Fairly big news over the weekend...
The Democratic National Committee, which oversees the Democratic Party, met in Washington today to discuss what to do with the states of Michigan and Florida. Democrats in Michigan and Florida held early primaries that were unsanctioned by the party and so their results did not count.
No candidate competed in either state and Senator Barack Obama's name was not on the ballot in Michigan. Senator Hillary Clinton won both contests and she wanted the results to stand which would bring her closer to Senator Obama in the popular vote and delegate totals.
Meeting today in Washington, the committee agreed to give each state's delegates a half-vote because neither campaign could force through the changes they wanted. The meeting was tense and often confrontational. It put Senator Obama ever closer to gaining the magic number (whatever that may be now) of delegates to claim the prize. He, according to one count, is only 66 delegates short.
Senator Clinton's campaign may still take the matter to the convention as her supporters were not pleased with the outcome. But then nobody thought anyone would.
In other news, Senator Obama says he will resign from the Trinity United Church in Chicago after another firey sermon from the church's pulpit. In this one, Father Michael Pfleger ridiculed Senator Clinton and that dredged up the incindiery sermons of Jeremiah Wright which ignited the entire controversy.
This move may have been overdue for Obama who now wants to put the entire episode behind him as he moves in for the nomination.
May 31, 2008
May 20, 2008
Is This The End for the Democrats
This could be a big night in the Democratic presidential primary race. With contests in Kentucky and Oregon, front-runner for the nomination, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, is poised to declare victory over his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York.
In the two races, Senator Obama will likely get creamed in Kentucky (Senator Clinton is up by 30 points in one count) but is ahead in Oregon by 10. Nevertheless, either he or his surrogates will claim that he is within 100 delegates of going "over the top," he leads in the number of votes cast in the primary process, and will be the nominee. Reports indicate he won't do it outright so as not to pressure Senator Clinton who still has a good deal of support in the party. This support, by the way, has been making itself more evident in recent days with full-page advertisements in major newspapers, urging her to stay in the race through the end of the primary season in June.
For her part, Senator Clinton shows no interest in leaving, and in fact, is claiming that she leads in the popular vote. She does this by including primary results in two states-Michigan and Florida-that held their contests earlier than the party leadership wanted, and as a result, were disenfranchised from the process. Senator Clinton, who won both contests handily, has been claiming for a long time that these states' votes should be counted. Senator Obama said that the rules specifically stated that the votes of these states would not count and to change in the rules in the middle of the game would be highly unfair.
It's a bit of complicated stretch but: if you count in the vote totals of Michigan and Florida, and do not count four states (Iowa, Washington, Maine, and Nevada) which have not released their popular vote totals yet, then Senator Clinton is in the lead in popular votes by nearly 30,000 out of 34.4 million cast, one-tenth of a percentage point advantage.
Additionally, the Clinton campaign is saying that Senator Obama needs to reach a delegate total of 2,209 (which includes the delegates from Michigan and Florida) instead of the 2,025, which does not include the delegate totals from those states.
Those supporting Senator Clinton have relentlessly been attacking the media for declaring Senator Obama as the nominee. Almost all networks and the print press have done this following last week's votes which featured Senator Obama's bigger-than-expected win in North Carolina and his closer-than-expected loss in Indiana. Nobody in the press is changing that meme very much and it is doubtful that tonight's results will alter any perceptions.
But we will be looking for what Senator Obama says following his expected win in Oregon and how close he comes to saying it's over.
FOOTNOTE: Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat from Massachusetts, brother to slain former President John F. Kennedy, and slain former New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy, has been diagnosed with brain cancer. Senator Kennedy, who is 76, suffered a seizure last Saturday, and was told he had a malignant brain tumor. The tumor (malignant glioma) is the most primary form of brain tumor and the senator will be treated with chemotherapy and radiation.
He is recognized as a "liberal lion" in the Senate and has served for more than 40 years. He ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 1980, challenging incumbent President Jimmy Carter.
In the two races, Senator Obama will likely get creamed in Kentucky (Senator Clinton is up by 30 points in one count) but is ahead in Oregon by 10. Nevertheless, either he or his surrogates will claim that he is within 100 delegates of going "over the top," he leads in the number of votes cast in the primary process, and will be the nominee. Reports indicate he won't do it outright so as not to pressure Senator Clinton who still has a good deal of support in the party. This support, by the way, has been making itself more evident in recent days with full-page advertisements in major newspapers, urging her to stay in the race through the end of the primary season in June.
