The Case That Senator McCain Can Make

So how does John McCain beat Barack Obama given the latter's incredible enthusiasm, momentum, charisma, and let's face it, adulatory media support?

Especially when it is easily viewed as a contest of young versus old, Washington veteran versus Washington rookie, "change" versus "reform," MSNBC versus Fox, and a huge money-raising machine versus a much-lesser money-raising machine?

Well, there are vulnerabilities that Senator Obama have and they were evident in the recently concluded campaign. This is not to say that these liabilities (at least in my view) are hard-wired and cannot be changed (or get worse), but they are there, and the McCain campaign will be taking a look at them.

The first is Senator Obama's willingness to leave Iraq no matter what. This is basically what defined his early campaign-unlike other Democrats in the race, especially Senators John Edwards and Hillary Clinton-he opposed the Iraq war while they initially voted for it in the U.S. Senate. This earned him the support of fervent anti-war activists in the Democratic Party of which there are legions. He became identified with this view and still sticks to it, although apparently with enough qualifiers to leave himself a little wiggle room should he be awarded the keys to the Oval Office.

But events on the ground in Iraq have changed markedly since Barack Obama first spoke out against the war in Iraq back in 2002 and while he continued his campaign in the U.S. Senate to bring American troops home. While people still debate whether the so-called "surge" (a marked increase in U.S. troops to cut down on casualties) has "worked," the fact is casualties have gone down and most analysts have concluded that the surge, at the very least, has improved the situation in Iraq.

While public opinion generally coalesces around the view that getting into the war was wrong or a mistake, there is variance among different polls about the course to take now-stay in, get out, get out immediately, get out later, stay until it's finished-you name it. But few Americans in polls want an immediate pullout; most want the troops out in less than a year, one or two years, or as one poll put it, they want the next president to be "flexible."

If the surge continues to consolidate the position that there is some progress being made in Iraq, then an immediate pullout or setting a hard and fast date may not be as strong a political position as it was a year or two ago. And Senator McCain can argue that Senator Obama would be "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory." That is going to be a difficult argument to make, but if events on the ground in Iraq continue to improve rather than deteriorate, the senator from Arizona can make such a case. Polls show most Americans don't want to surrender unilaterally.

Same for Senator Obama's positions on whether or not he would meet with America's most strident enemies. At first, he said he would do so without preconditions. Later that position was massaged and now he says he would meet with them only after groundwork was laid and certain conditions were met-which was the Hillary Clinton position, if I am not mistaken.

But it's a little muddy as to what he would do exactly, and again, Senator McCain would have an opening to prosecute his case for election based on whatever position Senator Obama has on the issue.

However, where Senator McCain could really make some inroads is with the groups in the Democratic Party who were "left behind" in the wake of the Obama victory. And again, these are based on demographics and exit polling: the base of Senator Obama's support is made up of educated, affluent white, younger liberals-the winners in the information economy-and those African-Americans inspired by the Obama campaign.

The losers in the information economy-laid off factory workers, voters who occupy rungs on the downscale economic ladder, those without higher education-in other words, the groups who made up what was once the bulk of the Democratic Party, have been lukewarm to Obama. In focus groups being held across the country, and in particular, states that Senator Obama lost in the primary campaign, voters are telling pollsters that they are intrigued with Senator Obama, but they don't know him. More importantly, they feel he doesn't know them.

The most obvious manifestation of this view came in April when Senator Obama told a fundraiser in San Francisco, California, "…small-town voters are bitter over the economy and, because of that, they 'cling' to guns and religion." These comments portrayed the senator as a liberal elitist far removed from those voters who live in small towns, go to church, and like to hunt and own guns.

While Senator Obama had belonged to a church for twenty years (and therein lies a whole other problem) and he has made comments about respecting such people, it's clear that when he thought no one was looking, his mask may have dropped a bit and the real liberal aloof Obama came out.

If these voters are truly in play, and Senator McCain can pick off a substantial portion of them, it could be a very close election, indeed.

Lastly, Senator Obama is perhaps the most liberal candidate nominated by the Democrats since 1972 when George McGovern got the nomination. Supporting universal health care with a strong dose of government intervention, repealing various tax cuts, and calling for massive spending programs on social issues, Senator McCain can draw a distinction between himself-a fiscal conservative-and Senator Obama, whom he will label a big spender that will by necessity, raise taxes.

Whether or not this argument works, whether Senator Obama will persuade Americans that the time has come for increased government spending on social programs (the electorate does seem to be more favorable to these kinds of initiatives than in the past) remains to be seen. But again, it is an opening that Senator McCain can use.

The issue may come down in the end, to, in most simple terms, "change" versus "reform," with Senator Obama offering the former, and Senator McCain, the latter. If Americans feel Senator Obama may be going too far, "reform" might be preferable to "change" with Senator McCain leading it.

As we head into the general election campaign, no one underestimates the challenges facing Senator McCain and the Republicans-an unpopular president, an unpopular war, an economy producing anxiety, and a feeling that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Add to that, the word, "Republican" is not a magnet for voters currently, the money advantage that Senator Obama is likely to have, and the excitement and media support that Senator Obama will attract, and the feeling that American voters are generally ready for a change in parties, and you can see, it's going to be tough for Senator McCain to win in November But not impossible; despite all the handicaps he has, he still runs a tight race with Senator Obama and people vote for people-not generic candidates with no name or history.

Many analysts believe that the Republican Party may have nominated the one candidate who actually has a chance to win, even though he is not beloved in his own party the way Ronald Reagan was. Nevertheless, it's not over until it's over, and while there is great excitement about the candidacy of Senator Obama, let's just say his election is not a sure thing; in fact, I think it's going to be a very close race.

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