Heading into this weekend, the last one before critical primary votes in Ohio and Texas on March 4, the situation for the Democrats looks like this.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, counting "super delegates," who are unelected and unpledged, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois leads Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, 1,384 to 1,279. Among pledged delegates, Sen. Obama leads, 1,193 to 1,038.
Looking towards the vote in Texas and Ohio on March 4, Sen. Obama holds a slight lead in the polls in Texas, and Sen. Clinton has a slight lead in Ohio.
The consensus among political observers is that Sen. Clinton needs to win both states to stop the momentum of Sen. Obama. To catch up in the delegate race (delegates are awarded proportionately by the Democrats), Sen. Clinton would need to win by substantial majorities. But politically, a win of any kind in both states would do her well in terms of political perceptions of the race. It could reverse the momentum and make it a contest again and raise some doubts about Sen. Obama.
Sen. Clinton has been running an ad in Texas that has become controversial. The ad involves a red phone ringing and the narrator asks: "Who do you want answering the phone in the White House when it's 3 a.m. and something has happened in the world?" The ad hints that Sen. Obama is not experienced as Sen. Clinton in foreign affairs to react effectively.
Sen. Obama's campaign responded by saying, "We've seen these ads before. They're the kind that play on peoples' fears to scare up votes…the question is not about picking up the phone. The question is -- what kind of judgment will you make when you answer? We've had a red phone moment. It was the decision to invade Iraq. And Sen. Clinton gave the wrong answer."
But I think this has the possibility of being effective. The answer by the Obama campaign seems to be the same one given to any question about his preparedness for questions of national security: "Sen. Obama didn't support the war in Iraq." However, how long can this response serve as an all-purpose rejoinder to any foreign policy question? I would like to see tracking polls after this ad runs awhile.
Then, another issue erupted in the past few days. According to the Canadian television news outlet, CTV, a senior official in Sen. Obama's campaign gave assurances to Canada's government that Sen. Obama's opposition to, and call for, renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was just "campaign rhetoric."
The Obama campaign told CTV Thursday that there was no message given to Canada that Sen. Obama did not mean what he said about opting out of NAFTA if it is not renegotiated.
But then a high-ranking member of the Canadian embassy insisted that the story was true and named the Obama campaign aide--senior economic adviser Austan Goolsbee. Mr. Goolsbee refused to confirm whether or not he had such a conversation with the Canadian government office. But Canadian government sources told CTV that they are standing by their story.
This is the first time in awhile that Sen. Obama has been involved in one of these sorts of stories; a story which calls into question the campaign's veracity or its discipline. And if the campaign is truly reassuring foreign leaders that it doesn't really mean the populist rhetoric it is putting forth, that may not reflect well on the front runner. As one writer asked on a U.S. blog, if the story is true, was Mr. Goolsbee acting on his own, and if he was, what does that say about the effectiveness of the campaign? Who else is saying what to whom?
Ultimately, it may not matter as the voting in Texas and Ohio is only four days away and this may have no impact. But as I said, this is the first ding in Sen. Obama's armor in quite some time, and I expect the press (and the Clinton campaign) to play it up.
This may tighten the races in the coming days. I'll check the tracking polls.
For the Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive nominee, who is leading by 20 points in Texas and 43 in Ohio over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, is not too concerned about the voting.
Stories raising questions about his eligibility to hold the presidency by virtue of his birth in the Panama Canal Zone, ties to lobbyists, and an overeager radio talk show host who introduced him by emphasizing Barack Obama's middle name (Hussein), have plagued Sen. McCain but not really hurt him.
Too much attention is being paid to the Democratic race. We will see if Gov. Huckabee drops out after expected losses in Texas and Ohio or keeps going for the sake of getting to the convention with delegates.
February 29, 2008
February 27, 2008
The Last Debate?
Last night's debate at Cleveland State University in Ohio may have been the twentieth and last in the series that took place in the Democratic Party this election cycle. Debaters Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois squared off just one week before pivotal contests next Tuesday in Ohio and Texas that could decide the Democratic Party's presidential nomination-for Sen. Obama.
The 46 year-old African-American senator finds himself leading in the national polls, leading in convention delegates, and leading in the votes cast by Democrats since the process began on January 3 in Iowa.
While he trails in polls in Ohio, he is closing fast there on Sen. Clinton. In Texas, polls say that the two are tied or that Senator Sen. Obama holds a slight advantage. That's why last night's debate was so important for Senator Clinton. She needed a way to slow Sen. Obama's momentum, but the consensus view in the American press (and my own as well) was that she didn't.
It was not unlike a boxing match in which one fighter is way ahead on points entering the final round. The fighter behind on points realizes he has to knock the other guy out or lose. The fighter ahead on points just needs to stay on his feet. That was the situation last night. Most political analysts believe Sen. Clinton came nowhere near scoring a knockout and Sen. Obama deftly boxed his way out of trouble.
That isn't to say Sen. Clinton didn't land a few punches. There was a spirited exchange on health care plans that would hold only true policy wonks in rapture. There were charges and counter-charges about Sen. Obama's support from Black Muslim leader Minister Louis Farrakhan whose comments about Jewish Americans and Israel have put him way off on the sidelines of political influence. Sen. Clinton scored a point or two here and there, but in the end, most analysts believe Sen. Obama more than held his own and came out, if not the winner, at least not a loser, which was good enough under the circumstances.
The general consensus is that barring some kind of game-changing political development in the remaining days before Tuesday, Sen. Obama could win both big states (along with Rhode Island and Vermont which also vote) making it 13 and possibly 15 wins in a row. Then the pressure on Sen. Clinton to withdraw could become enormous.
But would she? Some columnists are calling for her to do just that but as Jack Kelly argues on the RealClearPolitics.com site, neither candidate may have enough delegates by the time the convention rolls around to claim a first ballot victory…if Sen. Clinton wins in Ohio and Texas. Even if she wins one of the states (she is leading in Ohio) it is probable she would stay in the race, hoping for a win in Pennsylvania on April 22.
But one thing did happen in the debate. For the first time, Sen. Obama came under some harsh questioning from the press. Debate moderator Tim Russert of MSNBC was quite persistent in his questions about Sen. Obama's support from Louis Farrakhan and whether or not Sen. Obama will accept public financing of his campaign. Sen. Obama originally said he would, but now seems to be putting off the question until he becomes the nominee. That's a bit different from his earlier comments.
Sen. Clinton's complaints in the debate about the press treatment she receives (she thinks it's harsh) versus the press treatment Sen. Obama receives (she thinks it's pretty easy) did not impress political analysts but perhaps did lead to some harder questioning of the Illinois senator than he has been used to. Now that he is the front- runner, the press may start asking some harder-edged questions about his policies. Pieces to this effect are starting to pop up in newspapers ever so slightly.
Nevertheless, if past is prologue, Sen. Obama could be in for a good night on Tuesday, and with wins in Texas and Ohio, just about put the race away as far as peoples' perceptions go. Sen. Clinton has to buck the odds and pull out some victories.
With less than a week left, Senator Clinton needs to find a way to win in Texas and Ohio-not necessarily by a large margin-but as one of our famous professional sports franchise owners put it in a famous quote, "Just win, baby!"
The 46 year-old African-American senator finds himself leading in the national polls, leading in convention delegates, and leading in the votes cast by Democrats since the process began on January 3 in Iowa.
While he trails in polls in Ohio, he is closing fast there on Sen. Clinton. In Texas, polls say that the two are tied or that Senator Sen. Obama holds a slight advantage. That's why last night's debate was so important for Senator Clinton. She needed a way to slow Sen. Obama's momentum, but the consensus view in the American press (and my own as well) was that she didn't.
It was not unlike a boxing match in which one fighter is way ahead on points entering the final round. The fighter behind on points realizes he has to knock the other guy out or lose. The fighter ahead on points just needs to stay on his feet. That was the situation last night. Most political analysts believe Sen. Clinton came nowhere near scoring a knockout and Sen. Obama deftly boxed his way out of trouble.
That isn't to say Sen. Clinton didn't land a few punches. There was a spirited exchange on health care plans that would hold only true policy wonks in rapture. There were charges and counter-charges about Sen. Obama's support from Black Muslim leader Minister Louis Farrakhan whose comments about Jewish Americans and Israel have put him way off on the sidelines of political influence. Sen. Clinton scored a point or two here and there, but in the end, most analysts believe Sen. Obama more than held his own and came out, if not the winner, at least not a loser, which was good enough under the circumstances.
The general consensus is that barring some kind of game-changing political development in the remaining days before Tuesday, Sen. Obama could win both big states (along with Rhode Island and Vermont which also vote) making it 13 and possibly 15 wins in a row. Then the pressure on Sen. Clinton to withdraw could become enormous.
But would she? Some columnists are calling for her to do just that but as Jack Kelly argues on the RealClearPolitics.com site, neither candidate may have enough delegates by the time the convention rolls around to claim a first ballot victory…if Sen. Clinton wins in Ohio and Texas. Even if she wins one of the states (she is leading in Ohio) it is probable she would stay in the race, hoping for a win in Pennsylvania on April 22.
But one thing did happen in the debate. For the first time, Sen. Obama came under some harsh questioning from the press. Debate moderator Tim Russert of MSNBC was quite persistent in his questions about Sen. Obama's support from Louis Farrakhan and whether or not Sen. Obama will accept public financing of his campaign. Sen. Obama originally said he would, but now seems to be putting off the question until he becomes the nominee. That's a bit different from his earlier comments.
Sen. Clinton's complaints in the debate about the press treatment she receives (she thinks it's harsh) versus the press treatment Sen. Obama receives (she thinks it's pretty easy) did not impress political analysts but perhaps did lead to some harder questioning of the Illinois senator than he has been used to. Now that he is the front- runner, the press may start asking some harder-edged questions about his policies. Pieces to this effect are starting to pop up in newspapers ever so slightly.
Nevertheless, if past is prologue, Sen. Obama could be in for a good night on Tuesday, and with wins in Texas and Ohio, just about put the race away as far as peoples' perceptions go. Sen. Clinton has to buck the odds and pull out some victories.
With less than a week left, Senator Clinton needs to find a way to win in Texas and Ohio-not necessarily by a large margin-but as one of our famous professional sports franchise owners put it in a famous quote, "Just win, baby!"
February 26, 2008
Big Debate Tonight
In what is being billed as New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's "last chance," she takes on the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, in a televised debate. The debate will be held in Cleveland, Ohio. Ohio is one of the critical states with a primary next Tuesday which could go a long way in determining whether Sen. Obama seals the deal with Democratic Party voters, or is the staging ground for a comeback by Sen. Clinton.
Current polling shows Sen. Clinton leading in Ohio but with a tight race in Texas (it also votes the same day as Ohio)--Sen. Obama has a small lead there.
This is a very important debate for both candidates as they seek the nomination for their party's top spot on the national ticket.
I'll have some debate react when it's over. Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama's previous debates have been fairly civil but I think this one could be a little different. There is a great deal at stake, particularly for Sen. Clinton. I thinks she is going to try and rattle Sen. Obama in an attempt to give voters pause to support him in the numbers he has been getting. That will not be an easy task but no one said running for president is a lark. As someone once said about politics (I can't remember who)--"Politics ain't beanbag"--meaning it can be a rough and tumble exercise.
Stay tuned!
Current polling shows Sen. Clinton leading in Ohio but with a tight race in Texas (it also votes the same day as Ohio)--Sen. Obama has a small lead there.
This is a very important debate for both candidates as they seek the nomination for their party's top spot on the national ticket.
I'll have some debate react when it's over. Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama's previous debates have been fairly civil but I think this one could be a little different. There is a great deal at stake, particularly for Sen. Clinton. I thinks she is going to try and rattle Sen. Obama in an attempt to give voters pause to support him in the numbers he has been getting. That will not be an easy task but no one said running for president is a lark. As someone once said about politics (I can't remember who)--"Politics ain't beanbag"--meaning it can be a rough and tumble exercise.
Stay tuned!
February 25, 2008
Back Again
Sorry to have been out so long.
Lots of stuff happening in the US presidential campaign even though there are no elections set for Tuesday.
A story last week in the influential New York Times about Sen. John McCain, Republican of Arizona, hinting that he may have had a romantic relationship with a lobbyist (someone who represents an industry or cause to members of Congress) and questioning his ties to lobbyists in general, received quite a bit of criticism. Both political critics and those in journalistic circles thought the Times story was not a good one. The Times stood by its reporting, but politically, the result may be that the Arizona senator and presumptive party nominee for president could be helped in his quest to convince conservatives in the party to support him.
In the Democratic Party, Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama had a debate last week in which not much happened to change the flow of the campaign. A statement at the end of that debate from Sen. Clinton that, "no matter what happens, we'll be all right," was intepreted by some as a valedictory wrapup to her campaign and a prelude to a graceful exit.
But Sen. Clinton, who trails Sen. Obama in delegates and momentum, is fiercely contesting Texas and Ohio where voters go to the polls March 4. She needs to win both states to keep the campaign going. After last week's victories by Sen. Obama, it was thought Sen. Clinton needed to win by big margins to make up her deficit in delegates. But now, any victory would do. If not, then some columnists (as they already have) are suggesting she withdraw from the race.
But recent polling shows her with a lead in Ohio and one in Pennsylvania (which votes on April 22) but Texas is practically a dead heat.
With the stakes high, the rhetoric is ratcheting up on the Democratic side. There is another debate tomorrow night (Tuesday night) and that could be critical. Although people have said that for each debate and it turns into a mutual admiration society.
We will watch to see what happens as it is really coming down to decision day for the Democrats.
Lots of stuff happening in the US presidential campaign even though there are no elections set for Tuesday.