For her part, Senator Clinton shows no interest in leaving, and in fact, is claiming that she leads in the popular vote. She does this by including primary results in two states-Michigan and Florida-that held their contests earlier than the party leadership wanted, and as a result, were disenfranchised from the process. Senator Clinton, who won both contests handily, has been claiming for a long time that these states' votes should be counted. Senator Obama said that the rules specifically stated that the votes of these states would not count and to change in the rules in the middle of the game would be highly unfair.
It's a bit of complicated stretch but: if you count in the vote totals of Michigan and Florida, and do not count four states (Iowa, Washington, Maine, and Nevada) which have not released their popular vote totals yet, then Senator Clinton is in the lead in popular votes by nearly 30,000 out of 34.4 million cast, one-tenth of a percentage point advantage.
Additionally, the Clinton campaign is saying that Senator Obama needs to reach a delegate total of 2,209 (which includes the delegates from Michigan and Florida) instead of the 2,025, which does not include the delegate totals from those states.
Those supporting Senator Clinton have relentlessly been attacking the media for declaring Senator Obama as the nominee. Almost all networks and the print press have done this following last week's votes which featured Senator Obama's bigger-than-expected win in North Carolina and his closer-than-expected loss in Indiana. Nobody in the press is changing that meme very much and it is doubtful that tonight's results will alter any perceptions.
But we will be looking for what Senator Obama says following his expected win in Oregon and how close he comes to saying it's over.
FOOTNOTE: Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat from Massachusetts, brother to slain former President John F. Kennedy, and slain former New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy, has been diagnosed with brain cancer. Senator Kennedy, who is 76, suffered a seizure last Saturday, and was told he had a malignant brain tumor. The tumor (malignant glioma) is the most primary form of brain tumor and the senator will be treated with chemotherapy and radiation.
He is recognized as a "liberal lion" in the Senate and has served for more than 40 years. He ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 1980, challenging incumbent President Jimmy Carter.
May 13, 2008
Big Win for Hillary Clinton Tonight in West Virginia
A big win for Hillary Clinton tonight in the West Virginia Primary, she won by something like 56-29. If this had come last week instead of the North Carolina primary's results, we would have a very different race.
While this will not change a lot on the ground regarding delegates, it may change the "narrative", that is, the press consensus on where the race is. It is true that Senator Barack Obama, the frontrunner and likely nominee, did not campaign much at all in West Virginia and wrote the state off, but the result shows he is still not connecting with a significant portion of the base of the Democratic Party. White, working class voters (both with and without college degrees) voted for Hillary Clinton in West Virginia. Worse yet, significant portions of these Clinton voters say if Senator Obama is the nominee, they will either not vote for president, or vote for likely Republican nominee John McCain in the fall.
While most analysts believe this will not happen, I am not so sure. The Obama campaign has to do some work to attract these voters in order to win. The campaign probably knows this and will try to affect these results but there is always the chance they will ignore these voters and build a new coalition that they think can win--African-Americans, liberals, youth, and those seeking a "change". That could be a winning coalition for sure, but I don't think you can write off at least half of the base of your party without some risk.
We'll see what the Obama camp does.
Meanwhile, this should be the first of several large-scale victories for Senator Clinton in the next couple of weeks. Too little, too late? Or will this (plus expected victories in Kentucky and elsewhere) have any impact on the race to come?
Stay tuned.
While this will not change a lot on the ground regarding delegates, it may change the "narrative", that is, the press consensus on where the race is. It is true that Senator Barack Obama, the frontrunner and likely nominee, did not campaign much at all in West Virginia and wrote the state off, but the result shows he is still not connecting with a significant portion of the base of the Democratic Party. White, working class voters (both with and without college degrees) voted for Hillary Clinton in West Virginia. Worse yet, significant portions of these Clinton voters say if Senator Obama is the nominee, they will either not vote for president, or vote for likely Republican nominee John McCain in the fall.
While most analysts believe this will not happen, I am not so sure. The Obama campaign has to do some work to attract these voters in order to win. The campaign probably knows this and will try to affect these results but there is always the chance they will ignore these voters and build a new coalition that they think can win--African-Americans, liberals, youth, and those seeking a "change". That could be a winning coalition for sure, but I don't think you can write off at least half of the base of your party without some risk.
We'll see what the Obama camp does.
Meanwhile, this should be the first of several large-scale victories for Senator Clinton in the next couple of weeks. Too little, too late? Or will this (plus expected victories in Kentucky and elsewhere) have any impact on the race to come?
Stay tuned.
May 7, 2008
The Party's Over?
