Thursday Update

Back on the grid again after a day or two off...

Well, lots of things happening offstage (if there is such a place) on the US presidential race. All eyes are focused now on the Democratic Party's presidential nomination race between Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

For the record, after wins in the Wyoming caucus and Mississippi primary last week, RealClearPolitics has it 1618-1494 in total delegates (pledged plus committted super delegates) in favor of Sen. Obama. He also leads in the total popular vote cast, 13,280,770 to 12,577,044, a margin of 47.1 percent to 46.9 percent. This does not take into account the voting in Michigan and Florida. Voting in those two states for the Democrats don't count (for now) because they moved their elections up in violation of Democratic Party rules. The Democrats may devise a system to revote in these states but that's not happened yet and that is a post for another time.

Suffice to say, Sen. Obama has the lead in delegates and the popular vote and he will probably hold the delegate lead through the end of the primary season in June. It is possible that Sen. Clinton could overtake him in the popular vote category which would really put the Democrats into more of a dilemma than they already are.

Republicans, for their part, are just about done--Sen. John McCain of Arizona has clinched the nomination and is now trying to stay in the headlines while everyone focuses on the Democrats. A popular parlor game is guessing the vice presidential choice of Sen. McCain. It seems like former rival and past governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, wants the job and is publicly campaigning for it. There is still time for Sen. McCain to be thinking about the number two spot.

The next big stop on the road to Denver (site of the Democrats' Convention) is Pennsylvania, where on April 22, Senators Obama and Clinton will face off again with 158 delegates at stake. Currently. Senator Clinton holds the early lead in public opinion polls in a state whose demographics seem tailor-made for her candidacy. But I expect Sen. Obama to eat into that lead although so far, with both candidates campaigning in the state, she is holding onto a double-digit lead.

A double digit win for Sen. Clinton could make things even more interesting in the Democratic race than they already are.

Meanwhile, Gov. Eliot Spitzer, Democrat of New York, resigned his office effective this Monday. Gov. Spitzer was discovered to be "Customer Number 9" in a high-price prostitution ring. Gov. Spitzer held a news conference to say that he was involved in the ring and called it a "private matter." He made no statements about resigning.

Republicans in New York threatened to impeach him, Democrats at the state level began speaking out, and two days later, Gov. Spitzer (dubbed by New York tabloids as "The Luv Guv") said he was stepping down in favor of Lt. Governor David Paterson. There is a chance of prosecution of soon to be ex-Governor Spitzer for breaking various laws but we will find out about that later.

With that resignation out of the way, the political focus returned to the Democrats' presidential race and the specter of racial turmoil began to heat up yet again. Earlier during the South Carolina Democratic Primary, former President Bill Clinton, campaigning for his wife, said that Sen. Obama's biography and campaign claims had been "a fairy tale." This angered African-Americans and the former president (who had been up to that point very popular with African-Americans) was roundly criticized. He toned down his comments.

After a Barack Obama supporter named Samantha Power was quoted last week as calling Sen. Hillary Clinton a "monster," she had to step down from her advisory role to Sen. Obama. Then, former vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro, who ran with Walter Mondale in a 1984 wipeout loss to President Ronald Reagan and Vice President George H.W. Bush, was quoted as saying that Sen. Obama would not be where he is if he were a "woman or any color or a white man."

When challenged about her remarks, she refused to repuditate them. Sen. Clinton did repudiate the remarks, and eventually Ms. Ferraro withdrew from the campaign. Sen. Obama called the remarks "wrong-headed," "ridiculous," and "divisive."

The comments set off a frenzy of punditry with one end of the spectrum saying it was Sen. Obama's talent not his race, (Joe Klein, Time) that has led him to the brink of the nomination. But others (Mickey Kaus, Slate) argue that part of Sen. Obama's appeal is his race and that if his face became America's to the world, quoting Mr. Kaus, it would "be an effective weapon in the fight against the demonization of America that fuels Islamist ideology."

This all follows last week's racially polarized voting in the Democratic primary in Mississippi where Sen. Obama won African-American voters by a 9-1 margin and lost white voters to Sen. Clinton by a 3-1 margin.

Most Americans find this kind of rhetoric and debate unsettling as the Democratic Party race increases in intensity and invective. Whether we like it or not, these racial back and forths have the potential to turn the race very ugly before its conclusion. Both sides in this race are going to have to find a way to cool down passions on what is becoming a heated subject as the nomination contest takes a perilous turn.

Still no settlement on the Florida or Michigan revotes; it looks as if a plan for Florida to vote by mail is not going to happen.