A story last week in the influential New York Times about Sen. John McCain, Republican of Arizona, hinting that he may have had a romantic relationship with a lobbyist (someone who represents an industry or cause to members of Congress) and questioning his ties to lobbyists in general, received quite a bit of criticism. Both political critics and those in journalistic circles thought the Times story was not a good one. The Times stood by its reporting, but politically, the result may be that the Arizona senator and presumptive party nominee for president could be helped in his quest to convince conservatives in the party to support him.
In the Democratic Party, Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama had a debate last week in which not much happened to change the flow of the campaign. A statement at the end of that debate from Sen. Clinton that, "no matter what happens, we'll be all right," was intepreted by some as a valedictory wrapup to her campaign and a prelude to a graceful exit.
But Sen. Clinton, who trails Sen. Obama in delegates and momentum, is fiercely contesting Texas and Ohio where voters go to the polls March 4. She needs to win both states to keep the campaign going. After last week's victories by Sen. Obama, it was thought Sen. Clinton needed to win by big margins to make up her deficit in delegates. But now, any victory would do. If not, then some columnists (as they already have) are suggesting she withdraw from the race.
But recent polling shows her with a lead in Ohio and one in Pennsylvania (which votes on April 22) but Texas is practically a dead heat.
With the stakes high, the rhetoric is ratcheting up on the Democratic side. There is another debate tomorrow night (Tuesday night) and that could be critical. Although people have said that for each debate and it turns into a mutual admiration society.
We will watch to see what happens as it is really coming down to decision day for the Democrats.
February 20, 2008
Currents in the Democratic Race
The final tallies are in from voting on Tuesday, Feb. 19:
In the Democratic Party primary in the state of Wisconsin, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois defeated Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, 58 percent to 41 percent. The seventeen-point edge stands in contrast to pre-election polling which saw him with a miniscule four-point lead. In Hawaii, where Sen. Obama was born, he won even bigger, by 76 to 24 percent.
Sen. Obama won across almost all demographic groups, including ones that previously had been voting for Sen. Clinton--women, voters making less than $50,000 per year, and those without college degrees. The only group still loyally supporting the New York senator are women 65 and older.
The results led to a series of articles and reports asking, "Is Clinton Finished?" and indeed they make a strong case that Sen. Obama has gained political momentum as a result of his victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii, and last week's routs in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. He currently leads in total delegates (1356 to 1267, says RealClearPolitics.com) and his campaign points out that due to the Democratic Party's awarding of delegates according to the proportion of votes a candidate receives, Sen. Clinton would need to win primaries in Texas and Ohio on March 4 by more than 20 points to make up the difference.
The most recent poll in Texas, taken by Survey USA, shows Sen. Clinton with a 9 point lead (52-43) but the lead was in double digits not that long ago. In Ohio, a poll taken before the voting in Wisconsin had Sen. Clinton up by five points, 50-45. I'll be watching the polls taken after the voting on Tuesday to see if the momentum effect will eradicate those leads. Many analysts believe it will.
Sen. Clinton's campaign will be going on the offensive and raising the issue of which candidate would make a better commander of U.S. military forces, hinting that Sen. Obama has little or no national security experience.
But another line of attack could have opened quite accidentally for Sen. Clinton. On Tuesday night, MSNBC TV host Chris Matthews asked Texas State Sen. Kirk Watson, an Obama supporter, over and over again on live television to name some legislative accomplishments of Sen. Obama in the U.S. Senate. Mr. Watson could not, and he tried to change the subject but Mr. Matthews would not budge. Don't be surprised if you see this challenge raised again in the campaigns in Ohio and Texas.
Meanwhile, Senator Clinton is trying to raise more money for the upcoming campaigns and may be trying to woo former Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards' support. So is Sen. Obama who met with him earlier this week.
But leave all these aside; the main task that Sen. Clinton has to accomplish is win in Texas and Ohio, and follow that up with a victory in Pennsylvania in April. She has not won in ten straight contests so that is a tall order, but everything else may be meaningless in the Democratic race unless she wins in these states and wins convincingly.
In the Democratic Party primary in the state of Wisconsin, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois defeated Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, 58 percent to 41 percent. The seventeen-point edge stands in contrast to pre-election polling which saw him with a miniscule four-point lead. In Hawaii, where Sen. Obama was born, he won even bigger, by 76 to 24 percent.
Sen. Obama won across almost all demographic groups, including ones that previously had been voting for Sen. Clinton--women, voters making less than $50,000 per year, and those without college degrees. The only group still loyally supporting the New York senator are women 65 and older.
The results led to a series of articles and reports asking, "Is Clinton Finished?" and indeed they make a strong case that Sen. Obama has gained political momentum as a result of his victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii, and last week's routs in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. He currently leads in total delegates (1356 to 1267, says RealClearPolitics.com) and his campaign points out that due to the Democratic Party's awarding of delegates according to the proportion of votes a candidate receives, Sen. Clinton would need to win primaries in Texas and Ohio on March 4 by more than 20 points to make up the difference.
The most recent poll in Texas, taken by Survey USA, shows Sen. Clinton with a 9 point lead (52-43) but the lead was in double digits not that long ago. In Ohio, a poll taken before the voting in Wisconsin had Sen. Clinton up by five points, 50-45. I'll be watching the polls taken after the voting on Tuesday to see if the momentum effect will eradicate those leads. Many analysts believe it will.
Sen. Clinton's campaign will be going on the offensive and raising the issue of which candidate would make a better commander of U.S. military forces, hinting that Sen. Obama has little or no national security experience.
But another line of attack could have opened quite accidentally for Sen. Clinton. On Tuesday night, MSNBC TV host Chris Matthews asked Texas State Sen. Kirk Watson, an Obama supporter, over and over again on live television to name some legislative accomplishments of Sen. Obama in the U.S. Senate. Mr. Watson could not, and he tried to change the subject but Mr. Matthews would not budge. Don't be surprised if you see this challenge raised again in the campaigns in Ohio and Texas.
Meanwhile, Senator Clinton is trying to raise more money for the upcoming campaigns and may be trying to woo former Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards' support. So is Sen. Obama who met with him earlier this week.
But leave all these aside; the main task that Sen. Clinton has to accomplish is win in Texas and Ohio, and follow that up with a victory in Pennsylvania in April. She has not won in ten straight contests so that is a tall order, but everything else may be meaningless in the Democratic race unless she wins in these states and wins convincingly.
February 19, 2008
Wrap Up
With the Wisconsin Primary called for both frontrunners, Sen. Barack Obama on the Democratic side, and Sen. John McCain on the Republican side, the race seems to be stabilizing and taking a definitive shape.
For the Republicans, it was a good night for Sen. McCain, who won handily among those identified as Republicans. He split conservatives with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, but lost evangelical voters. But overall, he had a good night and is now within shouting distance of clinching the nomination.
The question is how long Gov. Huckabee will stay in the race, previous reports had him staying in through March 4. Given the wide lead of Sen. McCain and the pressure from party leaders to throw in with the front runner and bring the party behind Sen. McCain's candidacy, he will be feeling the heat to withdraw.
For the Democrats, it was a tenth straight victory for Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton, and there are signs that Sen. Obama continued to win over voters who had previously been casting their ballots for Sen. Clinton. Many of the demographic groups in the state (women, downscale economic voters, members of labor unions) were ones that Sen. Clinton had an excellent chance to win. The only group that still seems to support her in large numbers are women over 60. Otherwise, she is losing to (or splitting) these critical voting blocs with Sen. Obama.
The tenth straight win also is beginning to solidify the perception that Sen. Obama is marching to victory, and picking up support as he goes. Sen. Clinton badly needs a victory and must now look to Texas and Ohio to break into the win column.
Currently, polls show that Sen. Clinton has leads in both states, but one poll shows a precipitous drop for her support in Ohio, and another shows Sen. Obama leading in Texas. The next thing to look for is what effect the Wisconsin win will have on polling in Texas and Ohio.
There are 13 days between Wednesday, Feb. 20, and the March 4 voting in the two big states; plenty of time for the Sen. Obama bandwagon to roll on to the Midwest and South. But Sen. Clinton also has about two weeks to try to change the shape of this campaign to her advantage.
We will examine polling starting on 2/20 to see if her leads in Texas and Ohio hold up, increase, or begin to plummet.
It's getting to crunch time for the Democrats.
For the Republicans, it was a good night for Sen. McCain, who won handily among those identified as Republicans. He split conservatives with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, but lost evangelical voters. But overall, he had a good night and is now within shouting distance of clinching the nomination.
The question is how long Gov. Huckabee will stay in the race, previous reports had him staying in through March 4. Given the wide lead of Sen. McCain and the pressure from party leaders to throw in with the front runner and bring the party behind Sen. McCain's candidacy, he will be feeling the heat to withdraw.
For the Democrats, it was a tenth straight victory for Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton, and there are signs that Sen. Obama continued to win over voters who had previously been casting their ballots for Sen. Clinton. Many of the demographic groups in the state (women, downscale economic voters, members of labor unions) were ones that Sen. Clinton had an excellent chance to win. The only group that still seems to support her in large numbers are women over 60. Otherwise, she is losing to (or splitting) these critical voting blocs with Sen. Obama.
The tenth straight win also is beginning to solidify the perception that Sen. Obama is marching to victory, and picking up support as he goes. Sen. Clinton badly needs a victory and must now look to Texas and Ohio to break into the win column.
Currently, polls show that Sen. Clinton has leads in both states, but one poll shows a precipitous drop for her support in Ohio, and another shows Sen. Obama leading in Texas. The next thing to look for is what effect the Wisconsin win will have on polling in Texas and Ohio.
There are 13 days between Wednesday, Feb. 20, and the March 4 voting in the two big states; plenty of time for the Sen. Obama bandwagon to roll on to the Midwest and South. But Sen. Clinton also has about two weeks to try to change the shape of this campaign to her advantage.
We will examine polling starting on 2/20 to see if her leads in Texas and Ohio hold up, increase, or begin to plummet.
It's getting to crunch time for the Democrats.
Update on McCain Victory
While it is true that Sen. McCain lost evangelical voters, he scored over former Arkansas Governor Huckabee among, "those who go to church "weekly" 49-43."
He also won in every major region of the state by large margins. Some analysts are arguing that this means Sen. McCain has begun the process of bringing his party together.
I still think there are some groups existing in the Republican Party that he has to reach. The real test comes when Gov. Huckabee is not on the ballot.
He also won in every major region of the state by large margins. Some analysts are arguing that this means Sen. McCain has begun the process of bringing his party together.
I still think there are some groups existing in the Republican Party that he has to reach. The real test comes when Gov. Huckabee is not on the ballot.
Fox and CNN Project Sen. Obama to win in Wisconsin
Moments ago, Fox News called the Wisconsin Primary for Sen. Obama; CNN just did so.
Now we wait for the margins.
Now we wait for the margins.
Sen. McCain Selected as Winner in Wisconsin Primary for Republicans
Even before the polls closed in Wisconsin, both Fox and CNN called Wisconsin for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, easily winning over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
But the exit polling still shows some troubling signs for Sen. McCain's campaign: the former Arkansas governor wins evangelical voters by 59-35 percent; so-called "values voters" by 54-31 percent, and although there are no numbers yet, the polls say he is winning "conservatives."
But among self-identified Republicans, who made up 70 percent of the party primary voters in Wisconsin, Sen. McCain won, 53-47.
The conservatives and evangelicals are voters that Sen. McCain is going to need to "bring back home" for the general election against either Democratic Party candidate.
The question is whether these voters will vote for the Arizona senator in the fall when Gov. Huckabee is not an option on the ballot. These voters could be going for Gov. Huckabee merely because he is there or they are "sending a message" to Sen. McCain, or, in November, they do not plan to vote for him. We will see over the length of the campaign.
Curiously, among voters who listen to talk radio hosts (who are virulently anti-Sen. McCain), he won 56 percent of their votes against 32 percent who voted for former Gov. Huckabee.
Sen. McCain is saying, "I will be the Republican party's nominee." Pretty safe bet, I'd say.
The Democratic race is still too close to call, although sources say a call could be coming soon based on what appear to be big numbers in the exit polling for Sen. Obama.
Early exit polling hints that Sen. Obama may cruise to a 12 point win, in the area of (as one pundit predicted) 55 plus or minus to 43, plus or minus. Again, Sen. Obama did well, according to exit polls, among groups that have to date supported Sen. Clinton such as lower income whites and union workers., etc. The Illinois senator split the white female vote (over half of the Democratic Party primary electorate in Wisconsin) this group of voters was not as wealthy and affluent as the ones in last weekend's Maryland-Virginia--District of Columbia voting.
But the exit polling still shows some troubling signs for Sen. McCain's campaign: the former Arkansas governor wins evangelical voters by 59-35 percent; so-called "values voters" by 54-31 percent, and although there are no numbers yet, the polls say he is winning "conservatives."
But among self-identified Republicans, who made up 70 percent of the party primary voters in Wisconsin, Sen. McCain won, 53-47.
The conservatives and evangelicals are voters that Sen. McCain is going to need to "bring back home" for the general election against either Democratic Party candidate.
The question is whether these voters will vote for the Arizona senator in the fall when Gov. Huckabee is not an option on the ballot. These voters could be going for Gov. Huckabee merely because he is there or they are "sending a message" to Sen. McCain, or, in November, they do not plan to vote for him. We will see over the length of the campaign.
Curiously, among voters who listen to talk radio hosts (who are virulently anti-Sen. McCain), he won 56 percent of their votes against 32 percent who voted for former Gov. Huckabee.
