Veepstakes and More

After a much criticized non-concession speech on Tuesday in Washington, it looks like Senator Hillary Clinton of New York will finally leave the race and endorse the Democratic nominee (let's forget "presumptive," "likely," and the other niceties now that it's over) Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. She is scheduled to do this in a speech either Friday or Saturday.

Then the speculation centers on the vice presidency for the Democrats. The current view is that Senator Clinton is "interested" and that Senator Obama is "willing" to talk with her about it. Those are both probably true. And those statements are about as far as anyone should be willing to go concerning Senator Obama's choice for a veep.

I have said so before in this space and I'll say it again-I would be majorly shocked if Senators Obama and Clinton wound up on the same ticket. While it is a dream of Democrats, it's one that will not come true, IMHO. For one thing, it would be a partnership in this sense: say someone owes you a lot of money that you need for a project. Suddenly you realize, you don't have a debtor, you have a "partner."

Senator Obama cannot be seen as being bullied into accepting Senator Clinton has a running mate. He can ask former Democratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale about this (see my post yesterday). Secondly, it's not entirely clear that Hillary Clinton wants the vice president's job, which one great American and former veep himself under Franklin Roosevelt, John Nance ("Texas Jack") Garner, called (and this is a paraphrase), "not worth a buck of warm 'spit'." Use your imagination to guess what the actual word was.

Additionally, it would be one of the most dysfunctional White Houses to hit Washington in decades. The two titans would create their own power bases and legions of courtiers who would vie against each other for power and influence. And with Hillary Clinton, you get Bill Clinton. Think Barack wants him anywhere near his Oval Office?

Lastly, I have come to the conclusion (shared by several analysts) that in the end, vice presidential candidates don't matter much (see John Nance Garner above). They don't usually help although they can hurt. In the end, voters will be focusing on the person at the top of the ticket…and with a hale, hearty and healthy 46 year-old leading the Democratic Party, well, you don't think much about the number two person, now do you? So, if Senator Obama feels he needs help with women voters, for instance, there are other candidates who come to mind. One such person's name tossed about is the female governor of Kansas, Katherine Sibelius.

But in the end, I think Senator Obama will go with a male who has strong foreign policy credentials, who is a little older and more experienced, and is widely viewed as a safe centrist. For me, former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson fits the bill but there are others. I don't think it will be Hillary Clinton, and if it somehow is, I don't think it will be the first choice of Senator Obama. You read it here first.

While most of the attention is on the Democratic candidate because of the historic nature of his victory, don't forget the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Since he clinched his party's nomination back in March, he's had time to ponder on just how he plans to run against the wunderkind. What's interesting to me is that despite the huge advantage Democrats now enjoy over Republicans in generic party preference (something like 12 points), the Obama-McCain race in presidential polling is fairly tight and has been throughout the primary season.

One reason is that we don't nominate generic candidates-we nominate flesh and blood human beings with their own pasts, foibles, strengths, and character. Right now, I think the American voting public is slightly leaning towards Senator Obama but his election is certainly no slam-dunk.

The latest tracking polls show a slight tilt towards Obama with one showing a slight tilt to McCain. A recent CBS poll shows a six-point Obama lead but that was with a survey of 930 registered voters. The other polls are in the 1200-4400 range so I trust them a little more. It will be interesting to see the Obama "bump" after he clinched the nomination with the adulatory press articles about the historic nature of his triumph. If that bump doesn't go way beyond five points, the McCain campaign should be breathing easier.

Although Obama seems like a strong candidate in the fall, given the current atmosphere of the electorate, there are some flaws and weaknesses, which were apparent in the last months of the primary campaign. I'll describe those in a subsequent post.

But for now, things are finally settling down and, as a result, voters will actually stop paying attention for awhile now that the candidates are set and the summer season has begun ("summer season" actually begins in the United States at the end of May and goes to the first weekend in September). Time to focus on friends, family, food, sun, and vacation. We'll keep an eye on the politics for you, but even I get caught up in the summer season; and we can all use a little breather after the long slog that was the presidential primary process.