Well, not only are the primaries in North Carolina and Indiana over, most likely, the Democratic Party's presidential nomination race is over, too. Yes, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York will keep campaigning and will pick up wins in places like West Virginia and Kentucky, but last night may have been the end for Senator Clinton and the day that Senator Barack Obama clinched his party's nomination.
That's because of the expectations game. To put it bluntly, by winning with a 14-point margin (56-42) in North Carolina, Senator Obama beat the expectations that it was going to be a race decided in single digits. And by losing in Indiana by only two points (51-49), he beat expectations again that Senator Clinton would win by a big margin in that state. It was a big night for him, and even though the races ended up split, it ended up being a not-so-good night for Senator Clinton.
The numbers are being crunched and it appears that Senator Obama did a little better among some of the groups he has been losing in the past. and Senator Clinton did a little worse. The actual numbers in these shifts weren't even all that great; the margins were slightly changed. But it was enough to make a huge difference.
In North Carolina, Senator Obama won African-Americans (a third of the Democratic Party primary electorate) by monolithic figures, something like 92-8. That's a huge margin to roll up at the very beginning. That would mean that Senator Clinton would have had to win voters who were not African-American by substantial margins. She just didn't do it. Maybe no one could have, given the demographic realities.
In Indiana, where there were not nearly as many African-American voters, Barack Obama did better among the groups he was losing than Senator Clinton did among the groups she was winning. And therein lies the difference.
But why did Senator Obama do better? He seems to have changed his tone somewhat and began trying to appeal to the kinds of voters that support Senator Clinton. Maybe that's why he went bowling (scoring an incredibly low 37!) and lowered the tone of his rhetoric, and didn't sound like a Harvard graduate but just a guy from down the street. While Senator Clinton still won these voter groups, she didn't win them by as much as she needed. It's not unlike a fighter ahead on points going into the last three rounds just holding on to lose each round by one point instead of two. Stay on your feet and you win. That is what Senator Obama did.
The pressure on Senator Clinton now to drop out will become intense and most analysts and political types have assumed the race is over. The Drudge Report showed a big picture of Senator Obama and his wife Michelle with the headline: The Nominee.
You can't say that's wrong; the results last night were very impressive, and it appears now that Senator Obama is getting ready to pivot into the general and not bother with Senator Clinton while taking aim at the Republican nominee (for all intents and purposes) Senator John McCain.
The one thing that may be worrying the Obama camp is the reports of how many of Senator Clinton's supporters say they won't vote for Obama in the general election. Given the conditions facing the Republican Party this year, it may not make a difference, but if it's a close race in November, any such defections could prove costly.
Senator Clinton will continue her campaign but the question is will the campaign continue with Senator Clinton or will it have moved on to the main event-Obama vs McCain-with the prize being the presidency. Last night's results say the main event is starting.
That's because of the expectations game. To put it bluntly, by winning with a 14-point margin (56-42) in North Carolina, Senator Obama beat the expectations that it was going to be a race decided in single digits. And by losing in Indiana by only two points (51-49), he beat expectations again that Senator Clinton would win by a big margin in that state. It was a big night for him, and even though the races ended up split, it ended up being a not-so-good night for Senator Clinton.
The numbers are being crunched and it appears that Senator Obama did a little better among some of the groups he has been losing in the past. and Senator Clinton did a little worse. The actual numbers in these shifts weren't even all that great; the margins were slightly changed. But it was enough to make a huge difference.
In North Carolina, Senator Obama won African-Americans (a third of the Democratic Party primary electorate) by monolithic figures, something like 92-8. That's a huge margin to roll up at the very beginning. That would mean that Senator Clinton would have had to win voters who were not African-American by substantial margins. She just didn't do it. Maybe no one could have, given the demographic realities.
In Indiana, where there were not nearly as many African-American voters, Barack Obama did better among the groups he was losing than Senator Clinton did among the groups she was winning. And therein lies the difference.
But why did Senator Obama do better? He seems to have changed his tone somewhat and began trying to appeal to the kinds of voters that support Senator Clinton. Maybe that's why he went bowling (scoring an incredibly low 37!) and lowered the tone of his rhetoric, and didn't sound like a Harvard graduate but just a guy from down the street. While Senator Clinton still won these voter groups, she didn't win them by as much as she needed. It's not unlike a fighter ahead on points going into the last three rounds just holding on to lose each round by one point instead of two. Stay on your feet and you win. That is what Senator Obama did.
The pressure on Senator Clinton now to drop out will become intense and most analysts and political types have assumed the race is over. The Drudge Report showed a big picture of Senator Obama and his wife Michelle with the headline: The Nominee.
