Wild Weekend, Wild Numbers

Well, taking the weekend off was nice to regenerate the batteries but the campaign slogs on and on.

Basically, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, the leader in popular votes and delegates over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Party, seems to be making headway among the so-called "superdelegates" with the proposition that he should receive the presidential nomination.

He leads Senator Clinton in the realclearpolitics.com delegate tally by 133 out of 3,131 delegates either pledged or committed (including superdelegates, those Democratic convention delegates who are given voting privileges because of their status within the party). He also leads in the popular vote by 717,000 votes out of 25,993,612 cast. These are not large margins--2.6 percent in the popular vote and 4.2 percent in the delegate count.

But they are leads and if the convention were held today, he would win, and rightly so.

However, the convention is not today, it is in August and there are still some ten contests to go. They will be held in states and territories that are more favorable to Senator Clinton than Senator Obama. The political analyst Michael Barone looked at the remaining contests in his U.S. News and World Report blog:
(http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/3/28/projection-clinton-wins-popular-vote-obama-wins-delegate-count.html

He basically says it is possible, given past voting patterns in demographically equal areas among states that have already voted, that Sen. Clinton could sprint past Senator Obama in the popular vote total in the primaries.

Much would depend upon the June 1 vote in Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory, but if Sen. Clinton can win big there, it is possible for her to erase his popular vote lead, but the delegate lead would remain with Senator Obama.

This scenario, if it came to pass, would truly be the train wreck that Democrats are fearing. Then the superdelegates would be forced to choose which candidates' lead would be more critical: the delegates or the popular votes. Since neither would have enough delegates to claim the nomination on the first ballot, it would be an excruciatingly difficult choice for superdelegates to make in the hothouse of a nationally-televised convention.

Perhaps that is why some superdelegates are seeking a "superdelegate" convention to award the nomination to Senator Obama (who picked up some key endorsements over the weekend from previously uncommitted Democrats).

But this is like conceding a soccer match down a goal with ten minutes to play. Senator Clinton gains nothing by conceding at this point, according to many observers (including me). If Senator Obama loses by double digits in Pennsylvania and that leads to other losses in other states, wouldn't that send a signal that the race is not yet over?

It seems we have been at this point before. In advance of the primaries in Ohio and Texas in March, there was also pressure for Senator Clinton withdraw. She says she won't, former President Clinton says she won't, and therefore, I don't think she will, despite what "party leaders" wish. In politics, there are too many variables, and another Jeremiah Wright scandal could emerge or a few losses could once again send the press to calling the race "a tossup".

Clue: The U.S. press would love to see a wild convention with the nomination still in doubt. It would make up for the decades of covering coronations of incumbent presidents and gatherings with as much excitement as watching paint dry. They will try to keep the race going but, if things break Senator Clinton's way as polls suggest they might, the press can sit back and enjoy.

Of course, Senator Obama will be doing as much as he can to win the state of Pennsylvania (which would be a knockout blow).

But the way I view this, I don't think this race is over yet, not with the ten contests remaining which appear to be favorable to Senator Clinton in the post-Wright atmosphere.

If Michael Barone is proved right, the Democratic National Convention of 2008 could be one for the ages.

I'll blog tomorrow on speeches and ads that Republican Party presumptive nominee John McCain is putting together. There are some revealing tidbits about his assessment of the race at this point.

Keep it here and at www.voanews.com, and this weekend, look at our new Election USA weekly wrap up of the 2008 political race in the U.S. It is right on our front page on the new website. Hope you enjoy it!