Sen. McCain is saying, "I will be the Republican party's nominee." Pretty safe bet, I'd say.
The Democratic race is still too close to call, although sources say a call could be coming soon based on what appear to be big numbers in the exit polling for Sen. Obama.
Early exit polling hints that Sen. Obama may cruise to a 12 point win, in the area of (as one pundit predicted) 55 plus or minus to 43, plus or minus. Again, Sen. Obama did well, according to exit polls, among groups that have to date supported Sen. Clinton such as lower income whites and union workers., etc. The Illinois senator split the white female vote (over half of the Democratic Party primary electorate in Wisconsin) this group of voters was not as wealthy and affluent as the ones in last weekend's Maryland-Virginia--District of Columbia voting.
Back Online
After some time away from the computer (it was a three-day holiday in the US) I'm back blogging the US presidential race looking at tonight's Wisconsin primary.
No contest on the Republican Party side as Sen. John McCain, from Arizona, the presumptive nominee, is poised to win that state's primary election putting him within shouting distance of his party's nomination. RealClearPolitics.com has the Arizona senator with 846 out of the 1120 needed to win.
Over on the Democratic Party side in the struggle between Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, the exit polls are indicating a good night (again) for the Illinoisan.
If he wins (and those polls are suggesting it could be in blowout territory) that could make it ten in a row for him and really put Sen. Clinton on the spot to not just win, but win convincingly in the next series of races in Texas and Ohio.
Polls indicate leads for Sen. Clinton in Texas and Ohio but once large margins are narrowing. If Sen. Obama wins in Wisconsin (and in Hawaii where he was born which is also voting tonight along with a followup primary in Washington State to an earlier caucus), the tide may be too much to overcome.
I'll post the totals and projections as I get them; polls will be open for awhile yet.
No contest on the Republican Party side as Sen. John McCain, from Arizona, the presumptive nominee, is poised to win that state's primary election putting him within shouting distance of his party's nomination. RealClearPolitics.com has the Arizona senator with 846 out of the 1120 needed to win.
Over on the Democratic Party side in the struggle between Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, the exit polls are indicating a good night (again) for the Illinoisan.
If he wins (and those polls are suggesting it could be in blowout territory) that could make it ten in a row for him and really put Sen. Clinton on the spot to not just win, but win convincingly in the next series of races in Texas and Ohio.
Polls indicate leads for Sen. Clinton in Texas and Ohio but once large margins are narrowing. If Sen. Obama wins in Wisconsin (and in Hawaii where he was born which is also voting tonight along with a followup primary in Washington State to an earlier caucus), the tide may be too much to overcome.
I'll post the totals and projections as I get them; polls will be open for awhile yet.
February 15, 2008
Back on the Grid
I've been off the grid for awhile and while I was away, tons of stuff happened in the US presidential campaign you should know about.
For a change, let's start with the Republicans. Sen. John McCain of Arizona had any doubts removed that he would be the nominee when he earned the endorsement on Thursday of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Gov. Ropmney amassed 291 delegates (according to RealClearPolitics.com) but he suspended his campaign last week ensuring Sen. McCain would win the nomination. Along with his endorsement, Gov. Romney "gave" his delegates to Sen. McCain.
Those delegates would give McCain 1,116 total delegates, 75 short of the magic number of 1,191 to secure the nomination mathematically.
Meanwhile, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with a total of 240 delegates and Cong. Ron Paul with 14, are both staying in the race but at some point, they will have to bow out so Sen. McCain can truly claim his prize. Gossip inside the Beltway indicates that Gov. Huckabee could withdraw after balloting in Texas on March 4.
The Arizona senator also found out he would receive the endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush (Bush 41) probably next week in Texas. It's a signal, say political observers, that it's time for all Republicans to rally around the nominee and start planning for the general campaign (which seems underway already!).
Republicans next vote in Wisconsin on Feb. 19. It's a winner take all open primary with 37 of 40 delegates at stake.
Now onto the Democrats where the race is much tighter.
When we last left you, the momentum for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois after his wins in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia on Feb. 12, was rising to gargantuan levels; he went into the delegate lead for the first time and also began to creep ahead in national preference polling. The RealClearPolitics.com delegate count has him 58 ahead going into voting on Feb. 19 when Democrats cast ballots in Wisconsin and Hawaii, with a non-binding primary in the Pacific coast state of Washington.
There already was a precinct caucus in Washington State on Feb. 9, and as a result, Sen. Obama got 25 pledged delegates to Sen. Clinton's 12.
In Wisconsin, polls show a tight race with Sen. Obama leading Sen. Clinton by four points. Sen. Clinton was thinking about skipping over Wisconsin, and focusing on upcoming races in Texas and Ohio, but with the contest close, and with her needing a victory, she plans to spend three days in the state.
The state has demographics which each side can claim as favorable. It's gone for Democratic Party presidential candidates in the past two elections but by very small margins. Political analyst Jeff Greenfield writing in Slate.com, says that exit polls from the 2004 presidential primary there showed that almost 60 percent of the voters described themselves as moderates or conservatives. Three in four had incomes of $75,000 a year or less; and half earned less than $50,000 a year. A third of the voters, he wrote, were Catholic, and more than half had no college education. Over twenty percent were members of unions.
This describes fairly well the demographic that has been supporting Sen. Clinton.
But Wisconsin also has a liberal tradition and a large population of university students--this is the terrain that is favorable for Sen. Obama. The polls are fairly tight and a win by Sen. Clinton would throw a roadblock into the coronation underway for Sen. Obama, and give Sen. Clinton a head of steam heading into Texas and Ohio which, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, vote on March 4.
The two large states of Ohio and Texas show Sen. Clinton with leads. With Sen. Obama winning ten major contests in a row (Sen. Clinton was found to have won the New Mexico Primary on Feb. 5--Super Tuesday--winning 14 delegates to Sen. Obama's 12), a win by Sen. Clinton in Wisconsin would be a big boost for her.
But if Sen. Obama's momentum leads to another 10-point win in Wisconsin, look out in Texas and Ohio; the senator from Illinois could be unstoppable.
The endorsement race also picked up when it appeared that Rep. John Lewis, an African-American Democrat from Georgia and long-time supporter of Sen. Clinton, was switching his support to Sen. Obama. The New York Times reported this on Thursday but accounts in the Atlanta papers on Friday denied that there was a switch.
I'll try and post more over the weekend. PS--I do not have a dog in this fight between the two Democratic candidates. I am just laying out the possibilities for each one.
If you have comments or you have preferences, let me know.
For a change, let's start with the Republicans. Sen. John McCain of Arizona had any doubts removed that he would be the nominee when he earned the endorsement on Thursday of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Gov. Ropmney amassed 291 delegates (according to RealClearPolitics.com) but he suspended his campaign last week ensuring Sen. McCain would win the nomination. Along with his endorsement, Gov. Romney "gave" his delegates to Sen. McCain.
Those delegates would give McCain 1,116 total delegates, 75 short of the magic number of 1,191 to secure the nomination mathematically.
Meanwhile, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with a total of 240 delegates and Cong. Ron Paul with 14, are both staying in the race but at some point, they will have to bow out so Sen. McCain can truly claim his prize. Gossip inside the Beltway indicates that Gov. Huckabee could withdraw after balloting in Texas on March 4.
The Arizona senator also found out he would receive the endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush (Bush 41) probably next week in Texas. It's a signal, say political observers, that it's time for all Republicans to rally around the nominee and start planning for the general campaign (which seems underway already!).
Republicans next vote in Wisconsin on Feb. 19. It's a winner take all open primary with 37 of 40 delegates at stake.
Now onto the Democrats where the race is much tighter.
When we last left you, the momentum for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois after his wins in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia on Feb. 12, was rising to gargantuan levels; he went into the delegate lead for the first time and also began to creep ahead in national preference polling. The RealClearPolitics.com delegate count has him 58 ahead going into voting on Feb. 19 when Democrats cast ballots in Wisconsin and Hawaii, with a non-binding primary in the Pacific coast state of Washington.
There already was a precinct caucus in Washington State on Feb. 9, and as a result, Sen. Obama got 25 pledged delegates to Sen. Clinton's 12.
In Wisconsin, polls show a tight race with Sen. Obama leading Sen. Clinton by four points. Sen. Clinton was thinking about skipping over Wisconsin, and focusing on upcoming races in Texas and Ohio, but with the contest close, and with her needing a victory, she plans to spend three days in the state.
The state has demographics which each side can claim as favorable. It's gone for Democratic Party presidential candidates in the past two elections but by very small margins. Political analyst Jeff Greenfield writing in Slate.com, says that exit polls from the 2004 presidential primary there showed that almost 60 percent of the voters described themselves as moderates or conservatives. Three in four had incomes of $75,000 a year or less; and half earned less than $50,000 a year. A third of the voters, he wrote, were Catholic, and more than half had no college education. Over twenty percent were members of unions.
This describes fairly well the demographic that has been supporting Sen. Clinton.
But Wisconsin also has a liberal tradition and a large population of university students--this is the terrain that is favorable for Sen. Obama. The polls are fairly tight and a win by Sen. Clinton would throw a roadblock into the coronation underway for Sen. Obama, and give Sen. Clinton a head of steam heading into Texas and Ohio which, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, vote on March 4.
The two large states of Ohio and Texas show Sen. Clinton with leads. With Sen. Obama winning ten major contests in a row (Sen. Clinton was found to have won the New Mexico Primary on Feb. 5--Super Tuesday--winning 14 delegates to Sen. Obama's 12), a win by Sen. Clinton in Wisconsin would be a big boost for her.
But if Sen. Obama's momentum leads to another 10-point win in Wisconsin, look out in Texas and Ohio; the senator from Illinois could be unstoppable.
The endorsement race also picked up when it appeared that Rep. John Lewis, an African-American Democrat from Georgia and long-time supporter of Sen. Clinton, was switching his support to Sen. Obama. The New York Times reported this on Thursday but accounts in the Atlanta papers on Friday denied that there was a switch.
I'll try and post more over the weekend. PS--I do not have a dog in this fight between the two Democratic candidates. I am just laying out the possibilities for each one.
If you have comments or you have preferences, let me know.
February 13, 2008
The Day After
It is the day after the so-called Potomac Primary (Democratic and Republican Party primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia, all situated along the Potomac River) and what a difference it has made in the U.S. presidential election.
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois won smashing victories in all three races. He took 64 percent of the vote in Virginia, 60 percent of the vote in Maryland, and 75 percent of the vote in the District of Columbia. He won a clear majority of the 168 pledged delegates at stake on Tuesday, and now leads in delegates over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York by 1272-1231; 2,025 are needed to nominate. In several national polls of Democratic Party voter preferences he now leads as well. He has won eight contests in a row and a sense of momentum, and even a sense, according to his campaign, of “inevitability.”
It wasn’t that long ago that Senator Clinton was making the “inevitability” argument, which has now been turned on its head.
Speaking from a delegate-count basis, Senator Obama’s supporters say his 41-vote lead, according to RealClearPolitics.com, puts him in command, with Wisconsin and Hawaii voting on Feb. 19, where the Illinois senator is also expected to do well.
Hawaii, which was where Sen. Obama was born, is also a caucus state. In a caucus state, voters attend a public meeting and indicate support a candidate openly, as opposed to a primary, which is an election. Sen. Obama has won almost all the Democratic Party caucuses to date save Nevada. In Wisconsin, he leads Sen. Clinton with a 45-41 percent approval advantage in the state. He could pile up another 94 pledged delegates with victories there next week and continue his unbeaten streak, which would reach 10. This would put an enormous amount of pressure on Senator Clinton and the momentum generated by these wins could prove unstoppable.
Yet the Clinton campaign is not without, to use a word heard a lot in this election season, “hope.” To begin with, she trails in Wisconsin by only four points, with 14 percent undecided. She is going to the state on Saturday (which some analysts believe may be too late) because Wisconsin could play to her advantage: there are large numbers of white working-class voters and a small population of African-Americans. She has scored well with these groups in the past. A surprise win in Wisconsin would give the senator’s campaign a huge boost going into the crucial date of March 4.
On March 4 (the day U.S. presidents used to be inaugurated), there are crucial elections in Ohio and Texas, with another biggie slated for April 22 in Pennsylvania. There are 573 delegates up for grabs between March 4 and April 22. According to press accounts, Senator Clinton would need to get 345 of those 573 delegates, or 60 percent, to even the race. In the remaining states, she would need to win more than 55 percent of the vote. That is asking a lot of any candidate but it is certainly not impossible. Sen. Clinton is currently leading in Ohio by 19 points in one survey, but observers wonder if the momentum generated by Sen. Obama this past week will cut into that lead. We’ll find out in the next three weeks.
So while the math looks difficult for Sen. Clinton, the one thing we have learned in this race is not to count her out. Remember New Hampshire, where polls had her trailing, but she eked out a surprise win.
Both sides in the Democratic race are courting the party’s so-called “super delegates,” those 796 officials who are granted voting privileges in the convention but are not bound to any candidate, regardless of the outcome in a particular state. Sen. Obama’s campaign is urging that these super delegates follow the votes in their home states; Sen. Clinton is using her long political history in the Democratic Party to persuade them to vote for her. It is an explosive issue in the party and many political operatives are hoping the super delegates do not decide the outcome of the race.
Then there is the issue of what to do about Michigan and Florida, two states whose delegates were stripped by the Democratic Party when they moved their primaries up in defiance of party rules. Sen. Clinton won in both states and has said that those states’ delegations should be seated; if so, she could pick up 178 delegates or more. Such a proposal brought to the convention floor would lead to a bitter fight and it is one that most Democrats hope to avoid. It can be avoided with further victories by Senator Obama but if Senator Clinton comes back in the remaining states, all bets are off.
