March 11, 2008

So What's New in Pennsylvania?

Now that Sen. Barack Obama has won Mississippi, it's only 42 days and counting until the big primary in Pennsylvania. Some 158 delegates at stake and it's another one of those must-win states for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

While Sen. Obama could probably afford the loss in terms of the number of delegates he would still win under the Democratic Party's proportional allocation scheme, a loss would turn up the heat on the notion that he hasn't won any big states in the primary process. If nothing else, it's fodder for the super delegates to mull over as they might (more than might, it's probably likely) have to make the final choice between the two.

Latest poll is the SurveyUSA poll showing Sen. Clinton 19 points ahead. That figure is sure to slip as the campaigning, already underway, heats up in the state. A 19-point win at this point for Sen. Clinton would have enormous psychological implications in the race. A win by Sen. Obama--of any kind--would come close to wrapping it up for him (based on my reading of the situation) in terms of delegates and the electability argument.

BTW, there is a Republican primary in Mississippi as well but since Sen. John McCain has already clinched the nomination, not much happening there. In fact, ten percent of voters in the Democratic Primary were Republicans!

FWIW, Sen. McCain was declared the winner over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has already conceded the race. Exit polls show Mississippi voters liked Gov. Huckabee and think that Sen. McCain is not conservative enough.

Both Democratic Party candidates are campaigning in Pennsylvania today and will stay there for another 42 days. With rhetoric heating up, this should be one heckuva race.

No comments: