The Party's Over?

Well, not only are the primaries in North Carolina and Indiana over, most likely, the Democratic Party's presidential nomination race is over, too. Yes, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York will keep campaigning and will pick up wins in places like West Virginia and Kentucky, but last night may have been the end for Senator Clinton and the day that Senator Barack Obama clinched his party's nomination.

That's because of the expectations game. To put it bluntly, by winning with a 14-point margin (56-42) in North Carolina, Senator Obama beat the expectations that it was going to be a race decided in single digits. And by losing in Indiana by only two points (51-49), he beat expectations again that Senator Clinton would win by a big margin in that state. It was a big night for him, and even though the races ended up split, it ended up being a not-so-good night for Senator Clinton.

The numbers are being crunched and it appears that Senator Obama did a little better among some of the groups he has been losing in the past. and Senator Clinton did a little worse. The actual numbers in these shifts weren't even all that great; the margins were slightly changed. But it was enough to make a huge difference.

In North Carolina, Senator Obama won African-Americans (a third of the Democratic Party primary electorate) by monolithic figures, something like 92-8. That's a huge margin to roll up at the very beginning. That would mean that Senator Clinton would have had to win voters who were not African-American by substantial margins. She just didn't do it. Maybe no one could have, given the demographic realities.

In Indiana, where there were not nearly as many African-American voters, Barack Obama did better among the groups he was losing than Senator Clinton did among the groups she was winning. And therein lies the difference.

But why did Senator Obama do better? He seems to have changed his tone somewhat and began trying to appeal to the kinds of voters that support Senator Clinton. Maybe that's why he went bowling (scoring an incredibly low 37!) and lowered the tone of his rhetoric, and didn't sound like a Harvard graduate but just a guy from down the street. While Senator Clinton still won these voter groups, she didn't win them by as much as she needed. It's not unlike a fighter ahead on points going into the last three rounds just holding on to lose each round by one point instead of two. Stay on your feet and you win. That is what Senator Obama did.

The pressure on Senator Clinton now to drop out will become intense and most analysts and political types have assumed the race is over. The Drudge Report showed a big picture of Senator Obama and his wife Michelle with the headline: The Nominee.

You can't say that's wrong; the results last night were very impressive, and it appears now that Senator Obama is getting ready to pivot into the general and not bother with Senator Clinton while taking aim at the Republican nominee (for all intents and purposes) Senator John McCain.

The one thing that may be worrying the Obama camp is the reports of how many of Senator Clinton's supporters say they won't vote for Obama in the general election. Given the conditions facing the Republican Party this year, it may not make a difference, but if it's a close race in November, any such defections could prove costly.

Senator Clinton will continue her campaign but the question is will the campaign continue with Senator Clinton or will it have moved on to the main event-Obama vs McCain-with the prize being the presidency. Last night's results say the main event is starting.