On the Republican side, things were quieter with Sen. John McCain of Arizona winning all three primaries putting him within a stone’s throw of the nomination. His principal rival, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, plans to stay in the race, although several reports indicate there is no possible mathematical way that Sen. McCain can lose. Sen. McCain improved his vote-getting totals among Republican Party voters but social conservatives supported Gov. Huckabee and made the race in Virginia much closer (50 percent to 41 percent) than Sen. McCain had hoped. Nevertheless, Sen. McCain is now aiming his sights at Sen. Obama and Sen. Obama is returning the compliment.
So have we reached a turning point in the Democratic race as we have in the Republican? I’ll blog more about that later. What do you think?
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois won smashing victories in all three races. He took 64 percent of the vote in Virginia, 60 percent of the vote in Maryland, and 75 percent of the vote in the District of Columbia. He won a clear majority of the 168 pledged delegates at stake on Tuesday, and now leads in delegates over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York by 1272-1231; 2,025 are needed to nominate. In several national polls of Democratic Party voter preferences he now leads as well. He has won eight contests in a row and a sense of momentum, and even a sense, according to his campaign, of “inevitability.”
It wasn’t that long ago that Senator Clinton was making the “inevitability” argument, which has now been turned on its head.
Speaking from a delegate-count basis, Senator Obama’s supporters say his 41-vote lead, according to RealClearPolitics.com, puts him in command, with Wisconsin and Hawaii voting on Feb. 19, where the Illinois senator is also expected to do well.
Hawaii, which was where Sen. Obama was born, is also a caucus state. In a caucus state, voters attend a public meeting and indicate support a candidate openly, as opposed to a primary, which is an election. Sen. Obama has won almost all the Democratic Party caucuses to date save Nevada. In Wisconsin, he leads Sen. Clinton with a 45-41 percent approval advantage in the state. He could pile up another 94 pledged delegates with victories there next week and continue his unbeaten streak, which would reach 10. This would put an enormous amount of pressure on Senator Clinton and the momentum generated by these wins could prove unstoppable.
Yet the Clinton campaign is not without, to use a word heard a lot in this election season, “hope.” To begin with, she trails in Wisconsin by only four points, with 14 percent undecided. She is going to the state on Saturday (which some analysts believe may be too late) because Wisconsin could play to her advantage: there are large numbers of white working-class voters and a small population of African-Americans. She has scored well with these groups in the past. A surprise win in Wisconsin would give the senator’s campaign a huge boost going into the crucial date of March 4.
On March 4 (the day U.S. presidents used to be inaugurated), there are crucial elections in Ohio and Texas, with another biggie slated for April 22 in Pennsylvania. There are 573 delegates up for grabs between March 4 and April 22. According to press accounts, Senator Clinton would need to get 345 of those 573 delegates, or 60 percent, to even the race. In the remaining states, she would need to win more than 55 percent of the vote. That is asking a lot of any candidate but it is certainly not impossible. Sen. Clinton is currently leading in Ohio by 19 points in one survey, but observers wonder if the momentum generated by Sen. Obama this past week will cut into that lead. We’ll find out in the next three weeks.
So while the math looks difficult for Sen. Clinton, the one thing we have learned in this race is not to count her out. Remember New Hampshire, where polls had her trailing, but she eked out a surprise win.
Both sides in the Democratic race are courting the party’s so-called “super delegates,” those 796 officials who are granted voting privileges in the convention but are not bound to any candidate, regardless of the outcome in a particular state. Sen. Obama’s campaign is urging that these super delegates follow the votes in their home states; Sen. Clinton is using her long political history in the Democratic Party to persuade them to vote for her. It is an explosive issue in the party and many political operatives are hoping the super delegates do not decide the outcome of the race.
Then there is the issue of what to do about Michigan and Florida, two states whose delegates were stripped by the Democratic Party when they moved their primaries up in defiance of party rules. Sen. Clinton won in both states and has said that those states’ delegations should be seated; if so, she could pick up 178 delegates or more. Such a proposal brought to the convention floor would lead to a bitter fight and it is one that most Democrats hope to avoid. It can be avoided with further victories by Senator Obama but if Senator Clinton comes back in the remaining states, all bets are off.
On the Republican side, things were quieter with Sen. John McCain of Arizona winning all three primaries putting him within a stone’s throw of the nomination. His principal rival, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, plans to stay in the race, although several reports indicate there is no possible mathematical way that Sen. McCain can lose. Sen. McCain improved his vote-getting totals among Republican Party voters but social conservatives supported Gov. Huckabee and made the race in Virginia much closer (50 percent to 41 percent) than Sen. McCain had hoped. Nevertheless, Sen. McCain is now aiming his sights at Sen. Obama and Sen. Obama is returning the compliment.
So have we reached a turning point in the Democratic race as we have in the Republican? I’ll blog more about that later. What do you think?
February 12, 2008
Maryland Called for Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain
Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois made it three for three in the so-called "Potomac Primary" winning Maryland according to major U.S. networks. He added Maryland to wins in Virginia and the District of Columbia.
He ran well in Maryland across demographic lines and exit polls say he won both men and women over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Sen. John McCain also was declared an easy winner in Maryland by the networks.
So, while Sen. McCain had an early scare in Virginia, he rallies to win the state, plus Maryland and the District of Columbia.
The headlines tomorrow will talk of Sen. Obama's momentum, further shakeups in the Clinton campaign (a deputy campaign manager resigned on Monday following the resignation of Campaign Director Patty Solis Doyle; the reason given was to allow the new Campaign Director, Maggie Williams, the chance to organize her own staff) and whether it is time for someone to approach Sen. Clinton and ask her to step aside.
That kind of talk will be generated as a result of these impressive victories by Sen. Obama, but it is too early for that with two big states coming up in March--Ohio and Texas. Those are both states where Sen. Clinton should do well and the demographics are advantageous to her. The question is whether Sen. Obama's gathering momentum will prove unstoppable and the results of the so-called Potomac Primary will have an impact on voting in those two states.
Not to be overlooked is a primary on Feb. 19 in wisconsin which comes before the big votes in March. That could become critical, too.
Sen. McCain had a tougher than expected fight in Virginia but with the wins in the District of Columbia and Maryland, his march continues. The question is how long his chief rival, former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee stays in the race. Rumors are that he will stay in through Texas (March 4) then bow out.
It is going to be a long time between now and March 4 for the Democrats in what will be an incredibly high stakes showdown.
He ran well in Maryland across demographic lines and exit polls say he won both men and women over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Sen. John McCain also was declared an easy winner in Maryland by the networks.
So, while Sen. McCain had an early scare in Virginia, he rallies to win the state, plus Maryland and the District of Columbia.
The headlines tomorrow will talk of Sen. Obama's momentum, further shakeups in the Clinton campaign (a deputy campaign manager resigned on Monday following the resignation of Campaign Director Patty Solis Doyle; the reason given was to allow the new Campaign Director, Maggie Williams, the chance to organize her own staff) and whether it is time for someone to approach Sen. Clinton and ask her to step aside.
That kind of talk will be generated as a result of these impressive victories by Sen. Obama, but it is too early for that with two big states coming up in March--Ohio and Texas. Those are both states where Sen. Clinton should do well and the demographics are advantageous to her. The question is whether Sen. Obama's gathering momentum will prove unstoppable and the results of the so-called Potomac Primary will have an impact on voting in those two states.
Not to be overlooked is a primary on Feb. 19 in wisconsin which comes before the big votes in March. That could become critical, too.
Sen. McCain had a tougher than expected fight in Virginia but with the wins in the District of Columbia and Maryland, his march continues. The question is how long his chief rival, former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee stays in the race. Rumors are that he will stay in through Texas (March 4) then bow out.
It is going to be a long time between now and March 4 for the Democrats in what will be an incredibly high stakes showdown.
Virginia Called for Sen. John McCain
Two of the American networks called the Virginia Primary for Sen. John McCain. In a winner take all race, he gets 60 delegates but avoids an embarrassing defeat to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
The Maryland polls are still open for 45 minutes.
The Maryland polls are still open for 45 minutes.
Virginia Called for Sen. Obama
The polls in Virginia closed at 7 pm EST [0000 UTC] and FOX, CNN and MSNBC all called the state easily for Sen. Barack Obama. The FOX network said that Sen. Obama should receive 66 percent of the vote in Virginia, a victory that exceeded the poll numbers.
Sen. Obama won African-American voters (about 30 percent of the electorate) 90-10, and won a huge margin with white voters who called themselves independent. But Sen. Clinton won among white voters who called themselves Democrats by a 20 points. Overall, a smashing victory for the Illinois senator who split the white vote with Sen. Clinton.
On the Republican side, the race is too close to call as conservatives and evangelicals rushed to support former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee against the presumptive nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. According to exit polls, Gov. Huckabee won self-identified Republicans by two points and independents by nine points.
Bottom line so far: great victory by Sen. Obama who seems to be inching closer to generating momentum that could be unstoppable. His vote totals among non-African American voters are becoming more impressive with each outing. Analysts say Virginia was the state where Sen. Clinton could have pulled an upset.
Sen. Obama also won in the District of Columbia, no surprise there.
For Sen. McCain, this has to be disheartening. An outright loss would not derail him from the nomination but would indicate some holes in his election strategy. He has to wrap up the voters that Gov. Huckabee is now getting in states like Virginia.
As one analyst wrote, "Can't McCain put this guy away?...Why is this guy winning?"
A judge kept the polls in Maryland open until 9:30 pm [0130 UTC] because of traffic and weather conditions in the state.
Sen. Obama won African-American voters (about 30 percent of the electorate) 90-10, and won a huge margin with white voters who called themselves independent. But Sen. Clinton won among white voters who called themselves Democrats by a 20 points. Overall, a smashing victory for the Illinois senator who split the white vote with Sen. Clinton.
On the Republican side, the race is too close to call as conservatives and evangelicals rushed to support former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee against the presumptive nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. According to exit polls, Gov. Huckabee won self-identified Republicans by two points and independents by nine points.
Bottom line so far: great victory by Sen. Obama who seems to be inching closer to generating momentum that could be unstoppable. His vote totals among non-African American voters are becoming more impressive with each outing. Analysts say Virginia was the state where Sen. Clinton could have pulled an upset.
Sen. Obama also won in the District of Columbia, no surprise there.
For Sen. McCain, this has to be disheartening. An outright loss would not derail him from the nomination but would indicate some holes in his election strategy. He has to wrap up the voters that Gov. Huckabee is now getting in states like Virginia.
As one analyst wrote, "Can't McCain put this guy away?...Why is this guy winning?"
A judge kept the polls in Maryland open until 9:30 pm [0130 UTC] because of traffic and weather conditions in the state.
I got a nice e-mail from visitor Charles Muchimba from Zambia who asked about the presidential race. I replied privately and got back this note:
"Thanks for your mail and analysis about the 2008 American race to the White House. It made good reading and I personally enjoyed it vehemently."
Well, Charles, glad you did, and I am always happy to answer queries and comments. Opinions are welcome, too. I won't post them unless you authorize me to or you want your thoughts shared among readers of this blog.
The e-mail address is up on the right hand side, feel free to mail away.
"Thanks for your mail and analysis about the 2008 American race to the White House. It made good reading and I personally enjoyed it vehemently."
Well, Charles, glad you did, and I am always happy to answer queries and comments. Opinions are welcome, too. I won't post them unless you authorize me to or you want your thoughts shared among readers of this blog.
The e-mail address is up on the right hand side, feel free to mail away.
Potomac Primary
Because the Potomac River runs through the two states and the District of Columbia which vote today in Republican and Democratic Party primaries, the primary elections are being called the "Potomac Primary".
What is also being called by most political analysts here is that it should be a very good day for Illinois Senator Barack Obama as he continues his quest for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. His rival, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, also hopes to do well in the Potomac Primary but perhaps in a different way.
Most pre-election polls indicate that Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton in Maryland by 18-23 points; in Virginia by 15-22 points, and with the District of Columbia having one of the highest percentages of African-American populations in the nation (56 percent), Senator Obama is all but conceded the District's primary delegates as well.
At stake for the Democrats are 168 of 238 total delegates; currently, Sen. Obama leads Sen. Clinton in overall delegates according to RealClearPolitics.com, 1144 to 1138; 2025 are needed to win.
With momentum going Sen. Obama's way, an interesting development occurs. Suddenly, he is the frontrunner in the spotlight and expectations rise that he will win convincingly today. Perceptions are everything in politics, and now not only is he supposed to win, but he is supposed to win "big". Anything less, several commentators point out, could be construed not as a loss necessarily, but a result that would engender the question: why didn't he win by more? An actual defeat in either Virginia or Maryland would be the surprise of the month.
While polls do not indicate that Sen. Obama will lose, there are some things to keep in mind that may hold down the magnitude of any Sen. Obama victory. The state of Maryland seems tailor-made for Sen. Obama. Some 37 percent of Democratic primary voters there will be African-American, a group Sen. Obama is winning almost monolithically, and Maryland has large concentrations of educated, affluent voters, another group in which Sen. Obama scores well.
But there are also working-class enclaves in Maryland with voters who are not as affluent as their suburban neighbors and who live mostly in rural areas and suburban Baltimore (Maryland's largest city). These would presumably favor Sen. Clinton; there are also many activists who were part of the Clinton administration in Maryland who would also vote for the New York senator and the state's governor and senior senator have endorsed Sen. Clinton.
Over in Virginia, the race also leans towards Sen. Obama but again, there are pockets of voters who will support Sen. Clinton--professional women and seniors, the growing Latino communities and those citizens who worked in the Clinton administration. So again, while it looks good for Sen. Obama (according to polling data), the question is not whether he wins, but by how much.