You can't say that's wrong; the results last night were very impressive, and it appears now that Senator Obama is getting ready to pivot into the general and not bother with Senator Clinton while taking aim at the Republican nominee (for all intents and purposes) Senator John McCain.
The one thing that may be worrying the Obama camp is the reports of how many of Senator Clinton's supporters say they won't vote for Obama in the general election. Given the conditions facing the Republican Party this year, it may not make a difference, but if it's a close race in November, any such defections could prove costly.
Senator Clinton will continue her campaign but the question is will the campaign continue with Senator Clinton or will it have moved on to the main event-Obama vs McCain-with the prize being the presidency. Last night's results say the main event is starting.
May 6, 2008
Primary Preview
The polls in North Carolina are slated to close at 0030 UTC (7:30 pm EDT) and in Indiana at 2300 UTC (6:00 pm EDT) although 12 of Indiana's 92 counties are on Central time, so in those areas, polls will be open an hour later.
Hey, Indiana just adopted Daylight Savings Time a couple of years ago, so don't complain.
Nevertheless, in the runup to the voting, there is still some variance in survey data. Most polls have Senator Hillary Clinton of New York winning the Indiana primary by single digits (a few have it particularly close) and most polls have the overall frontrunner, Senator Barack Obama, winning North Carolina (although a couple of late breaking polls have it uncomfortably close for him, too).
The conventional wisdom so far is that a) turnout will be high in both elections; b) both candidates should win their respective primaries where they are favorites; c) nothing will change as a result and the political death march picks up on Wednesday in the Democratic Party.
But there are some things to look at that are interesting. Earlier today, the Clinton campaign was sadly telling reporters that they are staring at a 15-point defeat in North Carolina. They said they gave it their best shot, but the "demographics" of the state worked against them. That is a code phrase for saying there will be huge turnout of African-Americans and college-types who will overwhelmingly support Senator Obama and there aren't enough downscale voters to make up the difference.
The Drudge Report faithfully picked up the story and a huge headline plastered over the site said that the New York senator was headed for a double digit defeat.
However, it sounds to me like what the Clinton campaign is cleverly doing is lowering expectations for Senator Clinton in North Carolina to the point where anything less than a ten-point win could be claimed as a "victory" because she would beat the point spread. Some polls, including today's Insider Advantage poll put Senator Obama up by only four in N.C. Other polls have him comfortably ahead. It seems it's either feast or famine here-either he's ahead by double digits or just squeaking out a lead.
Needless to say, a defeat in North Carolina at the hands of Senator Clinton would be disastrous for the Obama campaign. But a win at low single digits wouldn't be a whole lot better. There will be much parsing of the exit polls (no data yet) and who voted for whom to get the real results from this primary.
Over in Indiana, it's practically a mirror image. The consensus is that Senator Clinton is going to win and some polls put her up by double digits; the Insider Advantage poll puts her up by four. One or two predict an Obama win.
I still am going to go with my first prediction and that's Senator Obama in N.C. by under ten and Senator Clinton over Senator Obama in Indiana by the same margin. As we go up and down the victory scale (how many points the candidate won or lost by), that could prove to be interesting. I'll have some early polls and exit data when I can.
Meanwhile, Senator John McCain (remember him?) who will be the Republican nominee, gave a pretty important speech this week. He spoke at Wake Forest University (that's also in N.C.) about an issue that is near and dear to the hearts of conservatives in the Republican Party…and that is the power of the president to appoint judges, especially to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Republicans who pay attention to this (and there are plenty of them) believe that their presidents (particularly President Bush's father-George H.W. Bush) failed conservatives by appointing justices who were sold as conservative but decided as liberals. With Republicans winning seven of the last nine presidential elections, a true conservative impact on the court was felt only under the two terms of President George W. Bush who appointed now-Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Sam Alito. Both were confirmed (but not without fights) and have been reliable conservatives on the Court.
Republicans feel that Democrats appoint so-called "judicial activists" who re-interpret the Constitution based on personal convictions rather than constitutional law and principles. Democrats in recent years have been making similar charges against the Republicans and the stakes on court cases are high, given the often-crucial cases on social policy that reach the Supremes.
In his speech at Wake Forest, Senator McCain said, "There are still men and women who understand the proper role of our judiciary. And I intend to find them, and promote them, if I am elected president."
It has been said that Senator McCain needs to reach out to the conservatives who make up the base of the party and who have often been at odds with the "maverick" who talks about global warming and campaign finance reform, both issues that trouble many conservatives. But it is the judicial issue where Senator McCain can connect with these Republican Party conservatives-if they believe he will appoint candidates who have the "proper role" of the judiciary in mind.
