Weekend Update

Well, sorry I've been off the grid for awhile. Other duties intervened but let's take a look at where we stand now and what's been happening.

The tally in the Democratic Party's presidential race, according to RealClearPolitics.com, finds Senator Barack Obama of Illinois with a 131-delegate lead (when counting announced superdelegates) and a 2.6 percent lead over Senator Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. If you just go by the number of pledged delegates he has won, the lead goes up to 166. But if you count in the disputed state of Florida's popular votes, his vote margin shrinks to 1.4 percent.

Over in the Republican Party, Senator John McCain of Arizona clinched the presidential nomination on March 4, and is now putting together a national campaign.

I've written quite extensively about the Democratic race since that is where all the action is. It seems clear from statements by former President Bill Clinton (who should know) that Senator Hillary Clinton has no intention of quitting the race although public signals have been sent by major party officials.

Democratic Party national Chairman Howard Dean says he wants the race wrapped up by July 1 and he is asking the superdelegates (those delegates who are given voting privileges in the Democratic convention because of their party status-elected officials, party administrators, former administration leaders, etc.) to arrive at a consensus before then, hopefully even in June.

The Democratic Party primaries end in June and the likelihood, according to most political observers, is that neither Senator Obama nor Senator Clinton will amass enough delegates through the electoral process to claim an outright victory. The Obama forces have been saying (along with other Democrats) that the superdelegates should respect the will of the voters in the Democratic contests and ratify the leader. That should be Senator Obama. And in fact, he has won the most delegates in primaries and caucuses, clearly following the party rules. If there is a "will of the voter" in the Democratic Party, it is with Senator Obama.

Senator Clinton's case is to argue to the superdelegates that she has won Democratic contests in the major industrial states because of her appeal to bedrock party constituencies-women, Hispanics, older voters, and blue-collar workers. She also says that Senator Obama may now have enough cachet to capture the nomination but his natural coalition of upper-income white liberals, younger voters, and African-Americans, in the end, would not be enough to win against the Republicans.

Senator Obama has expanded that coalition along the way but recently, he has been losing those constituencies and the question being asked is if he would win them in the general election.

Troubling for Democrats are recent polls suggesting that significant numbers of Clinton and Obama supporters say they would not vote for the party nominee if their candidate loses in the primary contest. Most analysts say that by Election Day, when the passions of the moment cool down, those voters would return to the Democratic fold. But others aren't so sure. The longer the election goes on, the harder these feelings will be, and even if five percent vow not to vote for the party nominee, it could have an impact.

Over on the Republican side, many conservatives who have grumbled at the prospect of John McCain heading the ticket, also could stay home on Election Day. These conservatives don't view the Arizona senator as someone who shares their views and point to numerous times over the years when Senator McCain seemed to go out of his way to oppose them. You don't hear these noises publicly but you have to wonder if indeed some die-hard conservative voters in the Republican Party could just not pull the lever for the presumptive nominee. Well, the pundits said it was going to be a very different election and they may be right!

Meanwhile, the next Democratic Party contest is April 22 in Pennsylvania. Polls still show Senator Clinton ahead by 10 points in the last survey taken which ended on March 24. But Senator Obama is beginning to work the state and is hoping to eat into that advantage. Most experts don't think he can win, given the state's demographics, but a slight loss could be spun into a victory. An outright victory for Senator Obama and the race is over. But a huge loss in Pennsylvania, and the doubts, which might be being expressed privately by superdelegates, will linger.