So how much is how much? My professional antennae tell me that anything less then a ten-percentage point win for Sen. Obama in either state could be considered a "loss" in the expectations game; So while Sen. Obama is still favored to win both states, it's the margin that is critical. And as I said earlier, a loss by Sen. Obama in either state could be a blow to his efforts.
Over on the Republican side, it's also about margin but the Republican margin is about the number of votes garnered by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as he continues the race against the presumptive nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. No one doubts Sen. McCain will win the Potomac Primary. The question is, by how much.
Recent surveys in Virginia of more than 400 voters show the Arizona senator with 20-point leads; but tracking surveys of less than 400 voters by SurveyUSA show that Gov. Huckabee has closed a 32-point margin on 2/7 to 2/8, to an 11-point margin on 2/9 to 2/10. Sen. McCain is doing very well in Maryland and there are no late trends to indicate otherwise.
But if the SurveyUSA trend in Virginia is true, it's another irritant to Sen. McCain who is trying to rally all Republicans to his candidacy. It could show he still has some work to do but he does have the time to do it. The question then becomes how long Gov. Huckabee stays in the race (along with Cong. Ron Paul of Texas).
Turnout is expected to be heavy in the Potomac Primary, particularly in the Democratic Party, which has been true for almost all the contests to date.
I'll be posting results later tonight (8 pm EST--0100 UTC). The expectation is the contests will be called early; the later the call, the more interesting the result. You can also tune to VOA shortwave frequencies and follow the voting on www.voanews.com.
And again, I welcome your questions and comments. The e-mail address is over to the right and you can post a comment if you wish.
What is also being called by most political analysts here is that it should be a very good day for Illinois Senator Barack Obama as he continues his quest for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. His rival, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, also hopes to do well in the Potomac Primary but perhaps in a different way.
Most pre-election polls indicate that Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton in Maryland by 18-23 points; in Virginia by 15-22 points, and with the District of Columbia having one of the highest percentages of African-American populations in the nation (56 percent), Senator Obama is all but conceded the District's primary delegates as well.
At stake for the Democrats are 168 of 238 total delegates; currently, Sen. Obama leads Sen. Clinton in overall delegates according to RealClearPolitics.com, 1144 to 1138; 2025 are needed to win.
With momentum going Sen. Obama's way, an interesting development occurs. Suddenly, he is the frontrunner in the spotlight and expectations rise that he will win convincingly today. Perceptions are everything in politics, and now not only is he supposed to win, but he is supposed to win "big". Anything less, several commentators point out, could be construed not as a loss necessarily, but a result that would engender the question: why didn't he win by more? An actual defeat in either Virginia or Maryland would be the surprise of the month.
While polls do not indicate that Sen. Obama will lose, there are some things to keep in mind that may hold down the magnitude of any Sen. Obama victory. The state of Maryland seems tailor-made for Sen. Obama. Some 37 percent of Democratic primary voters there will be African-American, a group Sen. Obama is winning almost monolithically, and Maryland has large concentrations of educated, affluent voters, another group in which Sen. Obama scores well.
But there are also working-class enclaves in Maryland with voters who are not as affluent as their suburban neighbors and who live mostly in rural areas and suburban Baltimore (Maryland's largest city). These would presumably favor Sen. Clinton; there are also many activists who were part of the Clinton administration in Maryland who would also vote for the New York senator and the state's governor and senior senator have endorsed Sen. Clinton.
Over in Virginia, the race also leans towards Sen. Obama but again, there are pockets of voters who will support Sen. Clinton--professional women and seniors, the growing Latino communities and those citizens who worked in the Clinton administration. So again, while it looks good for Sen. Obama (according to polling data), the question is not whether he wins, but by how much.
So how much is how much? My professional antennae tell me that anything less then a ten-percentage point win for Sen. Obama in either state could be considered a "loss" in the expectations game; So while Sen. Obama is still favored to win both states, it's the margin that is critical. And as I said earlier, a loss by Sen. Obama in either state could be a blow to his efforts.
Over on the Republican side, it's also about margin but the Republican margin is about the number of votes garnered by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as he continues the race against the presumptive nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. No one doubts Sen. McCain will win the Potomac Primary. The question is, by how much.
Recent surveys in Virginia of more than 400 voters show the Arizona senator with 20-point leads; but tracking surveys of less than 400 voters by SurveyUSA show that Gov. Huckabee has closed a 32-point margin on 2/7 to 2/8, to an 11-point margin on 2/9 to 2/10. Sen. McCain is doing very well in Maryland and there are no late trends to indicate otherwise.
But if the SurveyUSA trend in Virginia is true, it's another irritant to Sen. McCain who is trying to rally all Republicans to his candidacy. It could show he still has some work to do but he does have the time to do it. The question then becomes how long Gov. Huckabee stays in the race (along with Cong. Ron Paul of Texas).
Turnout is expected to be heavy in the Potomac Primary, particularly in the Democratic Party, which has been true for almost all the contests to date.
I'll be posting results later tonight (8 pm EST--0100 UTC). The expectation is the contests will be called early; the later the call, the more interesting the result. You can also tune to VOA shortwave frequencies and follow the voting on www.voanews.com.
And again, I welcome your questions and comments. The e-mail address is over to the right and you can post a comment if you wish.
February 11, 2008
Weekend Review
With Sen. Barack Obama's win in Sunday's Maine caucuses (59 percent to 40 percent), he now takes a miniscule lead in the delegate count according to RealClearPolitics.com, 1143 to 1138, with 2025 needed to win.
Sen. Obama also won races this past weekend in Louisiana, 57 percent to 36 percent, in Nebraska by a 68 percent to 32 percent margin, and in the state of Washington, 68 percent to 31 percent. The next round of critical voting is Tuesday, with primaries in Virginia (83 of 101 delegates at stake), Maryland (70 of 99), and the District of Columbia (15 of 38). The Illinois senator leads polls in Virginia and Maryland (he is up by high double digits--17 and 21 percent respectively) and will likely win by a landslide in the District of Columbia.
Suffice to say, it was a great weekend and probably will be a great Tuesday for him as well.
While the campaign of Sen. Clinton expected the weekend results, and also expect to lose the primaries on Tuesday, they nevertheless made some changes in leadership. Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle was replaced over the weekend by Maggie Williams. Ms. Williams served as chief of staff to Sen. Clinton when she was First Lady during the administration of her husband, President Bill Clinton.
This followed another development in which Sen. Clinton said she had loaned her campaign several million dollars which has since been paid back.
All of these results led to speculation in Washington that the campaign needed a new approach to the race and some fresh energy.
After the primaries in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia (Feb. 12 marks the end of the primary period for Democrats who live around the world, the so-called "Democrats Abroad" race with seven delegates at stake), Wisconsin (74 of 92 delegates) and Hawaii (29) vote on Feb. 19. They are followed by Texas (193 of 228), Ohio (141 of 161), Rhode Island (21 of 32), and Vermont (15 of 23) which all vote on March 4.
These are states where Sen. Clinton is expected to do well and take back some of the momentum from Sen. Obama.
On the Republican side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had a good weekend winning caucuses in Louisiana and Kansas. He is contesting the results of the caucuses in Washington which showed him trailing by two percentage points to Sen. McCain, 26 to 24. Texas Rep. Ron Paul finished with 21 percent and remains in the race.
Analysts saw the results as a reminder that Sen. McCain, while the universal choice to be the Republican Party presidential nominee, still has some fences to mend among certain blocs of voters, particularly those who chose Gov. Huckabee in the weekend voting. According to RealClearPolitics, Sen. McCain has 724 delegates to 284 for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (who left the race last week), Gov. Huckabee with 234, and Rep. Paul with 14. To win, you need 1191.
The bottom line for the Democrats seems to be that Sen. Clinton must do well on March 4, otherwise she risks being overwhelmed by the Illinois senator which could lead party officials and the press to conclude that the race is over. She was in a similar situation before the New Hampshire Primary in early January and came back to win in a surprise victory, so many here are not counting her out.
For Sen. McCain and the Republicans, the race continues but he will be more concerned with trying to rally all Republicans around his candidacy and is looking into choosing a running mate. Several names are being floated, but with the convention still seven months away, that decision is probably far off.
Sen. Obama also won races this past weekend in Louisiana, 57 percent to 36 percent, in Nebraska by a 68 percent to 32 percent margin, and in the state of Washington, 68 percent to 31 percent. The next round of critical voting is Tuesday, with primaries in Virginia (83 of 101 delegates at stake), Maryland (70 of 99), and the District of Columbia (15 of 38). The Illinois senator leads polls in Virginia and Maryland (he is up by high double digits--17 and 21 percent respectively) and will likely win by a landslide in the District of Columbia.
Suffice to say, it was a great weekend and probably will be a great Tuesday for him as well.
While the campaign of Sen. Clinton expected the weekend results, and also expect to lose the primaries on Tuesday, they nevertheless made some changes in leadership. Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle was replaced over the weekend by Maggie Williams. Ms. Williams served as chief of staff to Sen. Clinton when she was First Lady during the administration of her husband, President Bill Clinton.
This followed another development in which Sen. Clinton said she had loaned her campaign several million dollars which has since been paid back.
All of these results led to speculation in Washington that the campaign needed a new approach to the race and some fresh energy.
After the primaries in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia (Feb. 12 marks the end of the primary period for Democrats who live around the world, the so-called "Democrats Abroad" race with seven delegates at stake), Wisconsin (74 of 92 delegates) and Hawaii (29) vote on Feb. 19. They are followed by Texas (193 of 228), Ohio (141 of 161), Rhode Island (21 of 32), and Vermont (15 of 23) which all vote on March 4.
These are states where Sen. Clinton is expected to do well and take back some of the momentum from Sen. Obama.
On the Republican side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had a good weekend winning caucuses in Louisiana and Kansas. He is contesting the results of the caucuses in Washington which showed him trailing by two percentage points to Sen. McCain, 26 to 24. Texas Rep. Ron Paul finished with 21 percent and remains in the race.
Analysts saw the results as a reminder that Sen. McCain, while the universal choice to be the Republican Party presidential nominee, still has some fences to mend among certain blocs of voters, particularly those who chose Gov. Huckabee in the weekend voting. According to RealClearPolitics, Sen. McCain has 724 delegates to 284 for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (who left the race last week), Gov. Huckabee with 234, and Rep. Paul with 14. To win, you need 1191.
The bottom line for the Democrats seems to be that Sen. Clinton must do well on March 4, otherwise she risks being overwhelmed by the Illinois senator which could lead party officials and the press to conclude that the race is over. She was in a similar situation before the New Hampshire Primary in early January and came back to win in a surprise victory, so many here are not counting her out.
For Sen. McCain and the Republicans, the race continues but he will be more concerned with trying to rally all Republicans around his candidacy and is looking into choosing a running mate. Several names are being floated, but with the convention still seven months away, that decision is probably far off.
February 10, 2008
Super Delegates and the Delegate Count for Democrats
As a result of voting this past weekend (the state of Maine's caucuses in the Democratic Party have yet to be completed at this writing), the delegate race between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has tightened even further.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, the tally stands at Sen. Clinton, 1121, Sen. Obama, 1106. The winner needs to get 2,025 out of the 4,049 total delegates at the Democratic National Convention scheduled for August in Denver, Colorado.
Various scenarios are being spun out as to what the delegate total might be after all the primaries and caucuses are finished in June. Most analysts are stopping at the April 22 vote in Pennsylvania as the drop-dead marker for the nomination, although seven states and one territory will hold their contests between May 6 and June 7 with 492 total delegates at stake.
There is a consensus emerging that barring a landslide towards one candidate or the other, neither will have enough to claim the nomination once all the voting is over.
Enter the Super Delegates.
Super Delegates are not delegates endowed with power "far beyond those of mortal men" like the American cartoon character Superman. Instead, the Democrats decided two decades ago that along with the pledged delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses, a certain number of delegate positions would be allotted for what is known as "party insiders"--major elected officials (governors, members of Congress, other luminaries) and chairmen of the state Democratic Party organizations. These super delegates (there are 796 of them) are unpledged, that is, they are not bound by any election results in their states, and can vote for whomever they wish. They are the party establishment, the wise graybeards, who would rise above the petty squabbling and do what is best for the party in the election year, whatever the consequences.
These Super Delegates were created, in the opinion of many convention observers, to ameliorate the kind of deadlock that seems to be developing in 2008. In theory, these delegates would, quietly and out of the limelight, come to a consensus on who should win the nomination, and deliver their votes accordingly. The campaigns would be counseled privately, a compromise reached, and the party enters the convention with the winner known and selected.
That is the theory anyway. But that's not always the way things turn out. The super delegates are subject to pressures of their own. So far, according to RealClearPolitics.com, 348 of the 796 sd's (for short) have publicly pledged themselves. Sen. Clinton gets 211, Sen. Obama, 137. The other 448 are being lobbied furiously with phone calls, e-mails, etc.
The glib reaction is that the sd's will follow the voters' decisions. That is, Super Delegate X will vote for whoever won the primary or caucus in their state. That is certainly possible but imagine this scenario. You are a governor in his or her second term who eventually plans to run for senator at some point. Because you expect to get help and support from Sen. Clinton;s campaign, and you're a long-time friend and ally, and you truly think she can win in November, you opt to vote for her. But the Obama forces come and say that if you want the sizable African-American voting bloc in your state to ever support you again, you better vote for Sen. Obama. What do you do? Suddenly, it's not that easy.
So, in my mind, the super delegates will be whipsawed back and forth among competing factions, but in the end, I think they will do what they believe is in the best interests of the party and its electoral chances.
