Primary Preview

The polls in North Carolina are slated to close at 0030 UTC (7:30 pm EDT) and in Indiana at 2300 UTC (6:00 pm EDT) although 12 of Indiana's 92 counties are on Central time, so in those areas, polls will be open an hour later.

Hey, Indiana just adopted Daylight Savings Time a couple of years ago, so don't complain.

Nevertheless, in the runup to the voting, there is still some variance in survey data. Most polls have Senator Hillary Clinton of New York winning the Indiana primary by single digits (a few have it particularly close) and most polls have the overall frontrunner, Senator Barack Obama, winning North Carolina (although a couple of late breaking polls have it uncomfortably close for him, too).

The conventional wisdom so far is that a) turnout will be high in both elections; b) both candidates should win their respective primaries where they are favorites; c) nothing will change as a result and the political death march picks up on Wednesday in the Democratic Party.

But there are some things to look at that are interesting. Earlier today, the Clinton campaign was sadly telling reporters that they are staring at a 15-point defeat in North Carolina. They said they gave it their best shot, but the "demographics" of the state worked against them. That is a code phrase for saying there will be huge turnout of African-Americans and college-types who will overwhelmingly support Senator Obama and there aren't enough downscale voters to make up the difference.

The Drudge Report faithfully picked up the story and a huge headline plastered over the site said that the New York senator was headed for a double digit defeat.

However, it sounds to me like what the Clinton campaign is cleverly doing is lowering expectations for Senator Clinton in North Carolina to the point where anything less than a ten-point win could be claimed as a "victory" because she would beat the point spread. Some polls, including today's Insider Advantage poll put Senator Obama up by only four in N.C. Other polls have him comfortably ahead. It seems it's either feast or famine here-either he's ahead by double digits or just squeaking out a lead.

Needless to say, a defeat in North Carolina at the hands of Senator Clinton would be disastrous for the Obama campaign. But a win at low single digits wouldn't be a whole lot better. There will be much parsing of the exit polls (no data yet) and who voted for whom to get the real results from this primary.

Over in Indiana, it's practically a mirror image. The consensus is that Senator Clinton is going to win and some polls put her up by double digits; the Insider Advantage poll puts her up by four. One or two predict an Obama win.

I still am going to go with my first prediction and that's Senator Obama in N.C. by under ten and Senator Clinton over Senator Obama in Indiana by the same margin. As we go up and down the victory scale (how many points the candidate won or lost by), that could prove to be interesting. I'll have some early polls and exit data when I can.

Meanwhile, Senator John McCain (remember him?) who will be the Republican nominee, gave a pretty important speech this week. He spoke at Wake Forest University (that's also in N.C.) about an issue that is near and dear to the hearts of conservatives in the Republican Party…and that is the power of the president to appoint judges, especially to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Republicans who pay attention to this (and there are plenty of them) believe that their presidents (particularly President Bush's father-George H.W. Bush) failed conservatives by appointing justices who were sold as conservative but decided as liberals. With Republicans winning seven of the last nine presidential elections, a true conservative impact on the court was felt only under the two terms of President George W. Bush who appointed now-Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Sam Alito. Both were confirmed (but not without fights) and have been reliable conservatives on the Court.

Republicans feel that Democrats appoint so-called "judicial activists" who re-interpret the Constitution based on personal convictions rather than constitutional law and principles. Democrats in recent years have been making similar charges against the Republicans and the stakes on court cases are high, given the often-crucial cases on social policy that reach the Supremes.

In his speech at Wake Forest, Senator McCain said, "There are still men and women who understand the proper role of our judiciary. And I intend to find them, and promote them, if I am elected president."

It has been said that Senator McCain needs to reach out to the conservatives who make up the base of the party and who have often been at odds with the "maverick" who talks about global warming and campaign finance reform, both issues that trouble many conservatives. But it is the judicial issue where Senator McCain can connect with these Republican Party conservatives-if they believe he will appoint candidates who have the "proper role" of the judiciary in mind.

There is some evidence that Republican conservatives, if not wildly supporting the candidacy of Senator McCain, are at least "coming home" and plan to vote for him in the general election. He is fortunate that as the presumed nominee, he has a chance to do this under the radar screen of the mainstream media which is busy chronicling every utterance in the Obama-Clinton contest.

In some ways, the true beneficiary of this prolonged contest in the Democratic Party may be the Republican. I'll have more as results and exit polls start to trickle in later.