There is some evidence that Republican conservatives, if not wildly supporting the candidacy of Senator McCain, are at least "coming home" and plan to vote for him in the general election. He is fortunate that as the presumed nominee, he has a chance to do this under the radar screen of the mainstream media which is busy chronicling every utterance in the Obama-Clinton contest.
In some ways, the true beneficiary of this prolonged contest in the Democratic Party may be the Republican. I'll have more as results and exit polls start to trickle in later.
Hey, Indiana just adopted Daylight Savings Time a couple of years ago, so don't complain.
Nevertheless, in the runup to the voting, there is still some variance in survey data. Most polls have Senator Hillary Clinton of New York winning the Indiana primary by single digits (a few have it particularly close) and most polls have the overall frontrunner, Senator Barack Obama, winning North Carolina (although a couple of late breaking polls have it uncomfortably close for him, too).
The conventional wisdom so far is that a) turnout will be high in both elections; b) both candidates should win their respective primaries where they are favorites; c) nothing will change as a result and the political death march picks up on Wednesday in the Democratic Party.
But there are some things to look at that are interesting. Earlier today, the Clinton campaign was sadly telling reporters that they are staring at a 15-point defeat in North Carolina. They said they gave it their best shot, but the "demographics" of the state worked against them. That is a code phrase for saying there will be huge turnout of African-Americans and college-types who will overwhelmingly support Senator Obama and there aren't enough downscale voters to make up the difference.
The Drudge Report faithfully picked up the story and a huge headline plastered over the site said that the New York senator was headed for a double digit defeat.
However, it sounds to me like what the Clinton campaign is cleverly doing is lowering expectations for Senator Clinton in North Carolina to the point where anything less than a ten-point win could be claimed as a "victory" because she would beat the point spread. Some polls, including today's Insider Advantage poll put Senator Obama up by only four in N.C. Other polls have him comfortably ahead. It seems it's either feast or famine here-either he's ahead by double digits or just squeaking out a lead.
Needless to say, a defeat in North Carolina at the hands of Senator Clinton would be disastrous for the Obama campaign. But a win at low single digits wouldn't be a whole lot better. There will be much parsing of the exit polls (no data yet) and who voted for whom to get the real results from this primary.
Over in Indiana, it's practically a mirror image. The consensus is that Senator Clinton is going to win and some polls put her up by double digits; the Insider Advantage poll puts her up by four. One or two predict an Obama win.
I still am going to go with my first prediction and that's Senator Obama in N.C. by under ten and Senator Clinton over Senator Obama in Indiana by the same margin. As we go up and down the victory scale (how many points the candidate won or lost by), that could prove to be interesting. I'll have some early polls and exit data when I can.
Meanwhile, Senator John McCain (remember him?) who will be the Republican nominee, gave a pretty important speech this week. He spoke at Wake Forest University (that's also in N.C.) about an issue that is near and dear to the hearts of conservatives in the Republican Party…and that is the power of the president to appoint judges, especially to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Republicans who pay attention to this (and there are plenty of them) believe that their presidents (particularly President Bush's father-George H.W. Bush) failed conservatives by appointing justices who were sold as conservative but decided as liberals. With Republicans winning seven of the last nine presidential elections, a true conservative impact on the court was felt only under the two terms of President George W. Bush who appointed now-Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Sam Alito. Both were confirmed (but not without fights) and have been reliable conservatives on the Court.
Republicans feel that Democrats appoint so-called "judicial activists" who re-interpret the Constitution based on personal convictions rather than constitutional law and principles. Democrats in recent years have been making similar charges against the Republicans and the stakes on court cases are high, given the often-crucial cases on social policy that reach the Supremes.
In his speech at Wake Forest, Senator McCain said, "There are still men and women who understand the proper role of our judiciary. And I intend to find them, and promote them, if I am elected president."
It has been said that Senator McCain needs to reach out to the conservatives who make up the base of the party and who have often been at odds with the "maverick" who talks about global warming and campaign finance reform, both issues that trouble many conservatives. But it is the judicial issue where Senator McCain can connect with these Republican Party conservatives-if they believe he will appoint candidates who have the "proper role" of the judiciary in mind.
There is some evidence that Republican conservatives, if not wildly supporting the candidacy of Senator McCain, are at least "coming home" and plan to vote for him in the general election. He is fortunate that as the presumed nominee, he has a chance to do this under the radar screen of the mainstream media which is busy chronicling every utterance in the Obama-Clinton contest.
