Pennsylvania Tightening Up

In the Democratic presidential race (the only game in town), it looks as if the primary in Pennsylvania, scheduled for April 22, is getting closer. Recent polls show that the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton has tightened considerably.

For weeks, Senator Clinton has enjoyed a double-digit lead in the state which is said to be tailor-made for her because of the demographics. But two new polls out show the race much more even.

A Public Policy Poll of a large sample of voters (1224) gives Senator Obama the lead by two points, 45-43; an Insider Advantage poll has Senator Clinton ahead by three. Both of those polls were taken through April 1. A SurveyUSA poll in Pennsylvania that ended on March 31 had Senator Clinton up by 12. Other polls show a wide variance although Senator Clinton maintains a lead in them.

Bottom line is that it looks as though the huge spending advantage Senator Obama has in Pennsylvania (about a 3-1 advantage) may be helping erase the deficit. Some analysts argue that the long period between the Clinton victories in Ohio and Texas to Pennsylvania has benefitted Senator Obama who is spending lots of time in the state.

Also, his speech on race may have allayed some fears in the Democratic Party about him (although I think there is still fallout to be had from it); Senator Clinton's gaffe about sniper fire in Bosnia hasn't helped her at all, and the numerous endorsements that Senator Obama is getting daily may take its toll.

Senator Obama is also outraising her in funds, so put all these things together and one could see that the race is tightening.

Most analysts say that Senator Clinton needs to win by double digits in Pennsylvania and to eke out a win may not help her at all. But a win is a win.

If Senator Obama wins by a small margin, it's a huge triumph for him; but if Senator Clinton wins by that same margin, it's a "defeat". Such is the expectations game. But the two have run neck and neck and the margin between them after all the primary votes is not that much (compared to the number of primary voters and delegate totals) so why would we expect that to change in Pennsylvania?

There are scenarios being spun about how Senator Clinton could garner more popular votes at the end of the primary process, but she has to win Pennsylvania.

I'll have more polling data and trends as we go.