It’s been a while since Senator McCain clinched the nomination [March 4 with wins in Ohio and Texas] of his party. Since then, almost all the media focus has been on the titanic struggle between the two Democratic protagonists, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. But until April 22, when Senators Obama and Clinton face each other in Pennsylvania, there’s enough of a lull to take a look at what Senator McCain has been doing as he positions himself as his party’s standard bearer.
To begin with, Senator McCain won despite—not because off—his party’s conservative base which has never been friendly to him. Senator McCain’s stands on global warming (he recognizes it and calls for solutions], and campaign finance reform [the major piece of legislation for campaign finance reform bears his name], among others, are at wide variance with the Republican conservative base.
In fact, throughout the Republican Party presidential campaign, the conservatives would tell anyone who would listen what they didn’t like about the Arizona senator even while praising him as a great American for his service in Vietnam and his captivity in Hanoi as a POW.
But conservatives never had a candidate around whom they could rally; Fred Thompson, the former senator and actor, turned out to be a not-great campaigner; Mitt Romney’s deathbed conversion to conservative principles were viewed as too convenient; Rudy Giuliani’s conservative views on national security were not enough to overcome his liberal views on social policy. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee had great credentials on social policy but on domestic policy, he was more akin to a liberal government activist. And on and on.
So, while the conservative base was stewing, McCain was doing. He kept racking up win after win and before the conservatives could really do anything (except fulminate on talk radio and on their blogs), McCain was I, and became the nominee. Even then, conservatives were morose and their griping and sniping continued.
But now, the rumblings by conservatives have died down and while Senator McCain may never be a centerfold in conservative publications like National Review, he at least has begun to draw the party in around him as he faces uphill odds in his quest to hold the White House for the Republicans.
One doesn’t have to be a political Svengali to note that Republicans face numerous challenges in their attempt to keep their party’s brand at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The war in Iraq remains unpopular, there are troubling economic signs, and political history in America suggests that usually, two terms of a political party in the White House is enough. Add to that the excitement in the Democratic Party evidenced by increased registrations and fundraising, and you can see that the Arizonan has his work cut out for him.
But….
The surge in Iraq ordered by President Bush has worked to tamp down the levels of violence and while there is still not great support for the war, the numbers of Americans who think the U.S. could fulfill its goals in Iraq has been rising. Senator McCain was a supporter of the surge and likes to say that early on, he opposed the administration’s strategy in Iraq when it wasn’t working. In fact, you could argue that the surge has been the most helpful development in his presidential bid. Without it, he might be back at his Senate desk thinking of what might have been.
The economy has emerged as a major issue in the campaign and Senator McCain will need to focus on some domestic solutions for the housing situation, health care costs, increases in fossil fuel prices and the like. He has been painted as someone who is more at home with foreign affairs than domestic issues but that will have to change if he wants to take the oath of office at high noon on 1/20/09. There is evidence of that emerging.
Democrats are attempting to morph Senator McCain into the unpopular President George W.
Bush with attacks on the “Bush-McCain War” and the “Bush-McCain Foreign Policy.” Senator McCain is hoping his long history of opposing the Bush administration and his willingness to speak out in favor of ideas that are not exactly on the Republican Party’s radar screen (like global warming and campaign finance reform) will help him.
As one writer said, it is going to be delicate tightrope that Senator McCain must walk—not distancing himself too far from the president, but far enough to convince voters looking for change that he could be their guy.
This past week, the senator went on a trip to five countries in Europe and the Middle East that resulted in high-level meetings with foreign leaders. Europeans and Middle Easterners, according to press accounts of the trip, were wondering how different a President McCain would be from President Bush. The meetings may help them decide.
The trip received high marks save one reported mistake: Senator McCain said that Iran was training insurgents rather than Shiite extremists. This generated a few days of “gaffe” coverage, even though the senator quickly recovered with some help from traveling companion and fellow senator, Joe Lieberman, Democrat from Connecticut.
But even with the gaffe, Senator McCain is getting some precious quality time to take trips like these, discuss strategy and a vice presidential choice, and plot the campaign for the fall.
There have been some unfavorable articles about lobbyists and the senator’s ties to so-called “special interests,” but they haven’t had a lasting effect, if there was any effect at all.
He will come under pressure to satisfy the Republican Party base with the direction of his campaign, but there is another school of thought that says the nominee may instead focus on independents and those Democrats who would not be satisfied with the choice of their party.
Some polling data indicates that no matter who wins the Democratic Party’s presidential nod, some of the losing candidate’s supporters may consider tilting towards the GOP candidate in the fall. This seems particularly true of Senator Clinton’s supporters (based on foreign policy considerations) should Senator Obama take the nomination.
While most analysts believe the political tea leaves strongly favor the Democrats on Election Day, Republicans, while anxious, now feel they can at least make a fight of it and recent polls show a tight race between Senator McCain and Senators Clinton and Obama.
Senator McCain’s most difficult electoral challenge, according to some political observers, would not be against the Democrats in the fall, but against factions of his own political party in the summer.
We’ll stay tuned to see how Senator McCain faces this challenge and how it plays in the broader electorate.
As always, flip over to www.voanews.com for the latest. Over and out.
No comments:
Post a Comment