In some ways, the true beneficiary of this prolonged contest in the Democratic Party may be the Republican. I'll have more as results and exit polls start to trickle in later.
May 5, 2008
North Carolina and Indiana
Going into Tuesday's critical primary elections (when haven't I not written that phrase?) in Indiana and North Carolina, the consensus view is that the front runner for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, will win in North Carolina, and his challenger, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, will win in Indiana. The polls tend to bear this out going into Tuesday.
But…and there's always the big but….there is in politics an element of surprise and expectations. Sen. Clinton's advisers were playing that game today when they told the press that Sen. Obama had long been expected to win both states and that his former 17-point lead (on average) in North Carolina had been pared down to under ten; in some cases, it was under five. So, even if Sen. Clinton loses in North Carolina, it's by how many points she loses, and if she wins in Indiana (like she is expected to do), it will be a great night for her.
This is likely to be the scenario on Tuesday, as it is true that Senator Clinton closed a huge gap in the polls in North Carolina. It is not beyond the realm of possibility she could even win. One thing has become clear in these races and that is that the polling has not always been accurate, particularly where Sen. Obama is concerned. In some of the races, he has performed better in the polls than at the polls. Racism? People uncomfortable telling strangers with clipboards that they plan to vote against an African-American? Perhaps a bit of both, but while I think Sen. Obama will pull out a victory in North Carolina (due to his massive vote getting ability among African-Americans who will make up around a third of the Democratic Party primary electorate), it won't be by over ten points, and I expect that to be spun in Sen. Clinton's direction.
I think she will win Indiana by 5 to 10 points so that puts everybody back at square one on Wednesday. There is no doubt the race will continue and the next major states on the calendar (West Virginia on May 13 and Oregon and Kentucky on May 20) augur well for Sen. Clinton. She should win West Virginia and Kentucky handily, Oregon should be Obama territory.
But if either candidate wins both Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow, that could be the turning point that Democratic Party chieftains have been praying for, at least in the case of Sen. Obama. If he were to win both states, the party's non-elected but vote-casting "superdelegates" would flock to him because he defeated Senator Clinton in a state where she should have won. However if Senator Clinton wins both, that would send tremors down the party's spine as it would mean, as one writer put it recently, the good ship Obama would be listing and taking on water. Worse yet, that would put those superdelegates in a tight spot-vote against the first legitimate African-American presidential candidate and kiss goodbye any black support in the polls, no matter what they may think would happen in November.
And if Senator Obama does lose both, he can thank his former pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, whose incendiary statements, long-time ties to the junior senator from Illinois, and his recent press junket may have cost Sen. Obama tens of thousands of votes. But I'm getting ahead of myself.
Again, I think N.C. is going to be tight but I would bet that Sen. Obama holds on, therefore "tainting" his win a bit; and I think Sen. Clinton wins a workmanlike race in Indiana. We'll see on Tuesday. I'll be posting results and analysis.
But…and there's always the big but….there is in politics an element of surprise and expectations. Sen. Clinton's advisers were playing that game today when they told the press that Sen. Obama had long been expected to win both states and that his former 17-point lead (on average) in North Carolina had been pared down to under ten; in some cases, it was under five. So, even if Sen. Clinton loses in North Carolina, it's by how many points she loses, and if she wins in Indiana (like she is expected to do), it will be a great night for her.
This is likely to be the scenario on Tuesday, as it is true that Senator Clinton closed a huge gap in the polls in North Carolina. It is not beyond the realm of possibility she could even win. One thing has become clear in these races and that is that the polling has not always been accurate, particularly where Sen. Obama is concerned. In some of the races, he has performed better in the polls than at the polls. Racism? People uncomfortable telling strangers with clipboards that they plan to vote against an African-American? Perhaps a bit of both, but while I think Sen. Obama will pull out a victory in North Carolina (due to his massive vote getting ability among African-Americans who will make up around a third of the Democratic Party primary electorate), it won't be by over ten points, and I expect that to be spun in Sen. Clinton's direction.
I think she will win Indiana by 5 to 10 points so that puts everybody back at square one on Wednesday. There is no doubt the race will continue and the next major states on the calendar (West Virginia on May 13 and Oregon and Kentucky on May 20) augur well for Sen. Clinton. She should win West Virginia and Kentucky handily, Oregon should be Obama territory.
But if either candidate wins both Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow, that could be the turning point that Democratic Party chieftains have been praying for, at least in the case of Sen. Obama. If he were to win both states, the party's non-elected but vote-casting "superdelegates" would flock to him because he defeated Senator Clinton in a state where she should have won. However if Senator Clinton wins both, that would send tremors down the party's spine as it would mean, as one writer put it recently, the good ship Obama would be listing and taking on water. Worse yet, that would put those superdelegates in a tight spot-vote against the first legitimate African-American presidential candidate and kiss goodbye any black support in the polls, no matter what they may think would happen in November.
