The Day After

It is the day after the so-called Potomac Primary (Democratic and Republican Party primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia, all situated along the Potomac River) and what a difference it has made in the U.S. presidential election.

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois won smashing victories in all three races. He took 64 percent of the vote in Virginia, 60 percent of the vote in Maryland, and 75 percent of the vote in the District of Columbia. He won a clear majority of the 168 pledged delegates at stake on Tuesday, and now leads in delegates over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York by 1272-1231; 2,025 are needed to nominate. In several national polls of Democratic Party voter preferences he now leads as well. He has won eight contests in a row and a sense of momentum, and even a sense, according to his campaign, of “inevitability.”

It wasn’t that long ago that Senator Clinton was making the “inevitability” argument, which has now been turned on its head.

Speaking from a delegate-count basis, Senator Obama’s supporters say his 41-vote lead, according to RealClearPolitics.com, puts him in command, with Wisconsin and Hawaii voting on Feb. 19, where the Illinois senator is also expected to do well.

Hawaii, which was where Sen. Obama was born, is also a caucus state. In a caucus state, voters attend a public meeting and indicate support a candidate openly, as opposed to a primary, which is an election. Sen. Obama has won almost all the Democratic Party caucuses to date save Nevada. In Wisconsin, he leads Sen. Clinton with a 45-41 percent approval advantage in the state. He could pile up another 94 pledged delegates with victories there next week and continue his unbeaten streak, which would reach 10. This would put an enormous amount of pressure on Senator Clinton and the momentum generated by these wins could prove unstoppable.

Yet the Clinton campaign is not without, to use a word heard a lot in this election season, “hope.” To begin with, she trails in Wisconsin by only four points, with 14 percent undecided. She is going to the state on Saturday (which some analysts believe may be too late) because Wisconsin could play to her advantage: there are large numbers of white working-class voters and a small population of African-Americans. She has scored well with these groups in the past. A surprise win in Wisconsin would give the senator’s campaign a huge boost going into the crucial date of March 4.

On March 4 (the day U.S. presidents used to be inaugurated), there are crucial elections in Ohio and Texas, with another biggie slated for April 22 in Pennsylvania. There are 573 delegates up for grabs between March 4 and April 22. According to press accounts, Senator Clinton would need to get 345 of those 573 delegates, or 60 percent, to even the race. In the remaining states, she would need to win more than 55 percent of the vote. That is asking a lot of any candidate but it is certainly not impossible. Sen. Clinton is currently leading in Ohio by 19 points in one survey, but observers wonder if the momentum generated by Sen. Obama this past week will cut into that lead. We’ll find out in the next three weeks.

So while the math looks difficult for Sen. Clinton, the one thing we have learned in this race is not to count her out. Remember New Hampshire, where polls had her trailing, but she eked out a surprise win.

Both sides in the Democratic race are courting the party’s so-called “super delegates,” those 796 officials who are granted voting privileges in the convention but are not bound to any candidate, regardless of the outcome in a particular state. Sen. Obama’s campaign is urging that these super delegates follow the votes in their home states; Sen. Clinton is using her long political history in the Democratic Party to persuade them to vote for her. It is an explosive issue in the party and many political operatives are hoping the super delegates do not decide the outcome of the race.

Then there is the issue of what to do about Michigan and Florida, two states whose delegates were stripped by the Democratic Party when they moved their primaries up in defiance of party rules. Sen. Clinton won in both states and has said that those states’ delegations should be seated; if so, she could pick up 178 delegates or more. Such a proposal brought to the convention floor would lead to a bitter fight and it is one that most Democrats hope to avoid. It can be avoided with further victories by Senator Obama but if Senator Clinton comes back in the remaining states, all bets are off.

On the Republican side, things were quieter with Sen. John McCain of Arizona winning all three primaries putting him within a stone’s throw of the nomination. His principal rival, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, plans to stay in the race, although several reports indicate there is no possible mathematical way that Sen. McCain can lose. Sen. McCain improved his vote-getting totals among Republican Party voters but social conservatives supported Gov. Huckabee and made the race in Virginia much closer (50 percent to 41 percent) than Sen. McCain had hoped. Nevertheless, Sen. McCain is now aiming his sights at Sen. Obama and Sen. Obama is returning the compliment.

So have we reached a turning point in the Democratic race as we have in the Republican? I’ll blog more about that later. What do you think?