As a result of voting this past weekend (the state of Maine's caucuses in the Democratic Party have yet to be completed at this writing), the delegate race between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has tightened even further.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, the tally stands at Sen. Clinton, 1121, Sen. Obama, 1106. The winner needs to get 2,025 out of the 4,049 total delegates at the Democratic National Convention scheduled for August in Denver, Colorado.
Various scenarios are being spun out as to what the delegate total might be after all the primaries and caucuses are finished in June. Most analysts are stopping at the April 22 vote in Pennsylvania as the drop-dead marker for the nomination, although seven states and one territory will hold their contests between May 6 and June 7 with 492 total delegates at stake.
There is a consensus emerging that barring a landslide towards one candidate or the other, neither will have enough to claim the nomination once all the voting is over.
Enter the Super Delegates.
Super Delegates are not delegates endowed with power "far beyond those of mortal men" like the American cartoon character Superman. Instead, the Democrats decided two decades ago that along with the pledged delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses, a certain number of delegate positions would be allotted for what is known as "party insiders"--major elected officials (governors, members of Congress, other luminaries) and chairmen of the state Democratic Party organizations. These super delegates (there are 796 of them) are unpledged, that is, they are not bound by any election results in their states, and can vote for whomever they wish. They are the party establishment, the wise graybeards, who would rise above the petty squabbling and do what is best for the party in the election year, whatever the consequences.
These Super Delegates were created, in the opinion of many convention observers, to ameliorate the kind of deadlock that seems to be developing in 2008. In theory, these delegates would, quietly and out of the limelight, come to a consensus on who should win the nomination, and deliver their votes accordingly. The campaigns would be counseled privately, a compromise reached, and the party enters the convention with the winner known and selected.
That is the theory anyway. But that's not always the way things turn out. The super delegates are subject to pressures of their own. So far, according to RealClearPolitics.com, 348 of the 796 sd's (for short) have publicly pledged themselves. Sen. Clinton gets 211, Sen. Obama, 137. The other 448 are being lobbied furiously with phone calls, e-mails, etc.
The glib reaction is that the sd's will follow the voters' decisions. That is, Super Delegate X will vote for whoever won the primary or caucus in their state. That is certainly possible but imagine this scenario. You are a governor in his or her second term who eventually plans to run for senator at some point. Because you expect to get help and support from Sen. Clinton;s campaign, and you're a long-time friend and ally, and you truly think she can win in November, you opt to vote for her. But the Obama forces come and say that if you want the sizable African-American voting bloc in your state to ever support you again, you better vote for Sen. Obama. What do you do? Suddenly, it's not that easy.
So, in my mind, the super delegates will be whipsawed back and forth among competing factions, but in the end, I think they will do what they believe is in the best interests of the party and its electoral chances.
There are suggestions being made to do away with the super delegates entirely and leave the decisions in the hands of the voters who have taken part in the process so far. But I don't think you change the rules in the middle of the game, and these delegates are there for a reason--to bring the collective wisdom of those who have the biggest stake in the party; not some independent voters who cast a one-time ballot in a primary for a party to which they do not belong.
If I had to guess, I don't think these rules will be changed, although I would not venture to say what the eventual process will be by which the super delegates award their crucial votes. But the party set it up this way and the rules should be honored and remain in place for all candidates. In this case, the "cure" might be worse than the disease.
As you follow this voting from wherever it is you reside, I would love to hear what you think regarding this issue for the Democratic Party. Just drop us an e-mail or leave a comment and we can start the discussion going.
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