring us together, and more like a typical politician, evading questions, and coming up with tortured compromises to difficult situations.

Not that Senator Clinton benefits directly. Her veracity (the story of her landing in Bosnia under sniper fire, proved by You Tube to be false) is questioned by a large group of Americans but recent press reporting indicates that Democrats respect her fight for the nomination and most Democrats polled in Pennsylvania don't want her to get out of the race, at least not yet. Voters also hold high negative ratings for her but she is hanging on in the race and vows not to go away.

What may be very troubling for Democrats is that segments of each candidate's supporters say they will refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee if their choice loses. While most political experts say this just reflects the emotions of the moment, and that they will come back to vote for the party's standard bearer, even if a small minority carries out this threat, it could be harmful for the Democrats chances in the fall.

The smart money says that Senator Obama, flush with cash compared to the money-starved campaign of Senator Clinton, is still the favorite to get the nomination because of his delegate lead and the fervent support of his backers. That may be, but the next few elections in Indiana and North Carolina, particularly, will have a lot to say about the campaigns of both candidates.

No matter that party officials want an end to the bloodletting, the two seemed destined to slug it out until, as former President Bill Clinton used to say as a candidate, "the last dog dies." The consensus now after Pennsylvania is that Senator Obama may still be the nominee, but it is not completely inconceivable that Senator Clinton could still somehow, snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. And the Senator Obama who may win in August will not be the same Senator Obama who was dazzling the political world in March.

No matter who wins, they will face a tough campaign for the White House as polls now suggest. It won't be a cakewalk for anyone in what has turned into, for the Democrats, one of the most bruising campaigns in recent party history.