There are suggestions being made to do away with the super delegates entirely and leave the decisions in the hands of the voters who have taken part in the process so far. But I don't think you change the rules in the middle of the game, and these delegates are there for a reason--to bring the collective wisdom of those who have the biggest stake in the party; not some independent voters who cast a one-time ballot in a primary for a party to which they do not belong.
If I had to guess, I don't think these rules will be changed, although I would not venture to say what the eventual process will be by which the super delegates award their crucial votes. But the party set it up this way and the rules should be honored and remain in place for all candidates. In this case, the "cure" might be worse than the disease.
As you follow this voting from wherever it is you reside, I would love to hear what you think regarding this issue for the Democratic Party. Just drop us an e-mail or leave a comment and we can start the discussion going.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, the tally stands at Sen. Clinton, 1121, Sen. Obama, 1106. The winner needs to get 2,025 out of the 4,049 total delegates at the Democratic National Convention scheduled for August in Denver, Colorado.
Various scenarios are being spun out as to what the delegate total might be after all the primaries and caucuses are finished in June. Most analysts are stopping at the April 22 vote in Pennsylvania as the drop-dead marker for the nomination, although seven states and one territory will hold their contests between May 6 and June 7 with 492 total delegates at stake.
There is a consensus emerging that barring a landslide towards one candidate or the other, neither will have enough to claim the nomination once all the voting is over.
Enter the Super Delegates.
Super Delegates are not delegates endowed with power "far beyond those of mortal men" like the American cartoon character Superman. Instead, the Democrats decided two decades ago that along with the pledged delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses, a certain number of delegate positions would be allotted for what is known as "party insiders"--major elected officials (governors, members of Congress, other luminaries) and chairmen of the state Democratic Party organizations. These super delegates (there are 796 of them) are unpledged, that is, they are not bound by any election results in their states, and can vote for whomever they wish. They are the party establishment, the wise graybeards, who would rise above the petty squabbling and do what is best for the party in the election year, whatever the consequences.
These Super Delegates were created, in the opinion of many convention observers, to ameliorate the kind of deadlock that seems to be developing in 2008. In theory, these delegates would, quietly and out of the limelight, come to a consensus on who should win the nomination, and deliver their votes accordingly. The campaigns would be counseled privately, a compromise reached, and the party enters the convention with the winner known and selected.
That is the theory anyway. But that's not always the way things turn out. The super delegates are subject to pressures of their own. So far, according to RealClearPolitics.com, 348 of the 796 sd's (for short) have publicly pledged themselves. Sen. Clinton gets 211, Sen. Obama, 137. The other 448 are being lobbied furiously with phone calls, e-mails, etc.
The glib reaction is that the sd's will follow the voters' decisions. That is, Super Delegate X will vote for whoever won the primary or caucus in their state. That is certainly possible but imagine this scenario. You are a governor in his or her second term who eventually plans to run for senator at some point. Because you expect to get help and support from Sen. Clinton;s campaign, and you're a long-time friend and ally, and you truly think she can win in November, you opt to vote for her. But the Obama forces come and say that if you want the sizable African-American voting bloc in your state to ever support you again, you better vote for Sen. Obama. What do you do? Suddenly, it's not that easy.
So, in my mind, the super delegates will be whipsawed back and forth among competing factions, but in the end, I think they will do what they believe is in the best interests of the party and its electoral chances.
There are suggestions being made to do away with the super delegates entirely and leave the decisions in the hands of the voters who have taken part in the process so far. But I don't think you change the rules in the middle of the game, and these delegates are there for a reason--to bring the collective wisdom of those who have the biggest stake in the party; not some independent voters who cast a one-time ballot in a primary for a party to which they do not belong.
If I had to guess, I don't think these rules will be changed, although I would not venture to say what the eventual process will be by which the super delegates award their crucial votes. But the party set it up this way and the rules should be honored and remain in place for all candidates. In this case, the "cure" might be worse than the disease.
As you follow this voting from wherever it is you reside, I would love to hear what you think regarding this issue for the Democratic Party. Just drop us an e-mail or leave a comment and we can start the discussion going.
February 9, 2008
Primary Update
In the Nebraska Caucus for the Democrats, it's Senator Barack Obama 68 percent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, 32 percent; in the precinct caucuses of Washington State for the Democrats, it's Senator Obama, 68 percent, Senator Clinton, 32 percent.
On the Republican side, the primary caucus has front-runner and likely nominee Senator John McCain with 27 percent; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 26 percent, and Congressman Ron Paul with 21 percent in early returns.
As far as delegates go, because of the complex rules regarding delegate selection in these caucuses (the caucus being but the first step in the actual selection process), Senator Obama picked up 16 delegates of 31 tonight in Nebraska; the rest will be determined later. Delegates in other contests will also be determined in the future.
There are caucuses in Maine on Sunday for the Democrats which are the first step in a multi-step delegate selection process.
Current Democratic delegate count: Sen Clinton, 1079, Sen. Barack, 1017.
Current Republican delegate count: Sen. McCain, 724, former Masschusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 281 (he has dropped out of the race), Gov. Huckabee, 196, Cong. Paul, 14.
The exit polls in Louisiana show that Sen. Clinton won older voters over 60 and white voters; Sen. Obama won younger voters and African-America voters (50 percent of the caucus electorate in Louisiana) and he won both males and females in the caucus according to exit polling.
With 24 percent of the vote in, it's Sen. Obama 52, Sen. Clinton, 39.
These caucuses were expected to be for Sen. Obama and they are holding true to form, a good night for him. He is also expected to do well on Tuesday in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Sen. Clinton's strength will come in the bigger primaries in March in Texas and Ohio.
As I said, this is getting interesting.
On the Republican side, the primary caucus has front-runner and likely nominee Senator John McCain with 27 percent; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 26 percent, and Congressman Ron Paul with 21 percent in early returns.
As far as delegates go, because of the complex rules regarding delegate selection in these caucuses (the caucus being but the first step in the actual selection process), Senator Obama picked up 16 delegates of 31 tonight in Nebraska; the rest will be determined later. Delegates in other contests will also be determined in the future.
There are caucuses in Maine on Sunday for the Democrats which are the first step in a multi-step delegate selection process.
Current Democratic delegate count: Sen Clinton, 1079, Sen. Barack, 1017.
Current Republican delegate count: Sen. McCain, 724, former Masschusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 281 (he has dropped out of the race), Gov. Huckabee, 196, Cong. Paul, 14.
The exit polls in Louisiana show that Sen. Clinton won older voters over 60 and white voters; Sen. Obama won younger voters and African-America voters (50 percent of the caucus electorate in Louisiana) and he won both males and females in the caucus according to exit polling.
With 24 percent of the vote in, it's Sen. Obama 52, Sen. Clinton, 39.
These caucuses were expected to be for Sen. Obama and they are holding true to form, a good night for him. He is also expected to do well on Tuesday in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Sen. Clinton's strength will come in the bigger primaries in March in Texas and Ohio.
As I said, this is getting interesting.
Mike Huckabee Wins Kansas Caucus in Republican Party
The Republican Party caucus in Kansas has been called for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. He got 61 percent of the vote to Sen. John McCain's 24 percent and Cong. Ron Paul's 11 percent.
Gov. Huckabee got 36 (of 39 pledged) delegates in Kansas giving him 231 according to MSNBC with Sen. McCain at 721. Cong. Paul has 14. Gov. Huckabee vowed to stay in the race until Sen. McCain goes over the 1,191 votes needed to secure the nomination. Some analysts believe the former Arkansas governor is angling for the vice presidential slot on the Republican ticket.
No word yet on the Democrats voting in the Louisiana primary and caucuses held in Nebraska, the state of Washington, and the the Virgin Islands.
Even though Sen. McCain has all but clinched the nomination, political observers were noting that he has yet to make the final sale to what they call "heartland voters" such as the ones in Kansas. President Bush won Kansas in 2004 with 62 percent of the vote. Kansas is a reliably Republican state.
But caucus attendees are often said to be more motivated than primary voters and Gov. Huckabee's supporters still had a chance to demonstrate their backing. It is an indication though that Sen. McCain has to mend some fences in the party. He began that late last week with a well-received speech at the Conservative Political Action Caucus, many of whose members were supporting former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. While not overly enthusiastic, many of its members thought the likely nominee took the first steps towards gaining their support.
The results of the Kansas Caucus do not alter the status of the Republican race as Sen. McCain has all but been annointed by the press and party officials as the nominee.
Gov. Huckabee got 36 (of 39 pledged) delegates in Kansas giving him 231 according to MSNBC with Sen. McCain at 721. Cong. Paul has 14. Gov. Huckabee vowed to stay in the race until Sen. McCain goes over the 1,191 votes needed to secure the nomination. Some analysts believe the former Arkansas governor is angling for the vice presidential slot on the Republican ticket.
No word yet on the Democrats voting in the Louisiana primary and caucuses held in Nebraska, the state of Washington, and the the Virgin Islands.
Even though Sen. McCain has all but clinched the nomination, political observers were noting that he has yet to make the final sale to what they call "heartland voters" such as the ones in Kansas. President Bush won Kansas in 2004 with 62 percent of the vote. Kansas is a reliably Republican state.
But caucus attendees are often said to be more motivated than primary voters and Gov. Huckabee's supporters still had a chance to demonstrate their backing. It is an indication though that Sen. McCain has to mend some fences in the party. He began that late last week with a well-received speech at the Conservative Political Action Caucus, many of whose members were supporting former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. While not overly enthusiastic, many of its members thought the likely nominee took the first steps towards gaining their support.
The results of the Kansas Caucus do not alter the status of the Republican race as Sen. McCain has all but been annointed by the press and party officials as the nominee.
Semi-Super Saturday
Catching up on weekend politics, there are several primaries and caucuses being contested this Saturday:
Republicans:
Louisiana--Primary--not open to independents, 47 delegates
Washington--Caucus--40 delegates
Kansas--Primary--not open to independents, 39 delegates
Democrats:
Washington--Caucus--97 delegates
Lousiana--Primary, not open to independents, 66 delegates
Nebraska--Primary, open to independents, 31 delegates
Currently, the delegate totals, according to RealClearPolitics:
Republicans:
Sen. John McCain, 724; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 281, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, 196, Rep. Ron Paul, 14.
Gov. Romney dropped out of the race on Thursday, leaving Gov. Huckabee and Cong. Paul still running, but for all intents and purposes, Sen. McCain is the Republican Party nominee.
Democrats:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, 1076; Sen. Barack Obama, 1015.
After this weekend's contests, there are a series of primaries in the Washington, D.C. area (Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia) that augur well for the candidacy of Sen. Obama; following that is delegate selection in several states highlighted on March 4 (the date presidents used to be inaugurated) by Texas and Ohio where Sen. Clinton could do well.
Pennsylvania, another state where Sen. Clinton is expected to do well votes on April 22. That contest could be affected by the results that go before so we'll watch that one.
After Pennsylvania, there are fewer delegates available in the eight states left to vote.
I'll try and have the results from Saturday's contests up later.
This is getting very interesting on the Democratic side; the Republican side is pretty much over.
Republicans:
Louisiana--Primary--not open to independents, 47 delegates
Washington--Caucus--40 delegates
Kansas--Primary--not open to independents, 39 delegates
Democrats:
Washington--Caucus--97 delegates
Lousiana--Primary, not open to independents, 66 delegates
Nebraska--Primary, open to independents, 31 delegates
Currently, the delegate totals, according to RealClearPolitics:
Republicans:
Sen. John McCain, 724; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 281, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, 196, Rep. Ron Paul, 14.
Gov. Romney dropped out of the race on Thursday, leaving Gov. Huckabee and Cong. Paul still running, but for all intents and purposes, Sen. McCain is the Republican Party nominee.
Democrats:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, 1076; Sen. Barack Obama, 1015.
After this weekend's contests, there are a series of primaries in the Washington, D.C. area (Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia) that augur well for the candidacy of Sen. Obama; following that is delegate selection in several states highlighted on March 4 (the date presidents used to be inaugurated) by Texas and Ohio where Sen. Clinton could do well.
Pennsylvania, another state where Sen. Clinton is expected to do well votes on April 22. That contest could be affected by the results that go before so we'll watch that one.
After Pennsylvania, there are fewer delegates available in the eight states left to vote.
I'll try and have the results from Saturday's contests up later.
This is getting very interesting on the Democratic side; the Republican side is pretty much over.
February 7, 2008
Mitt Romney Suspends Campaign, Delegate Counts
I've been away for a bit, but in catching up, the big news is over on the Republican side.
Today, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said he would pull out of the race, effectively yielding the Republican presidential nomination to Sen. John McCain. Sen. McCain's only remaining rivals, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Congressman Ron Paul, badly trail the leader in delegate counts (more on that in a few).
Some press reports indicate that if Sen. McCain loses this year, Gov. Romney will make another attempt in 2012. I will try and have more on this somewhat later.
Meanwhile, the delegate count in both parties:
REPUBLICANS: (Needed to nominate--(1191) Sen. McCain: 720, Gov. Romney: 279; Gov. Huckabee: 197, Cong. Paul: 14
DEMOCRATS: (Needed to nominate: 2025) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, NY--1060; Sen. Barack Obama, Illinois (981)
The Democrats' race will continue with no clear leader in sight with several primaries upcoming. The Repbulican race, is effectively over, although Gov. Huckabee will stay in as will Cong. Paul.
Today, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said he would pull out of the race, effectively yielding the Republican presidential nomination to Sen. John McCain. Sen. McCain's only remaining rivals, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Congressman Ron Paul, badly trail the leader in delegate counts (more on that in a few).
