The Last Debate?

Last night's debate at Cleveland State University in Ohio may have been the twentieth and last in the series that took place in the Democratic Party this election cycle. Debaters Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois squared off just one week before pivotal contests next Tuesday in Ohio and Texas that could decide the Democratic Party's presidential nomination-for Sen. Obama.

The 46 year-old African-American senator finds himself leading in the national polls, leading in convention delegates, and leading in the votes cast by Democrats since the process began on January 3 in Iowa.

While he trails in polls in Ohio, he is closing fast there on Sen. Clinton. In Texas, polls say that the two are tied or that Senator Sen. Obama holds a slight advantage. That's why last night's debate was so important for Senator Clinton. She needed a way to slow Sen. Obama's momentum, but the consensus view in the American press (and my own as well) was that she didn't.

It was not unlike a boxing match in which one fighter is way ahead on points entering the final round. The fighter behind on points realizes he has to knock the other guy out or lose. The fighter ahead on points just needs to stay on his feet. That was the situation last night. Most political analysts believe Sen. Clinton came nowhere near scoring a knockout and Sen. Obama deftly boxed his way out of trouble.

That isn't to say Sen. Clinton didn't land a few punches. There was a spirited exchange on health care plans that would hold only true policy wonks in rapture. There were charges and counter-charges about Sen. Obama's support from Black Muslim leader Minister Louis Farrakhan whose comments about Jewish Americans and Israel have put him way off on the sidelines of political influence. Sen. Clinton scored a point or two here and there, but in the end, most analysts believe Sen. Obama more than held his own and came out, if not the winner, at least not a loser, which was good enough under the circumstances.

The general consensus is that barring some kind of game-changing political development in the remaining days before Tuesday, Sen. Obama could win both big states (along with Rhode Island and Vermont which also vote) making it 13 and possibly 15 wins in a row. Then the pressure on Sen. Clinton to withdraw could become enormous.

But would she? Some columnists are calling for her to do just that but as Jack Kelly argues on the RealClearPolitics.com site, neither candidate may have enough delegates by the time the convention rolls around to claim a first ballot victory…if Sen. Clinton wins in Ohio and Texas. Even if she wins one of the states (she is leading in Ohio) it is probable she would stay in the race, hoping for a win in Pennsylvania on April 22.

But one thing did happen in the debate. For the first time, Sen. Obama came under some harsh questioning from the press. Debate moderator Tim Russert of MSNBC was quite persistent in his questions about Sen. Obama's support from Louis Farrakhan and whether or not Sen. Obama will accept public financing of his campaign. Sen. Obama originally said he would, but now seems to be putting off the question until he becomes the nominee. That's a bit different from his earlier comments.

Sen. Clinton's complaints in the debate about the press treatment she receives (she thinks it's harsh) versus the press treatment Sen. Obama receives (she thinks it's pretty easy) did not impress political analysts but perhaps did lead to some harder questioning of the Illinois senator than he has been used to. Now that he is the front- runner, the press may start asking some harder-edged questions about his policies. Pieces to this effect are starting to pop up in newspapers ever so slightly.

Nevertheless, if past is prologue, Sen. Obama could be in for a good night on Tuesday, and with wins in Texas and Ohio, just about put the race away as far as peoples' perceptions go. Sen. Clinton has to buck the odds and pull out some victories.

With less than a week left, Senator Clinton needs to find a way to win in Texas and Ohio-not necessarily by a large margin-but as one of our famous professional sports franchise owners put it in a famous quote, "Just win, baby!"