Sunday Update

It is a glorious Easter Sunday morning in Washington. The sun is shining, there is a clear sky, and the sounds of woodpeckers fill the air.

But that won't stop the political train from going and here are some updates on what has transpired...

Bill Richardson Endorses Obama

Current New Mexico Governor and former presidential candidate for the Democratic Party, Bill Richardson, endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for the nomination. This is a little unusual given that the governor used to be U. S. ambassador to the United Nations and Secretary of Energy under the presidency of Bill Clinton. In fact, former Clinton aide James Carville was quoted in the NY Times as saying: "Mr. Richardson’s endorsement came right around the anniversary of the day when Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver, so I think the timing is appropriate, if ironic."

Gov. Richardson informed Senator Hillary Clinton about his decision and said to the Times, "Let me tell you: we’ve had better conversations."

The endorsement came in the middle of the flap over Senator Obama's ties to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright whose comments on America during his sermons are, depending upon the source, "outspoken," "provocative," or "incendiary," take your pick. You can read some of the comments in past posts of mine.

Gov. Richardson is also Hispanic which should help Sen. Obama with a Democratic Party ethnic group for which he could use a little help.

Gov. Richardson has always been floated as a possible vice presidential nominee because of his mix of foreign and domestic policy experience. Whether Sen. Obama picks him (should the Illinois candidate get the nomination) remains to be seen, but the endorsement certainly raises that possibility.

Clinton Can't Win...

Just weeks after Sen. Clinton's comeback wins in Ohio and Texas (among others) which purportedly created a whole new race in the Democratic Party's presidential contest, the new meme emerging is: face it, folks. she can't win. The math is against here, and truly, we all know better.

This line of thought came up on the blog Politico. A report there [http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html] says she "...has virtually no chance of winning. Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates."

She would have to win the remaining ten primaries with large enough margins to overhaul Senator Obama's lead in the popular vote which (without the voting in Michigan and Florida's primaries which will not count) stands at more than 700,000 votes according to RealClearPolitics.com. Forget pledged delegates, where RCP says he leads by 167.

Unless the New York senator racks up huge wins, odds are she will never catch Sen. Obama there and it is unlikely she will catch him in the popular vote. The only way to victory, according to this argument which is beginning to find purchase, is to convince the party's "superdelegates" that Sen. Obama cannot win.

Sen. Clinton can help herself if she wins the remaining primaries convincingly and gets close enough to have these superdelegates consider the question.

The flap over Rev. Wright has hurt Senator Obama, there is no doubt about that. He dropped in polls, then came back over the weekend. But his negatives have risen, and among white Democratic voters, particularly in the working class, the Wright comments and the senator's response, have greatly lessened the post-racial appeal. At the very least, as one writer put it, Sen. Obama was knocked off his pedestal.

But supposing he loses Pennsylvania by high double digits which is not out of the question. Reports are the Obama campaign is working to secure as many delegates out of a potential loss as possible. But a double digit loss in another big industrial state would change the press meme yet again.

Which brings us to North Carolina, a state in the American south that has a primary on May 6, two weeks after Pennsylvania on April 22.

This was supposed to be the state that would put Sen. Obama over the top. It has, according to one poll, a 33 percent African-American voter base in the primary that would presumably go 95-5 for Sen. Obama. But recent reports show a much tighter race with him leading by one point where he led by much higher margins not that long ago.

If he were to lose that race (I don't think he will at this point but it is possible and more possible following a big loss in Pennsylvanaia) then I think the Obama campaign might start to sweat a little as they near the prize but find themselves slipping backwards.

If anything, the Wright imbroglio could have an impact on the Tarheel state (which I bet right now is more concerned with the University of North Carolina's attempt to win the U.S. college basketball championship).

The state's former senator and past Democratic Party vice presidential candidate, John Edwards, who dropped out of this year's presidential race, is not likely to make a Richardson-like endorsement, according to news reports. He is staying neutral and waiting until the contest is decided.

If you are in the Politico-thinking crowd, that date is thought to be May. I say, keep the powder dry.

With Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican Party nominee who was on a foreign trip this week, out of this controversy, it is easier for him to concentrate on the general election against either candidate. The assumption is it is going to be Sen. Obama.

I know I keep saying I will have more on the Republican and I will but not today.

That's it, keep reading, and I want to hear from you. What do you think about all this, particularly the Wright episode? I'm curious.