The Day after Super Tuesday II

The analyses is flying in, scenarios are being rewritten, and the political landscape in the 2008 US presidential election has been changed dramatically.

First off, rising from the political dead, Arizona Sen. John McCain clinched the Republican Party's presidential nomination last night defeating former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Sen. McCain won the old-fashioned way: he earned it. Given up for dead last year because of his stances on Iraq (he favored the war and the surge) and illegal immigration (he resisted measures that would have made his party look anti-Hispanic), he weathered staff resignations, talk radio accusations and more to come back and win.

Conservatives in the party, a potent bloc, never really had a candidate around which they could rally (I can't end a sentence with a preposition!). They flirted with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and several others. But in the end, their strength was diffused among various candidates. Some even backed Sen. McCain because of his stance on the war.

When the surge began to shove Iraq down the issue scale among voters, and the Arizonan began winning primaries, most Republicans pegged him as the guy most likely to succeed in the fall. So what if you have some disagreements on policies? There's plenty of time to mend some fences. That was the idea that many conservatives confessed to after the McCain win.

He has formidable obstacles ahead of him--the war issue, an economy which many Americans worry about, and his age. If he wins, he would be the oldest elected first-term president at 71. Democrats are saying he represents a third term for President Bush. He is going to have to embrace the president but not too much and carve out his own space but that is what these candidates do. The good thing for him is that he will have several months to do this.

In the Democratic Party, as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said earlier this week, "I'm just getting warmed up." So is the party. Her victories in Texas and Ohio (and Rhode Island) last night propelled her back into the race with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois (who won in Vermont). It guarantees that the contest is going to go on through the spring, perhaps through to the final vote in the U.S. Commonwealth of Puerto Rico in June. It may even go beyond that to the convention itself.

Sen. Obama leads in delegate totals, according to RealClearPolitics.com, 1570-1465, which includes so-called "super delegates". These "super delegates" are 796 party officials, honorees, and insiders who have voting power at the Democratic National Convention. They are bound to no one and can vote as they choose. Next comes the "add on" delegates--76 delegates who are added on to each state's allotment of "super delegates". The add-ons are determined by virtue of a formula that gives states one add-on for each number of seats they have on the Democratic National Committee, the party's ruling body. According to the Wall Street Journal, most states will have one or two; California will have five. These "add-ons" will be selected at upcoming state party conventions in the coming weeks.

These "add-ons" were made part of the Party's rules in 1988 and they were supposed to reflect the popular vote in party primaries. But over time, they became prizes for party activists.

The issue facing the Democrats now is that because of their rules by which delegates are rewarded according to the proportion each candidate receives in the primary election, it will be very difficult for Sen. Clinton to pass or equal Sen. Obama unless she racks up some huge margins in her victories. The math, as most analysts are writing in the US on Wednesday, works against her.

But it is also not clear that Sen. Obama will gain enough delegates (2,025 needed to win) to grab the nomination either. And if they are within a hundred votes or so out of some 3,176 pledged delegates, that is not a very big margin. It is also not clear who will win the popular vote totals among the two candidates after all the races have been won.

So I am moving to the idea that it is the superdelegates who will decide the outcome of the race. And they may split evenly as well depending upon how they vote: do they vote their conscience? The person who won in their state? Congressional district? How will these choices be made? Both campaigns now are courting these super delegates which again makes it only more likely that these delegates will tip the balance one way or the other.

Sen. Clinton is talking about a "dream ticket" of her and Sen. Obama for VP. We're a long way from that, as the Obama campaign has already said. But one thing is beginning to be talked about quietly among political reporters. If Sen. Obama has a lead in delegates going after the primaries, but loses because of super delegate support for Sen. Clinton, it would be a raucous convention with a breach that may never heal.

Somebody's gotta win this thing and there are scenarios for either but the bruised feelings on the part of the loser will take a lot of time to heal, and since the party convention is in late August, it's going to be difficult to heal if there's a lot of blood on the floor (speaking figuratively) before the vote in November.

In fact, several political writers noted that the real winner last night in the Democratic races was Sen. McCain!

There is a caucus upcoming in Wyoming on March 8 and a primary in Mississippi on March 11 which should bring delegates to Sen. Obama. Then a huge primary in Pennsylvania on April 22 with 158 delegates at stake.

We'll cover the polls and predictions on that one and others. And hey, I was right about Texas in my prediction and just a little off on Ohio--right candidate, wrong margin. Keep it here for the best in campaign coverage and head over to www.voanews.com for all the latest on the race.

Back at ya later.