And if Senator Obama does lose both, he can thank his former pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, whose incendiary statements, long-time ties to the junior senator from Illinois, and his recent press junket may have cost Sen. Obama tens of thousands of votes. But I'm getting ahead of myself.
Again, I think N.C. is going to be tight but I would bet that Sen. Obama holds on, therefore "tainting" his win a bit; and I think Sen. Clinton wins a workmanlike race in Indiana. We'll see on Tuesday. I'll be posting results and analysis.
May 2, 2008
Heading into Tuesday
As we head into Tuesday's primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, a couple of things are becoming clearer-the controversy over Senator Barack Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright-has hurt the front runner who is seeking to wrap up the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. It's shown up in polls, surveys, and anecdotal data.
The press coverage around Senator Obama has changed markedly. No longer is he the savior who causes tingles and chills in political reporters. At times, he has been testy and while his most ardent followers accept his mea culpas about the remarks of the Rev. Wright ("outrageous") others on the fence don't seem so sure.
While Senator Obama has been steadily converting the so-called "superdelegates" who may be called on to cast ballots if, as likely, neither Senator Obama nor Senator Hillary Clinton of New York amass enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the political convention in August, he suddenly seems much less of a clear winner than he did even a couple of weeks ago.
For instance, today (May 2), the Gallup Polling organization reported that its presidential daily tracking data showed the likely Republican Party nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, beating Senator Obama in a fall election by six points (48-42) while Senator McCain leads Senator Clinton for the fall by one point, 46-45.
The obvious conclusion is that the longer Senators Obama and Clinton go at each other, the beneficiary is Senator McCain. Most analysts still say that when the Democrats finally settle on a nominee, the party will unite behind the candidate. But you could drive a truck through the terms, "finally settle" and exactly what that will mean. More and more, you hear voters for one candidate swear they will desert the party if their choice loses. I first dismissed a lot of this, but the more I hear it, the more I tend to believe it's possible.
There is a lot being written and said that the controversy over Rev. Wright is truly a "distraction" from the "real" issues that Americans care about-health policy, the war in Iraq, the economy, the food crisis, etc. It is the press and media which fixate on these so-called meaningless disputes that make for good stories but little else.
Here, I must dissent. Having covered American politics for more than 25 years, and having spoken to thousands of voters in that time (and I'm one myself!), I can say that controversies like Reverend Wright do matter. Here's why:
The American president is not just a national version of a county manager-that is, the person in charge of the Oval Office is more than someone who merely selects and implements a policy to solve problems. No, sir. The president has that role, of course, but the symbolic nature of the Chief Executive is even more important. Our president is head of the government, head of state, and also serves as an embodiment of ourselves. He or she will be the epitome of what it is to be "American". This person is going to be in our living rooms nightly for the next four years. The president will inspire us, call on us for sacrifice, scold us at times, and urge us on to make the country a better place. We have to "like", if not actually love the person who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. We want to feel comfortable with the person who occupies the White House.
This calls for a unique set of skills which falls under the rubric of character. What kind of person is this candidate? How truthful? What has this person gone through in life? Am I inspired? Can I believe what is said? What does the body language give off? How are ordinary citizens treated? Can the press be handled? Is this person "presidential"?
Those who think these things don't matter don't understand the office of the presidency.
Do you think Americans actually pore through the policy positions of the candidates on health care and compare them? Most Americans realize that the promises and papers ground out during the campaign mean little. These proposals have a way of disappearing like the morning dew on a blistering hot day once an administration takes office. They are usually vague and sound alike, even coming from different candidates. But the character of the candidate doesn't change, and therein lies the true measure by which a voter can judge for whom he is going to cast a ballot. And incidents like the Wright controversy and Senator Obama's responses to them, or Senator Clinton's imagined landing under sniper fire in Tuzla, or Senator McCain's relationship to President George Bush, may mean more to a voter than another ten-point plan for curing whatever.
So while advocates for one candidate or another may grind teeth at what appear to be inane issues at time when so much needs to be discussed and debated, it truly does matter. That's what people talk about around the water cooler or on the way to work…and that's what can decide nominations and elections.
