Wrap Up

With the Wisconsin Primary called for both frontrunners, Sen. Barack Obama on the Democratic side, and Sen. John McCain on the Republican side, the race seems to be stabilizing and taking a definitive shape.

For the Republicans, it was a good night for Sen. McCain, who won handily among those identified as Republicans. He split conservatives with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, but lost evangelical voters. But overall, he had a good night and is now within shouting distance of clinching the nomination.

The question is how long Gov. Huckabee will stay in the race, previous reports had him staying in through March 4. Given the wide lead of Sen. McCain and the pressure from party leaders to throw in with the front runner and bring the party behind Sen. McCain's candidacy, he will be feeling the heat to withdraw.

For the Democrats, it was a tenth straight victory for Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton, and there are signs that Sen. Obama continued to win over voters who had previously been casting their ballots for Sen. Clinton. Many of the demographic groups in the state (women, downscale economic voters, members of labor unions) were ones that Sen. Clinton had an excellent chance to win. The only group that still seems to support her in large numbers are women over 60. Otherwise, she is losing to (or splitting) these critical voting blocs with Sen. Obama.

The tenth straight win also is beginning to solidify the perception that Sen. Obama is marching to victory, and picking up support as he goes. Sen. Clinton badly needs a victory and must now look to Texas and Ohio to break into the win column.

Currently, polls show that Sen. Clinton has leads in both states, but one poll shows a precipitous drop for her support in Ohio, and another shows Sen. Obama leading in Texas. The next thing to look for is what effect the Wisconsin win will have on polling in Texas and Ohio.

There are 13 days between Wednesday, Feb. 20, and the March 4 voting in the two big states; plenty of time for the Sen. Obama bandwagon to roll on to the Midwest and South. But Sen. Clinton also has about two weeks to try to change the shape of this campaign to her advantage.

We will examine polling starting on 2/20 to see if her leads in Texas and Ohio hold up, increase, or begin to plummet.

It's getting to crunch time for the Democrats.