Some press reports indicate that if Sen. McCain loses this year, Gov. Romney will make another attempt in 2012. I will try and have more on this somewhat later.
Meanwhile, the delegate count in both parties:
REPUBLICANS: (Needed to nominate--(1191) Sen. McCain: 720, Gov. Romney: 279; Gov. Huckabee: 197, Cong. Paul: 14
DEMOCRATS: (Needed to nominate: 2025) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, NY--1060; Sen. Barack Obama, Illinois (981)
The Democrats' race will continue with no clear leader in sight with several primaries upcoming. The Repbulican race, is effectively over, although Gov. Huckabee will stay in as will Cong. Paul.
February 5, 2008
State Winner Roundup
Here are the projected states won by each of the candidates running in Super Tuesday:
DEMOCRATS:
Sen Hillary Rodham Clinton: New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arkansas, New York
Sen. Barack Obama: Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Delaware
Races in Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee too close to call
REPUBLICANS
Sen. John McCain: New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut, Delaware
Gov. Mitt Romney: Massachusetts, Utah
Gov. Mike Huckabee: Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia
Races in Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee too close to call
Looking at these results to date, as one writer put it, the surprise is that there are no surprises. The only real surprise may be a Sen. Obama victory in Connecticut if that holds up.
Gov. Romney needs to win a big state, either Missouri or California, to still have a chance in the race.
Senators Clinton and Obama are trading states back and forth with perhaps Sen. Clinton having an edge winning big states like New York and New Jersey; Sen. Obama winning the big state of Illinois helps him but he has won much smaller states; the delegate count between them is close. Several states remain to be decided, including California, so we are all waiting for that one.
DEMOCRATS:
Sen Hillary Rodham Clinton: New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arkansas, New York
Sen. Barack Obama: Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Delaware
Races in Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee too close to call
REPUBLICANS
Sen. John McCain: New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut, Delaware
Gov. Mitt Romney: Massachusetts, Utah
Gov. Mike Huckabee: Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia
Races in Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee too close to call
Looking at these results to date, as one writer put it, the surprise is that there are no surprises. The only real surprise may be a Sen. Obama victory in Connecticut if that holds up.
Gov. Romney needs to win a big state, either Missouri or California, to still have a chance in the race.
Senators Clinton and Obama are trading states back and forth with perhaps Sen. Clinton having an edge winning big states like New York and New Jersey; Sen. Obama winning the big state of Illinois helps him but he has won much smaller states; the delegate count between them is close. Several states remain to be decided, including California, so we are all waiting for that one.
Sen. Clinton Called Winner in New Jersey
Sen Hillary Rodham Clinton has been called the winner in the Democratic Primary in New Jersey where she was in a tight race with Sen. Barack Obama.
New Jersey borders New York, the state that sent Sen. Clinton to the Senate; the state that borders New York on the east, Connecticut, is still a very tight race. It would be an upset if Sen. Obama won so close to Sen. Clinton's base of New York.
New Jersey borders New York, the state that sent Sen. Clinton to the Senate; the state that borders New York on the east, Connecticut, is still a very tight race. It would be an upset if Sen. Obama won so close to Sen. Clinton's base of New York.
New Exit Polls
Some updated exit polls to report:
In the Republican race in Missouri, where former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney held a slight lead, Sen. McCain has gone up on him by three percentage points, 33-30; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee trails at 27 percent...
In Georgia for the Republicans, it's Gov. Huckabee at 32 percent, Gov. Romney at 31 percent, and Sen. McCain at 30 percent in a very close race, too close to call.
For the Republicans in California, updated exit polling indicates Sen. McCain leading at 40 percent, Gov. Romney, 35 percent, and Gov. Mike Huckabee, 12 percent. In Teneessee, exit polling shows Gov. Huckabee at 33 percent; Sen. McCain at 30 percent, and Gov. Romney at 27 percent.
Gov. Huckabee has also been projected to win the Alabama primary for the Republicans as well. Gov. Romney has been projected to win Massachusetts, the state where he was a governor.
The most interesting result seems to be in Arizona, Sen. McCain's home state, where Sen. McCain is at 36 percent, Gov. Romney, 36 percent, and Gov. Huckabee 7 percent. That's interesting!
Additionally, Sen. McCain is credited with winning Connecticut and Illinois. Sen. Obama wins his home state of Illinois.
In the Republican race in Missouri, where former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney held a slight lead, Sen. McCain has gone up on him by three percentage points, 33-30; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee trails at 27 percent...
In Georgia for the Republicans, it's Gov. Huckabee at 32 percent, Gov. Romney at 31 percent, and Sen. McCain at 30 percent in a very close race, too close to call.
For the Republicans in California, updated exit polling indicates Sen. McCain leading at 40 percent, Gov. Romney, 35 percent, and Gov. Mike Huckabee, 12 percent. In Teneessee, exit polling shows Gov. Huckabee at 33 percent; Sen. McCain at 30 percent, and Gov. Romney at 27 percent.
Gov. Huckabee has also been projected to win the Alabama primary for the Republicans as well. Gov. Romney has been projected to win Massachusetts, the state where he was a governor.
The most interesting result seems to be in Arizona, Sen. McCain's home state, where Sen. McCain is at 36 percent, Gov. Romney, 36 percent, and Gov. Huckabee 7 percent. That's interesting!
Additionally, Sen. McCain is credited with winning Connecticut and Illinois. Sen. Obama wins his home state of Illinois.
Heading for the Exits
The exit polling from some of today's Super Tuesday primaries is beginning to leak out giving some tantalizing hints as to what may transpire across the country. There are some surprises.
In Missouri, a closely-watched state because it tends to predict electoral winners, early Republican exit polling shows Gov. Mitt Romney at 34 percent, Sen. John McCain, 32 percent, and Gov. Mike Huckabee 25 percent. The race was predicted to be close in Missouri for the Republicans but this is a winner-take-all state and if Gov. Romney holds on to win, he would get 58 delegates and a major victory. Again, these are early voters and the numbers could change.
In Missouri's Democratic battle, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton by four points in early exit polling. This is a state where many Democratic voters still describe themselves as moderate or conservative and the percentage of African-Americans, who are supporting Sen. Obama heavily, is at only 12 percent. Sen. Obama received an important endorsement from Missouri Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill so that may be helping him.
The states in the American South are supporting Sen. Obama in great numbers in Democratic primaries there. Massachusetts, on which I posted earlier, still shows a tight race with Sen. Obama slightly ahead. Voting in the Oklahoma Democratic primary is heavily in favor of Sen. Clinton.
Returning to the Republicans, Sen. McCain is easily winning the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, as expected. In southern states, preliminary exit polling shows Gov. Mike Huckabee ahead in Alabama (42 percent to 33 percent for Sen. McCain, and 20 percent for Gov. Romney); in Tennessee, Gov. Huckabee leads over Sen. McCain and Gov. Romney, 34-28-23; and in Arkansas (where Mike Huckabee was governor), he leads over Sen. McCain and Gov. Romney, 33-21-19.
Now the big prize--California, a state where Gov. Romney has had a "surge" of his own. Exit polling (including two waves of data) shows a very close race, 40-38, Sen. McCain over Gov. Romney; this one could go down to the wire, no calls yet.
And this just in, the polls closed in Georgia about ten minutes ago and the networks have already called the Democratic primary for Sen. Obama in what is described as a rout. Half the voters in the Democratic Party electorate are African-Americans, so no real surprise there.
More poll closings in about 45 minutes [0100 UTC]. More results and polls as they come in.
In Missouri, a closely-watched state because it tends to predict electoral winners, early Republican exit polling shows Gov. Mitt Romney at 34 percent, Sen. John McCain, 32 percent, and Gov. Mike Huckabee 25 percent. The race was predicted to be close in Missouri for the Republicans but this is a winner-take-all state and if Gov. Romney holds on to win, he would get 58 delegates and a major victory. Again, these are early voters and the numbers could change.
In Missouri's Democratic battle, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton by four points in early exit polling. This is a state where many Democratic voters still describe themselves as moderate or conservative and the percentage of African-Americans, who are supporting Sen. Obama heavily, is at only 12 percent. Sen. Obama received an important endorsement from Missouri Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill so that may be helping him.
The states in the American South are supporting Sen. Obama in great numbers in Democratic primaries there. Massachusetts, on which I posted earlier, still shows a tight race with Sen. Obama slightly ahead. Voting in the Oklahoma Democratic primary is heavily in favor of Sen. Clinton.
Returning to the Republicans, Sen. McCain is easily winning the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, as expected. In southern states, preliminary exit polling shows Gov. Mike Huckabee ahead in Alabama (42 percent to 33 percent for Sen. McCain, and 20 percent for Gov. Romney); in Tennessee, Gov. Huckabee leads over Sen. McCain and Gov. Romney, 34-28-23; and in Arkansas (where Mike Huckabee was governor), he leads over Sen. McCain and Gov. Romney, 33-21-19.
Now the big prize--California, a state where Gov. Romney has had a "surge" of his own. Exit polling (including two waves of data) shows a very close race, 40-38, Sen. McCain over Gov. Romney; this one could go down to the wire, no calls yet.
And this just in, the polls closed in Georgia about ten minutes ago and the networks have already called the Democratic primary for Sen. Obama in what is described as a rout. Half the voters in the Democratic Party electorate are African-Americans, so no real surprise there.
More poll closings in about 45 minutes [0100 UTC]. More results and polls as they come in.
Exit Polls in Massachusetts--An Obama Surge?
Early and preliminary reports of exit polls from Massachusetts show a 20-point lead for former Gov. Romney on the Republican side. No surprise there, he was the former governor and led by 22 points in a poll taken on Feb. 3.
But the first evidence of the Obama "surge" may be coming in Massachusetts where these exit poll reports show what is being called a "dead heat" in the Bay State. In one poll taken on Feb. 3, Sen. Clinton led by 17 points; another showed Sen. Obama up by two. Nevertheless, most analysts expected Sen. Clinton to cruise to victory here. Massachusetts and the neighboring northeastern states are the region where Sen. Clinton hoped to pile up votes on Super Tuesday.
Polling places in Massachusetts close at 8 pm EST [0100 UTC].
Stay tuned for more.
But the first evidence of the Obama "surge" may be coming in Massachusetts where these exit poll reports show what is being called a "dead heat" in the Bay State. In one poll taken on Feb. 3, Sen. Clinton led by 17 points; another showed Sen. Obama up by two. Nevertheless, most analysts expected Sen. Clinton to cruise to victory here. Massachusetts and the neighboring northeastern states are the region where Sen. Clinton hoped to pile up votes on Super Tuesday.
Polling places in Massachusetts close at 8 pm EST [0100 UTC].
Stay tuned for more.
Super Tuesday Preview
As the voting in America's Super Tuesday primaries, conventions, and caucuses continue, here is a handy guide as to what is happening and what to look for as the returns start to come in.
Depending upon how you count, all the delegates at stake today--nearly 1700 for the Democrats and some 1100 for the Republicans--could just about propel any candidate to the presidential nomination. If you are running for the Democratic Party's nomination, you need 2,025 of 4000 plus delegates to win; if you are a Republican, you need 1,191 out of 2,380 to win.
But the odds are that no one candidate will win enough delegates on Super Tuesday to clinch the nomination outright. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, running for the Republican nomination is the clear leader and most political observers expect him to solidify his position tonight. I'll get to more "Buts" in a few moments.
Over on the Democratic side, even the candidates are looking past Super Tuesday admitting neither Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama will get enough to emerge as a clear leader; in fact, they are expected to split the delegates practically down the middle still leaving a wide-open race in the Democratic Party.
Here is what I am looking at for Super Tuesday that could give a hint of where things may go. Let's start with the out party, the Democrats.
The conventional wisdom is that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has been coming on like gangbusters in recent days. For most of 2007 when the campaign began, he trailed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. But his win in the Iowa Caucus on January 3 launched an upwared trend in the national polls that has continued to today. With an excellent debate performance in a nationally-televised broadcast last Thursday and the endorsement from the Democrats' powerful Kennedy family, Sen. Obama leads in two polls (including CNN), and is tied in a CBS/NY Times poll.
In some of the state by state polls, he is also climbing.
But overall, Sen. Clinton is clinging to a lead nationally and in several key states. In a Gallup poll with a large sample of voters (1267) she leads by five points (which is outside the poll's margin of error). Other polls have her leading as well, one by as much as eight points.
If there truly is a surge in support for Sen. Obama that will culminate tonight, look first in the megastate of California (441 delegates--370 at stake tonight). Two recent polls show it neck and neck with a one-point lead for Sen. Obama; another poll has a ten-point lead for Sen. Clinton, and yet another has Sen. Obama with a 13-point edge. They can't all be right!
Sen. Obama will have to pick up lots of people voting today in California as almost half the state has already voted via absentee ballot. Presumably, many of those were cast before his recent rise, so Sen. Clinton should be the beneficiary of these votes. If it is a tight race in the absolute numbers of people voting in the California Democratic Primary, then you can assume that the surge for Sen. Obama is indeed real. If Sen. Clinton maintains a respectable edge throughout the voting, then perhaps his "surge" was overplayed. Also key for Sen. Clinton is the state's Latino voters (estimated at 14 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in California). If they stay loyal to Sen. Clinton as they have in previous elections (64 percent Latino support in Nevada's caucuses), then she should have a good night.
It truly is a tight race there.
Another state to watch for Sen. Obama is New Jersey, a state right next to New York, the state that sent Sen. Clinton to the Senate. As recently as Feb. 1, she enjoyed a 14-point lead in one poll; now the majority of polls have her at around 5-6 points ahead. If Sen. Obama is surging, we may also see it in this state.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona is expected to do very well tonight and claim the lion's share of the delegates at stake. Nationally, he has opened up double-digit leads over his principal rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, some of those leads in the high 20s.
