Back on the Grid

I've been off the grid for awhile and while I was away, tons of stuff happened in the US presidential campaign you should know about.

For a change, let's start with the Republicans. Sen. John McCain of Arizona had any doubts removed that he would be the nominee when he earned the endorsement on Thursday of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Gov. Ropmney amassed 291 delegates (according to RealClearPolitics.com) but he suspended his campaign last week ensuring Sen. McCain would win the nomination. Along with his endorsement, Gov. Romney "gave" his delegates to Sen. McCain.

Those delegates would give McCain 1,116 total delegates, 75 short of the magic number of 1,191 to secure the nomination mathematically.

Meanwhile, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with a total of 240 delegates and Cong. Ron Paul with 14, are both staying in the race but at some point, they will have to bow out so Sen. McCain can truly claim his prize. Gossip inside the Beltway indicates that Gov. Huckabee could withdraw after balloting in Texas on March 4.

The Arizona senator also found out he would receive the endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush (Bush 41) probably next week in Texas. It's a signal, say political observers, that it's time for all Republicans to rally around the nominee and start planning for the general campaign (which seems underway already!).

Republicans next vote in Wisconsin on Feb. 19. It's a winner take all open primary with 37 of 40 delegates at stake.

Now onto the Democrats where the race is much tighter.

When we last left you, the momentum for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois after his wins in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia on Feb. 12, was rising to gargantuan levels; he went into the delegate lead for the first time and also began to creep ahead in national preference polling. The RealClearPolitics.com delegate count has him 58 ahead going into voting on Feb. 19 when Democrats cast ballots in Wisconsin and Hawaii, with a non-binding primary in the Pacific coast state of Washington.

There already was a precinct caucus in Washington State on Feb. 9, and as a result, Sen. Obama got 25 pledged delegates to Sen. Clinton's 12.

In Wisconsin, polls show a tight race with Sen. Obama leading Sen. Clinton by four points. Sen. Clinton was thinking about skipping over Wisconsin, and focusing on upcoming races in Texas and Ohio, but with the contest close, and with her needing a victory, she plans to spend three days in the state.

The state has demographics which each side can claim as favorable. It's gone for Democratic Party presidential candidates in the past two elections but by very small margins. Political analyst Jeff Greenfield writing in Slate.com, says that exit polls from the 2004 presidential primary there showed that almost 60 percent of the voters described themselves as moderates or conservatives. Three in four had incomes of $75,000 a year or less; and half earned less than $50,000 a year. A third of the voters, he wrote, were Catholic, and more than half had no college education. Over twenty percent were members of unions.

This describes fairly well the demographic that has been supporting Sen. Clinton.

But Wisconsin also has a liberal tradition and a large population of university students--this is the terrain that is favorable for Sen. Obama. The polls are fairly tight and a win by Sen. Clinton would throw a roadblock into the coronation underway for Sen. Obama, and give Sen. Clinton a head of steam heading into Texas and Ohio which, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, vote on March 4.

The two large states of Ohio and Texas show Sen. Clinton with leads. With Sen. Obama winning ten major contests in a row (Sen. Clinton was found to have won the New Mexico Primary on Feb. 5--Super Tuesday--winning 14 delegates to Sen. Obama's 12), a win by Sen. Clinton in Wisconsin would be a big boost for her.

But if Sen. Obama's momentum leads to another 10-point win in Wisconsin, look out in Texas and Ohio; the senator from Illinois could be unstoppable.

The endorsement race also picked up when it appeared that Rep. John Lewis, an African-American Democrat from Georgia and long-time supporter of Sen. Clinton, was switching his support to Sen. Obama. The New York Times reported this on Thursday but accounts in the Atlanta papers on Friday denied that there was a switch.

I'll try and post more over the weekend. PS--I do not have a dog in this fight between the two Democratic candidates. I am just laying out the possibilities for each one.

If you have comments or you have preferences, let me know.