The Political Environment

The issues in Election 2008 are changing almost weekly.

But it is becoming clear that the economy has overtaken Iraq (at least this week!) as the central issue in the campaign.

However, there are several aspects to the "economy" issue-the drop in the value of housing in the United States, which is related to the mortgage mess; globalization and its effect on jobs, particularly manufacturing jobs; but the most salient issue right now in the "economy" is the prince of energy.

Suddenly, it's energy policy that is being batted back and forth. With gasoline prices over $4 a gallon in the United States, the candidates are discussing how best to increase the U.S. supply of fuel and lower the cost. There are several alternatives but the current debate is focusing on offshore drilling, that is drilling off the coast of U.S. states where oil deposits are said to be.

Up to now, this has been an environmental no-no. But the high cost of gas has people-including at least one presidential candidate, John McCain-reversing field somewhat. Senator McCain, the Republican nominee in waiting, has been opposed to offshore drilling. But I think he and his campaign advisers sense an opportunity here to go one up on the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama.

Senator Obama opposes offshore drilling and hews to the traditional Democratic Party position that it is harmful to the environment and lines the pockets of big oil companies. He is joined in that view by the major environmental groups, like the Sierra Club, that usually back Democrats.

Most Americans favor environmental policies and the political power of voters who say they want to protect the environment is a potent force. This force has usually favored Democrats; ironically, Senator McCain is one of the few Republicans who even address the environment issue, so it is somewhat of a switch for him to be supporting offshore drilling.

He wouldn't make it a national policy; he would leave states to decide whether or not they want to do it. One of his principal backers, and a man who has been named as a possible running mate for the Arizona senator, is Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, a Republican who strongly opposes offshore drilling. If he indeed is nominated as VP, that could make for an interesting press conference if the energy question is asked.

But a recent poll by the Rasmussen organization showed that 67% of voters say drilling should be allowed off the coasts of states like California and Florida. Some 18% disagree with 15% are undecided. While conservative and moderate voters support this approach in strong numbers, what is interesting is that self-identified liberal voters approve, although by a plurality (46% in favor, 37% against).

Is this an issue that could work to Senator McCain's advantage? Or will the environment trump the price of gas?

One thing I have always thought about environmental supporters is that it's easy to be "in favor of the environment" when it doesn't cost anybody anything. I wonder how strong that "support" would be if, if Americans were forced to drive down their use of energy by 20 percent or so a year. What would they willingly give up? How much would they agree to sacrifice? A couple of hours of electricity a day? Driving on just a few days of the week? No microwaves or computers on weekends?

Who would have to do this? Would schools, hospitals, government, seniors be exempted? Could more affluent families buy a "carbon offset" that would allow them to use as much power as they wish (like Hollywood stars who pant over their environmental advocacy) and let somebody else bear the pain? Just asking… This election could prove to be an interesting test case to see just how far Americans' love of the environment goes.

Environmentalists will point out that there are ways to lower the price of gas without sacrificing the environment-through driving less, through the encouragement of renewable resources, through the development of more hybrids, etc.

And maybe that's true and achievable through more directed research.

But there's no place like a presidential campaign for these theories to be tested when there is actually something on the line. You want offshore drilling and the possibility of lower gas prices (though Democrats say it won't happen), vote for Senator McCain. You don't want offshore drilling because it ruins the environment (Republicans say offshore drilling can, thanks to newer technologies, have less of an impact on offshore ecosystem) and you're willing to gamble that green development and policies can lower gas prices? Vote for Senator Obama.

That should be an interesting debate this year unless a new issue emerges next week that sends the environment back to the end of the line and an entirely new debate breaks out!