But the race in delegate-rich California (170 of 173 for the Republicans) has tightened a great deal in recent days and has taken on great significance for Gov. Romney. An upset win here in the popular vote will keep his campaign going and will reinvigorate it. Current polling indicates a very tight race. Gov. Romney leads in one poll by seven points, Sen. McCain by seven in another, and the latest one, taken over the 3rd and 4th, shows the Arizona senator ahead by one point.
If there is a late groundswell for Sen. Romney, look for it in California where Republicans there tend to be a little more conservative than in other states.
Of course, the real contest will be held on the delegate level, and there the rules are so complex and complicated, that it would take days to explain them (that's assuming I understand them all myself). Suffice to say, the Democrats will be awarding delegates proportionately; the Republicans, for the most part, do it winner take all (though not in all cases--like California, for example.)
More on that later. But those are three states to keep an eye on as the results come in for Super Tuesday.
Depending upon how you count, all the delegates at stake today--nearly 1700 for the Democrats and some 1100 for the Republicans--could just about propel any candidate to the presidential nomination. If you are running for the Democratic Party's nomination, you need 2,025 of 4000 plus delegates to win; if you are a Republican, you need 1,191 out of 2,380 to win.
But the odds are that no one candidate will win enough delegates on Super Tuesday to clinch the nomination outright. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, running for the Republican nomination is the clear leader and most political observers expect him to solidify his position tonight. I'll get to more "Buts" in a few moments.
Over on the Democratic side, even the candidates are looking past Super Tuesday admitting neither Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama will get enough to emerge as a clear leader; in fact, they are expected to split the delegates practically down the middle still leaving a wide-open race in the Democratic Party.
Here is what I am looking at for Super Tuesday that could give a hint of where things may go. Let's start with the out party, the Democrats.
The conventional wisdom is that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has been coming on like gangbusters in recent days. For most of 2007 when the campaign began, he trailed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. But his win in the Iowa Caucus on January 3 launched an upwared trend in the national polls that has continued to today. With an excellent debate performance in a nationally-televised broadcast last Thursday and the endorsement from the Democrats' powerful Kennedy family, Sen. Obama leads in two polls (including CNN), and is tied in a CBS/NY Times poll.
In some of the state by state polls, he is also climbing.
But overall, Sen. Clinton is clinging to a lead nationally and in several key states. In a Gallup poll with a large sample of voters (1267) she leads by five points (which is outside the poll's margin of error). Other polls have her leading as well, one by as much as eight points.
If there truly is a surge in support for Sen. Obama that will culminate tonight, look first in the megastate of California (441 delegates--370 at stake tonight). Two recent polls show it neck and neck with a one-point lead for Sen. Obama; another poll has a ten-point lead for Sen. Clinton, and yet another has Sen. Obama with a 13-point edge. They can't all be right!
Sen. Obama will have to pick up lots of people voting today in California as almost half the state has already voted via absentee ballot. Presumably, many of those were cast before his recent rise, so Sen. Clinton should be the beneficiary of these votes. If it is a tight race in the absolute numbers of people voting in the California Democratic Primary, then you can assume that the surge for Sen. Obama is indeed real. If Sen. Clinton maintains a respectable edge throughout the voting, then perhaps his "surge" was overplayed. Also key for Sen. Clinton is the state's Latino voters (estimated at 14 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in California). If they stay loyal to Sen. Clinton as they have in previous elections (64 percent Latino support in Nevada's caucuses), then she should have a good night.
It truly is a tight race there.
Another state to watch for Sen. Obama is New Jersey, a state right next to New York, the state that sent Sen. Clinton to the Senate. As recently as Feb. 1, she enjoyed a 14-point lead in one poll; now the majority of polls have her at around 5-6 points ahead. If Sen. Obama is surging, we may also see it in this state.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona is expected to do very well tonight and claim the lion's share of the delegates at stake. Nationally, he has opened up double-digit leads over his principal rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, some of those leads in the high 20s.
But the race in delegate-rich California (170 of 173 for the Republicans) has tightened a great deal in recent days and has taken on great significance for Gov. Romney. An upset win here in the popular vote will keep his campaign going and will reinvigorate it. Current polling indicates a very tight race. Gov. Romney leads in one poll by seven points, Sen. McCain by seven in another, and the latest one, taken over the 3rd and 4th, shows the Arizona senator ahead by one point.
If there is a late groundswell for Sen. Romney, look for it in California where Republicans there tend to be a little more conservative than in other states.
Of course, the real contest will be held on the delegate level, and there the rules are so complex and complicated, that it would take days to explain them (that's assuming I understand them all myself). Suffice to say, the Democrats will be awarding delegates proportionately; the Republicans, for the most part, do it winner take all (though not in all cases--like California, for example.)
More on that later. But those are three states to keep an eye on as the results come in for Super Tuesday.
Your Conments Welcome!
If you find us and have questions about the U.S. presidential election, its process, why it was set up the way it was, or anything else, please feel free to e-mail at:
VOAElectionBlog@VOANews.Com
I'll be happy to try and answer. Comments welcome, too!
VOAElectionBlog@VOANews.Com
I'll be happy to try and answer. Comments welcome, too!
First State in Super Tuesday Reports
The first results in the United States' massive presidential nomination contest, Super Tuesday, are in.
In West Virginia, Republicans holding a convention in that state have given 18 delegates to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.
A first round of voting there did not produce a winner, but the political horsetrading began soon after. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the frontrunner and favorite for most of the Republican voting on Super Tuesday, finished with 16 percent behind former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (41 percent) and Gov. Huckabee (33 percent). Congressman Ron Paul had 10 percent of the ballots cast.
In the second round of voting, analysts said the supporters of Sen. McCain and Congressman Paul appeared to give their votes to Gov. Huckabee. They did this, these analysts say, to prevent Gov. Romney--the principal rival to Sen. McCain--from getting an early victory and momentum in Super Tuesday contests.
As we often say in the States, politics ain't beanbag, meaning it can be a tough business.
At the end of the convention, Gov. Huckabee got 52 percent of the ballots cast, Gov. Romney, 47 percent, and Sen. McCain, one percent. Congressman Paul finished fourth but did not have enough votes to meet the election's threshhold, and was eliminated.
In the complex election rules, West Virginia has 12 delegates remaining to be picked. Nine of them will be chosen in the state's primary election on May 13, the other three will be determined at the Republican National Convention.
This is the first contest that Gov. Huckabee has won since the Iowa Caucus on January 3. In the delegate projections, Gov. Huckabee now has 58 delegates, trailing Gov. Romney's 77, and Sen. McCain's 93. Congressman Ron Paul has four.
Much more to come later so come back to this space and go to www.voanews.com for the latest results on the web, and tune us in on shortwave throughout this evening on VOA News Now for continuous updates.
In West Virginia, Republicans holding a convention in that state have given 18 delegates to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.
A first round of voting there did not produce a winner, but the political horsetrading began soon after. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the frontrunner and favorite for most of the Republican voting on Super Tuesday, finished with 16 percent behind former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (41 percent) and Gov. Huckabee (33 percent). Congressman Ron Paul had 10 percent of the ballots cast.
In the second round of voting, analysts said the supporters of Sen. McCain and Congressman Paul appeared to give their votes to Gov. Huckabee. They did this, these analysts say, to prevent Gov. Romney--the principal rival to Sen. McCain--from getting an early victory and momentum in Super Tuesday contests.
As we often say in the States, politics ain't beanbag, meaning it can be a tough business.
At the end of the convention, Gov. Huckabee got 52 percent of the ballots cast, Gov. Romney, 47 percent, and Sen. McCain, one percent. Congressman Paul finished fourth but did not have enough votes to meet the election's threshhold, and was eliminated.
In the complex election rules, West Virginia has 12 delegates remaining to be picked. Nine of them will be chosen in the state's primary election on May 13, the other three will be determined at the Republican National Convention.
This is the first contest that Gov. Huckabee has won since the Iowa Caucus on January 3. In the delegate projections, Gov. Huckabee now has 58 delegates, trailing Gov. Romney's 77, and Sen. McCain's 93. Congressman Ron Paul has four.
Much more to come later so come back to this space and go to www.voanews.com for the latest results on the web, and tune us in on shortwave throughout this evening on VOA News Now for continuous updates.
February 4, 2008
Super Tuesday
Excitement is building as tomorrow is "Super Tuesday" in the American political world.
On Tuesday, Feb. 5, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Americans in about two dozen states will be casting ballots in primaries and caucuses which are being staged by both our political parties, the Republicans and the Democrats.
On the Republican side, some 1,081 convention delegates will be at stake on Tuesday; a candidate needs 1,191 out of 2,380 to get the Republican Party's nomination. On the Democrats' side, 1,681 delegates are up for grabs. A candidate will need 2,025 out of 4,049 total delegates to get the party's nomination.
These two major primaries were set up to help select a winning, if not leading, candidate by early February. With the leading candidates identified, the theory goes, both parties would rally around their front runners, bury their differences, and unite for the November presidential election.
But things haven't quite worked out as neatly as all that, according to many election observers in the U.S., including me!
It appears that on the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, currently the front-runner, is poised to win the lion's share of delegates over his principal rivals, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and U.S. Representative Ron Paul. Currently, Sen. McCain is generally thought to have 93 total delegates from the primaries and caucuses to date. Governor Romney has 77, Governor Huckabee has 40, and Rep. Paul has three.
However, many analysts also believe that the race between Sen. McCain and his nearest competitor, Gov. Romney, is still not settled, and that while Sen. McCain may do very well on Tuesday, it may not be enough to knock the other candidates from the race. So we can look for Sen. McCain to lead after Tuesday; whether he will have enough to sew up the nomination is still an open question. Sen. McCain has leads in national approval polls over Gov. Romney and the others, but some of these polls indicate a very tight race.
On the Democratic side, the picture appears even more muddied. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, the winner of the Iowa caucus and South Carolina primary, has been skyrocketing in the polls as of late, partly due to a fine showing in a nationally-televised debate in Los Angeles last week with the winner of the New Hampshire Primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. For the first time, several polls show Sen. Obama the leader on a national level among Democrats.
The state by state comparisons indicate a very tough race for the two, with Sen. Clinton perhaps favored to win more states on Tuesday than Sen. Obama. But with the Democrats awarding delegates from these states largely on a proportional basis, there may not be a clear delegate winner, even though one or the other may win most of the actual votes. The consensus among analysts is that the two will split the delegate count fairly evenly, moving the race beyond Super Tuesday with no clear front-runner indicated.
Of course, as we have seen this year, predictions and polls have not always been as accurate as political scientists would like. But the bottom line is, I believe, that neither of the two races will be decided on Tuesday, although the Republicans may closer to that goal than the Democrats.
Tune in the Voice of America in English or in your native language to hear live reports on the voting; also our terrific website, www.voanews.com will have election reports.
I'll be posting about results and polls on Tuesday evening and try to make sense of the results on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Feb. 5, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Americans in about two dozen states will be casting ballots in primaries and caucuses which are being staged by both our political parties, the Republicans and the Democrats.
On the Republican side, some 1,081 convention delegates will be at stake on Tuesday; a candidate needs 1,191 out of 2,380 to get the Republican Party's nomination. On the Democrats' side, 1,681 delegates are up for grabs. A candidate will need 2,025 out of 4,049 total delegates to get the party's nomination.
These two major primaries were set up to help select a winning, if not leading, candidate by early February. With the leading candidates identified, the theory goes, both parties would rally around their front runners, bury their differences, and unite for the November presidential election.
But things haven't quite worked out as neatly as all that, according to many election observers in the U.S., including me!
It appears that on the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, currently the front-runner, is poised to win the lion's share of delegates over his principal rivals, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and U.S. Representative Ron Paul. Currently, Sen. McCain is generally thought to have 93 total delegates from the primaries and caucuses to date. Governor Romney has 77, Governor Huckabee has 40, and Rep. Paul has three.
However, many analysts also believe that the race between Sen. McCain and his nearest competitor, Gov. Romney, is still not settled, and that while Sen. McCain may do very well on Tuesday, it may not be enough to knock the other candidates from the race. So we can look for Sen. McCain to lead after Tuesday; whether he will have enough to sew up the nomination is still an open question. Sen. McCain has leads in national approval polls over Gov. Romney and the others, but some of these polls indicate a very tight race.
On the Democratic side, the picture appears even more muddied. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, the winner of the Iowa caucus and South Carolina primary, has been skyrocketing in the polls as of late, partly due to a fine showing in a nationally-televised debate in Los Angeles last week with the winner of the New Hampshire Primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. For the first time, several polls show Sen. Obama the leader on a national level among Democrats.
The state by state comparisons indicate a very tough race for the two, with Sen. Clinton perhaps favored to win more states on Tuesday than Sen. Obama. But with the Democrats awarding delegates from these states largely on a proportional basis, there may not be a clear delegate winner, even though one or the other may win most of the actual votes. The consensus among analysts is that the two will split the delegate count fairly evenly, moving the race beyond Super Tuesday with no clear front-runner indicated.
Of course, as we have seen this year, predictions and polls have not always been as accurate as political scientists would like. But the bottom line is, I believe, that neither of the two races will be decided on Tuesday, although the Republicans may closer to that goal than the Democrats.
Tune in the Voice of America in English or in your native language to hear live reports on the voting; also our terrific website, www.voanews.com will have election reports.
I'll be posting about results and polls on Tuesday evening and try to make sense of the results on Wednesday.
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