We will see how this impacts the voting on Tuesday. No matter what, the presidential contest in the Democratic Party will likely go on. There will be a major impact on the race should one candidate lose the two races on Tuesday. Of course, Senator Obama can afford to lose the two and keep going. It would be a devastating loss, but at the end of the day, he would still be ahead in delegates and probably in the popular vote. But it would be a warning sign and could serve as a touchstone for Senator Clinton to rack up further victories in the remaining primaries, putting the supers on the spot.
If Senator Clinton loses both, you can bet there will be more cries for her to leave the race, although it appears she is committed to carrying on. A split decision, and not much changes.
If the results fall in between, I'll be around to interpret them for you. Stay tuned.
The press coverage around Senator Obama has changed markedly. No longer is he the savior who causes tingles and chills in political reporters. At times, he has been testy and while his most ardent followers accept his mea culpas about the remarks of the Rev. Wright ("outrageous") others on the fence don't seem so sure.
While Senator Obama has been steadily converting the so-called "superdelegates" who may be called on to cast ballots if, as likely, neither Senator Obama nor Senator Hillary Clinton of New York amass enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the political convention in August, he suddenly seems much less of a clear winner than he did even a couple of weeks ago.
For instance, today (May 2), the Gallup Polling organization reported that its presidential daily tracking data showed the likely Republican Party nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, beating Senator Obama in a fall election by six points (48-42) while Senator McCain leads Senator Clinton for the fall by one point, 46-45.
The obvious conclusion is that the longer Senators Obama and Clinton go at each other, the beneficiary is Senator McCain. Most analysts still say that when the Democrats finally settle on a nominee, the party will unite behind the candidate. But you could drive a truck through the terms, "finally settle" and exactly what that will mean. More and more, you hear voters for one candidate swear they will desert the party if their choice loses. I first dismissed a lot of this, but the more I hear it, the more I tend to believe it's possible.
There is a lot being written and said that the controversy over Rev. Wright is truly a "distraction" from the "real" issues that Americans care about-health policy, the war in Iraq, the economy, the food crisis, etc. It is the press and media which fixate on these so-called meaningless disputes that make for good stories but little else.
Here, I must dissent. Having covered American politics for more than 25 years, and having spoken to thousands of voters in that time (and I'm one myself!), I can say that controversies like Reverend Wright do matter. Here's why:
The American president is not just a national version of a county manager-that is, the person in charge of the Oval Office is more than someone who merely selects and implements a policy to solve problems. No, sir. The president has that role, of course, but the symbolic nature of the Chief Executive is even more important. Our president is head of the government, head of state, and also serves as an embodiment of ourselves. He or she will be the epitome of what it is to be "American". This person is going to be in our living rooms nightly for the next four years. The president will inspire us, call on us for sacrifice, scold us at times, and urge us on to make the country a better place. We have to "like", if not actually love the person who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. We want to feel comfortable with the person who occupies the White House.
This calls for a unique set of skills which falls under the rubric of character. What kind of person is this candidate? How truthful? What has this person gone through in life? Am I inspired? Can I believe what is said? What does the body language give off? How are ordinary citizens treated? Can the press be handled? Is this person "presidential"?
Those who think these things don't matter don't understand the office of the presidency.
Do you think Americans actually pore through the policy positions of the candidates on health care and compare them? Most Americans realize that the promises and papers ground out during the campaign mean little. These proposals have a way of disappearing like the morning dew on a blistering hot day once an administration takes office. They are usually vague and sound alike, even coming from different candidates. But the character of the candidate doesn't change, and therein lies the true measure by which a voter can judge for whom he is going to cast a ballot. And incidents like the Wright controversy and Senator Obama's responses to them, or Senator Clinton's imagined landing under sniper fire in Tuzla, or Senator McCain's relationship to President George Bush, may mean more to a voter than another ten-point plan for curing whatever.
So while advocates for one candidate or another may grind teeth at what appear to be inane issues at time when so much needs to be discussed and debated, it truly does matter. That's what people talk about around the water cooler or on the way to work…and that's what can decide nominations and elections.
We will see how this impacts the voting on Tuesday. No matter what, the presidential contest in the Democratic Party will likely go on. There will be a major impact on the race should one candidate lose the two races on Tuesday. Of course, Senator Obama can afford to lose the two and keep going. It would be a devastating loss, but at the end of the day, he would still be ahead in delegates and probably in the popular vote. But it would be a warning sign and could serve as a touchstone for Senator Clinton to rack up further victories in the remaining primaries, putting the supers on the spot.
If Senator Clinton loses both, you can bet there will be more cries for her to leave the race, although it appears she is committed to carrying on. A split decision, and not much changes.
If the results fall in between, I'll be around to interpret them for you. Stay tuned.
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