North Carolina and Indiana

Going into Tuesday's critical primary elections (when haven't I not written that phrase?) in Indiana and North Carolina, the consensus view is that the front runner for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, will win in North Carolina, and his challenger, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, will win in Indiana. The polls tend to bear this out going into Tuesday.

But…and there's always the big but….there is in politics an element of surprise and expectations. Sen. Clinton's advisers were playing that game today when they told the press that Sen. Obama had long been expected to win both states and that his former 17-point lead (on average) in North Carolina had been pared down to under ten; in some cases, it was under five. So, even if Sen. Clinton loses in North Carolina, it's by how many points she loses, and if she wins in Indiana (like she is expected to do), it will be a great night for her.

This is likely to be the scenario on Tuesday, as it is true that Senator Clinton closed a huge gap in the polls in North Carolina. It is not beyond the realm of possibility she could even win. One thing has become clear in these races and that is that the polling has not always been accurate, particularly where Sen. Obama is concerned. In some of the races, he has performed better in the polls than at the polls. Racism? People uncomfortable telling strangers with clipboards that they plan to vote against an African-American? Perhaps a bit of both, but while I think Sen. Obama will pull out a victory in North Carolina (due to his massive vote getting ability among African-Americans who will make up around a third of the Democratic Party primary electorate), it won't be by over ten points, and I expect that to be spun in Sen. Clinton's direction.

I think she will win Indiana by 5 to 10 points so that puts everybody back at square one on Wednesday. There is no doubt the race will continue and the next major states on the calendar (West Virginia on May 13 and Oregon and Kentucky on May 20) augur well for Sen. Clinton. She should win West Virginia and Kentucky handily, Oregon should be Obama territory.

But if either candidate wins both Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow, that could be the turning point that Democratic Party chieftains have been praying for, at least in the case of Sen. Obama. If he were to win both states, the party's non-elected but vote-casting "superdelegates" would flock to him because he defeated Senator Clinton in a state where she should have won. However if Senator Clinton wins both, that would send tremors down the party's spine as it would mean, as one writer put it recently, the good ship Obama would be listing and taking on water. Worse yet, that would put those superdelegates in a tight spot-vote against the first legitimate African-American presidential candidate and kiss goodbye any black support in the polls, no matter what they may think would happen in November.

And if Senator Obama does lose both, he can thank his former pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, whose incendiary statements, long-time ties to the junior senator from Illinois, and his recent press junket may have cost Sen. Obama tens of thousands of votes. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

Again, I think N.C. is going to be tight but I would bet that Sen. Obama holds on, therefore "tainting" his win a bit; and I think Sen. Clinton wins a workmanlike race in Indiana. We'll see on Tuesday. I'll be posting results and analysis.