March 11, 2008

More on Mississippi's Demographic Divides

Some additional exit polling and turnout information.

Turnout in the Democratic Party primary was considered light to moderate. Both parties combined for about 10 percent of voters. There was some rain in Mississippi this morning which may have held down vote totals.

But the stories about incredible turnouts breaking records and long lines, seem to fading out a bit. Perhaps people are getting tired of the race or we are coming back down to more normal totals.

Secondly, there are votes in Mississippi, at least, that are breaking along racial lines. Seventy two percent of white voters in the Democratic Party, according to Fox Exit polls, supported Sen. Clinton, only 27 percent supported Sen. Obama. MSNBC polls show that Sen. Obama beat Sen. Clinton among black men by 93-7 and black women by 88-12. Conversely, Sen. Clinton won white men over Sen. Obama, 70-30, and white women--her strong suit--75 to 24.

So Sen. Obama's showing among white voters was better than Sen. Clinton's showing among black voters. According to the Fox poll, 72 percent of all primary participants said that race was not an issue but 40 percent of black voters said that it was.

Again, Sen. Clinton won older voters, Sen. Obama won younger voters.

Not too much difference from what has taken place in past elections, but given the large number of African-American voters in the Mississippi Primary, the heavy support given Sen. Obama led to his overall victory.

It seems not that long ago that African-Americans were largely supporting Sen. Clinton but Sen. Obama's win in South Carolina changed all that. It is expected that Sen. Obama will attract the support of African-American voters in Pennsylvania on April 22 while Sen. Clinton will get the votes of downscale economic white voters.

This race in the Democratic Party is certainly breaking across several demographic fault lines of class, race, age, and gender. To watch this is both fascinating and somewhat troubling at the same time.

Perhaps in Mississippi with its stark population patterns, results like these are to be expected but it is going to take a lot to smooth over these divides once a winner is ultimately selected. But if it is one thing that the American system has done well in the past, it's fashion compromises. Maybe this time will be no exception.

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