March 11, 2008

As Expected Obama Leading or Has Won

Fox News has called the Mississippi Primary in the Democratic Party for Sen. Barack Obama, CNN says Sen. Obama is "leading" over Sen. Hillary Clinton.

I think it is safe to say that Sen. Obama is going to win this and the only question is how many delegates of the 33 at stake tonight will he earn.

But he is expected to win this primary because of the large African-American vote which should propel him to victory.

Interesting exit polling: Six in 10 voters for Sen. Obama say he should pick Sen. Clinton as his running mate should he win, but only four in 10 voters for Sen. Clinton believe she should pick Sen. Obama as her running mate.

More ominously, nearly three-fourths of Clinton voters said they would be "dissatisfied" if Sen. Obama wins the nomination but little more than half of Obama voters would be "dissatisfied" if Sen. Clinton wins.

One in five voters for Sen. Clinton said that Sen. Obama could beat Republican Party nominee Sen. John McCain, but only one in 20 voters for Sen. Obama believes that Sen. Clinton can beat the Republican standard-bearer in November.

What does all this mean? The vice presidential choice questions tells me that Sen. Obama's supporters are much more confident than Sen. Clinton's at the moment as they feel they can be magnanimous towards Sen. Clinton. Feelings are harsher the other way around.

Secondly, the second finding surprises me. I would have thought given the passion behind Sen. Obama's voters, that they would be much less willing to accept Sen. Clinton as the presidential candidate than the other way around. Of course, if the question were posed that somehow Sen. Clinton didn't win the majority of delegates through the electoral process but rather the super delegate process, I wonder if that would change. At any rate, a surprising poll result.

What is not surprising is how few supporters of Sen. Obama believe Sen. Clinton can triumph in the fall instead of Sen. Obama.

Taken together, it shows that voters on both sides have some strong feelings about their candidates and it will take quite a lot of work to bring the losing side along with the winner come convention time.

0023 UTC: NBC News Declares Sen. Obama the winner in Mississippi.

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