February 19, 2008

Sen. McCain Selected as Winner in Wisconsin Primary for Republicans

Even before the polls closed in Wisconsin, both Fox and CNN called Wisconsin for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, easily winning over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

But the exit polling still shows some troubling signs for Sen. McCain's campaign: the former Arkansas governor wins evangelical voters by 59-35 percent; so-called "values voters" by 54-31 percent, and although there are no numbers yet, the polls say he is winning "conservatives."

But among self-identified Republicans, who made up 70 percent of the party primary voters in Wisconsin, Sen. McCain won, 53-47.

The conservatives and evangelicals are voters that Sen. McCain is going to need to "bring back home" for the general election against either Democratic Party candidate.

The question is whether these voters will vote for the Arizona senator in the fall when Gov. Huckabee is not an option on the ballot. These voters could be going for Gov. Huckabee merely because he is there or they are "sending a message" to Sen. McCain, or, in November, they do not plan to vote for him. We will see over the length of the campaign.

Curiously, among voters who listen to talk radio hosts (who are virulently anti-Sen. McCain), he won 56 percent of their votes against 32 percent who voted for former Gov. Huckabee.

Sen. McCain is saying, "I will be the Republican party's nominee." Pretty safe bet, I'd say.

The Democratic race is still too close to call, although sources say a call could be coming soon based on what appear to be big numbers in the exit polling for Sen. Obama.

Early exit polling hints that Sen. Obama may cruise to a 12 point win, in the area of (as one pundit predicted) 55 plus or minus to 43, plus or minus. Again, Sen. Obama did well, according to exit polls, among groups that have to date supported Sen. Clinton such as lower income whites and union workers., etc. The Illinois senator split the white female vote (over half of the Democratic Party primary electorate in Wisconsin) this group of voters was not as wealthy and affluent as the ones in last weekend's Maryland-Virginia--District of Columbia voting.

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