Weekend Update

Heading into this weekend, the last one before critical primary votes in Ohio and Texas on March 4, the situation for the Democrats looks like this.

According to RealClearPolitics.com, counting "super delegates," who are unelected and unpledged, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois leads Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, 1,384 to 1,279. Among pledged delegates, Sen. Obama leads, 1,193 to 1,038.

Looking towards the vote in Texas and Ohio on March 4, Sen. Obama holds a slight lead in the polls in Texas, and Sen. Clinton has a slight lead in Ohio.

The consensus among political observers is that Sen. Clinton needs to win both states to stop the momentum of Sen. Obama. To catch up in the delegate race (delegates are awarded proportionately by the Democrats), Sen. Clinton would need to win by substantial majorities. But politically, a win of any kind in both states would do her well in terms of political perceptions of the race. It could reverse the momentum and make it a contest again and raise some doubts about Sen. Obama.

Sen. Clinton has been running an ad in Texas that has become controversial. The ad involves a red phone ringing and the narrator asks: "Who do you want answering the phone in the White House when it's 3 a.m. and something has happened in the world?" The ad hints that Sen. Obama is not experienced as Sen. Clinton in foreign affairs to react effectively.

Sen. Obama's campaign responded by saying, "We've seen these ads before. They're the kind that play on peoples' fears to scare up votes…the question is not about picking up the phone. The question is -- what kind of judgment will you make when you answer? We've had a red phone moment. It was the decision to invade Iraq. And Sen. Clinton gave the wrong answer."

But I think this has the possibility of being effective. The answer by the Obama campaign seems to be the same one given to any question about his preparedness for questions of national security: "Sen. Obama didn't support the war in Iraq." However, how long can this response serve as an all-purpose rejoinder to any foreign policy question? I would like to see tracking polls after this ad runs awhile.

Then, another issue erupted in the past few days. According to the Canadian television news outlet, CTV, a senior official in Sen. Obama's campaign gave assurances to Canada's government that Sen. Obama's opposition to, and call for, renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was just "campaign rhetoric."

The Obama campaign told CTV Thursday that there was no message given to Canada that Sen. Obama did not mean what he said about opting out of NAFTA if it is not renegotiated.

But then a high-ranking member of the Canadian embassy insisted that the story was true and named the Obama campaign aide--senior economic adviser Austan Goolsbee. Mr. Goolsbee refused to confirm whether or not he had such a conversation with the Canadian government office. But Canadian government sources told CTV that they are standing by their story.

This is the first time in awhile that Sen. Obama has been involved in one of these sorts of stories; a story which calls into question the campaign's veracity or its discipline. And if the campaign is truly reassuring foreign leaders that it doesn't really mean the populist rhetoric it is putting forth, that may not reflect well on the front runner. As one writer asked on a U.S. blog, if the story is true, was Mr. Goolsbee acting on his own, and if he was, what does that say about the effectiveness of the campaign? Who else is saying what to whom?

Ultimately, it may not matter as the voting in Texas and Ohio is only four days away and this may have no impact. But as I said, this is the first ding in Sen. Obama's armor in quite some time, and I expect the press (and the Clinton campaign) to play it up.

This may tighten the races in the coming days. I'll check the tracking polls.

For the Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive nominee, who is leading by 20 points in Texas and 43 in Ohio over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, is not too concerned about the voting.

Stories raising questions about his eligibility to hold the presidency by virtue of his birth in the Panama Canal Zone, ties to lobbyists, and an overeager radio talk show host who introduced him by emphasizing Barack Obama's middle name (Hussein), have plagued Sen. McCain but not really hurt him.

Too much attention is being paid to the Democratic race. We will see if Gov. Huckabee drops out after expected losses in Texas and Ohio or keeps going for the sake of getting to the convention with delegates.