Is This The End for the Democrats

This could be a big night in the Democratic presidential primary race. With contests in Kentucky and Oregon, front-runner for the nomination, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, is poised to declare victory over his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York.

In the two races, Senator Obama will likely get creamed in Kentucky (Senator Clinton is up by 30 points in one count) but is ahead in Oregon by 10. Nevertheless, either he or his surrogates will claim that he is within 100 delegates of going "over the top," he leads in the number of votes cast in the primary process, and will be the nominee. Reports indicate he won't do it outright so as not to pressure Senator Clinton who still has a good deal of support in the party. This support, by the way, has been making itself more evident in recent days with full-page advertisements in major newspapers, urging her to stay in the race through the end of the primary season in June.

For her part, Senator Clinton shows no interest in leaving, and in fact, is claiming that she leads in the popular vote. She does this by including primary results in two states-Michigan and Florida-that held their contests earlier than the party leadership wanted, and as a result, were disenfranchised from the process. Senator Clinton, who won both contests handily, has been claiming for a long time that these states' votes should be counted. Senator Obama said that the rules specifically stated that the votes of these states would not count and to change in the rules in the middle of the game would be highly unfair.

It's a bit of complicated stretch but: if you count in the vote totals of Michigan and Florida, and do not count four states (Iowa, Washington, Maine, and Nevada) which have not released their popular vote totals yet, then Senator Clinton is in the lead in popular votes by nearly 30,000 out of 34.4 million cast, one-tenth of a percentage point advantage.

Additionally, the Clinton campaign is saying that Senator Obama needs to reach a delegate total of 2,209 (which includes the delegates from Michigan and Florida) instead of the 2,025, which does not include the delegate totals from those states.

Those supporting Senator Clinton have relentlessly been attacking the media for declaring Senator Obama as the nominee. Almost all networks and the print press have done this following last week's votes which featured Senator Obama's bigger-than-expected win in North Carolina and his closer-than-expected loss in Indiana. Nobody in the press is changing that meme very much and it is doubtful that tonight's results will alter any perceptions.

But we will be looking for what Senator Obama says following his expected win in Oregon and how close he comes to saying it's over.

FOOTNOTE: Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat from Massachusetts, brother to slain former President John F. Kennedy, and slain former New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy, has been diagnosed with brain cancer. Senator Kennedy, who is 76, suffered a seizure last Saturday, and was told he had a malignant brain tumor. The tumor (malignant glioma) is the most primary form of brain tumor and the senator will be treated with chemotherapy and radiation.

He is recognized as a "liberal lion" in the Senate and has served for more than 40 years. He ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 1980, challenging incumbent President Jimmy Carter.