Alright, Already--The Prediction

I have been monitoring the trends in what is being called "Super Tuesday II"--the pivotal primary races in Texas and Ohio between Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. At stake is the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

If Sen. Obama continues his winning streak (he has won 11 straight contests) he will likely put a stranglehold on the nomination both in delegate strength and in political perception. If Senator Clinton wins, at least she'll stop the momentum and create the political perception that this race is not yet over.

At the RealClearPolitics.com delegate counter, Senator Obama leads with 1392 to Senator Clinton's 1279. This total includes the number of "pledged" delegates won in caucuses and primaries, and the publicly committed "superdelegates," those 796 Democratic Party insiders who are given delegate (and voting) status at the August convention.

The irony is that even if Sen. Clinton wins both elections tonight, she will probably not eat into Sen. Obama's lead very much. That is because of the proportional allocation of delegates awarded to candidates based on the popular vote. Secondly, in Texas, additional delegates will be awarded at a caucus following the primary. But you can only participate in a caucus if you can prove you voted in the primary! What a convoluted system!

That is why many analysts here are predicting that the only thing that would change if Sen. Clinton wins--except if she wins by a large margin--is the current political perception as Sen. Obama might actually increase his delegate totals even if he loses both states!

Nevertheless, it is becoming clearer that neither candidate will reach the magic number of 2,025 out of 4,049 total delegates (or something like that) based on their numbers heading into the Convention. The superdelegates would come into play as they would then have to cast ballots based on their beliefs of which candidate would be better for the party. Both sides are courting and threatening these delegates as the contest drags on.

The polls show a definite trend to the New York senator as she leads narrowly in Texas (47-44 Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby) and in most polls in Ohio, although Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby has Texas as a tie. Additionally, a few polls have Sen. Obama ahead in Ohio.

But compared to the recent gains by Sen. Obama, it is fair to say that Sen. Clinton has come back somewhat to pose a challenge. In past elections, every one that has been fairly close in the polls has gone to Sen. Obama convincingly. What about tonight?

If I had to guess (an educated one, but a guess) I would say that Democratic Party voters in Ohio and Texas still may not be sure of their choices between the two. They may want a longer campaign, and to do that, one has to cast a vote for Sen. Clinton. She has raised some questions about Sen. Obama's experience, and he has been caught in some shifting explanations about a senior campaign aide's interview with Canadian television over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Additionally, a corruption trial has opened up in Sen. Obama's home town of Chicago, which features as defendant, a man named Tony Rezko. Mr. Rezko was a fundraiser for Sen. Obama who is accused of extorting companies for money if they wanted to do business with various Ilinois state bodies.

He was involved in the purchase of land adjoining Sen. Obama's home in Chicago which was later sold to Sen. Obama, increasing the value of the senator's house. Sen. Obama is not charged with any wrongdoing and said the purchase of the land from Mr. Rezko could create the appearance of impropriety, and he added that, "I consider this a mistake on my part and I regret it."

The opening of the trial allowed reporters to start peppering Sen. Obama with adversarial questions and this marked the first time in months that the Illinois senator faced any kind of coverage that was less than gushing.

Add all these up, and I am going to say that Sen. Clinton wins Ohio and Texas by squeakers. We may not know the results for hours after the polls close if the races are tight. So in the sense that a win is a win, she will get two IMHO and fight on. But I think she remains an underdog in the nomination contest.

If she loses both states to Sen. Obama (as has been the pattern in the last 11 contests), I truly would join the chorus and say it is all but over. Apparently, she will hang in there and not concede defeat, but if she does not win these two states, I don't see how she convinces the 796 superdelegates that she somehow deserves the nomination over Sen. Obama.

On the Republican side, what normally would be a big story will take a back seat to the Democratic contest. Sen. John McCain of Arizona should go over the top tonight and secure his party's presidential nomination. He is leading heavily in polls in Ohio and Texas over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who should drop out after he sustains major losses in both states.

This is an incredible comeback story for Sen. McCain whose political obituary was all but writte last year. But he tightened his belt, kept the ship afloat, events broke his way (namely in Iraq) and he knocked off former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in primary elections. Fortunately for him, the Republicans had many "winner take all" contests, and his victories have propelled him to the brink of the nomination.

I will be live blogging the results as they come in about two hours or so, so come back, and if you can, tell your interested friends to come over and catch what's happening. Should be pretty exciting!