Super Tuesday Preview

As the voting in America's Super Tuesday primaries, conventions, and caucuses continue, here is a handy guide as to what is happening and what to look for as the returns start to come in.

Depending upon how you count, all the delegates at stake today--nearly 1700 for the Democrats and some 1100 for the Republicans--could just about propel any candidate to the presidential nomination. If you are running for the Democratic Party's nomination, you need 2,025 of 4000 plus delegates to win; if you are a Republican, you need 1,191 out of 2,380 to win.

But the odds are that no one candidate will win enough delegates on Super Tuesday to clinch the nomination outright. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, running for the Republican nomination is the clear leader and most political observers expect him to solidify his position tonight. I'll get to more "Buts" in a few moments.

Over on the Democratic side, even the candidates are looking past Super Tuesday admitting neither Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama will get enough to emerge as a clear leader; in fact, they are expected to split the delegates practically down the middle still leaving a wide-open race in the Democratic Party.

Here is what I am looking at for Super Tuesday that could give a hint of where things may go. Let's start with the out party, the Democrats.

The conventional wisdom is that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has been coming on like gangbusters in recent days. For most of 2007 when the campaign began, he trailed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. But his win in the Iowa Caucus on January 3 launched an upwared trend in the national polls that has continued to today. With an excellent debate performance in a nationally-televised broadcast last Thursday and the endorsement from the Democrats' powerful Kennedy family, Sen. Obama leads in two polls (including CNN), and is tied in a CBS/NY Times poll.

In some of the state by state polls, he is also climbing.

But overall, Sen. Clinton is clinging to a lead nationally and in several key states. In a Gallup poll with a large sample of voters (1267) she leads by five points (which is outside the poll's margin of error). Other polls have her leading as well, one by as much as eight points.

If there truly is a surge in support for Sen. Obama that will culminate tonight, look first in the megastate of California (441 delegates--370 at stake tonight). Two recent polls show it neck and neck with a one-point lead for Sen. Obama; another poll has a ten-point lead for Sen. Clinton, and yet another has Sen. Obama with a 13-point edge. They can't all be right!

Sen. Obama will have to pick up lots of people voting today in California as almost half the state has already voted via absentee ballot. Presumably, many of those were cast before his recent rise, so Sen. Clinton should be the beneficiary of these votes. If it is a tight race in the absolute numbers of people voting in the California Democratic Primary, then you can assume that the surge for Sen. Obama is indeed real. If Sen. Clinton maintains a respectable edge throughout the voting, then perhaps his "surge" was overplayed. Also key for Sen. Clinton is the state's Latino voters (estimated at 14 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in California). If they stay loyal to Sen. Clinton as they have in previous elections (64 percent Latino support in Nevada's caucuses), then she should have a good night.

It truly is a tight race there.

Another state to watch for Sen. Obama is New Jersey, a state right next to New York, the state that sent Sen. Clinton to the Senate. As recently as Feb. 1, she enjoyed a 14-point lead in one poll; now the majority of polls have her at around 5-6 points ahead. If Sen. Obama is surging, we may also see it in this state.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona is expected to do very well tonight and claim the lion's share of the delegates at stake. Nationally, he has opened up double-digit leads over his principal rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, some of those leads in the high 20s.

But the race in delegate-rich California (170 of 173 for the Republicans) has tightened a great deal in recent days and has taken on great significance for Gov. Romney. An upset win here in the popular vote will keep his campaign going and will reinvigorate it. Current polling indicates a very tight race. Gov. Romney leads in one poll by seven points, Sen. McCain by seven in another, and the latest one, taken over the 3rd and 4th, shows the Arizona senator ahead by one point.

If there is a late groundswell for Sen. Romney, look for it in California where Republicans there tend to be a little more conservative than in other states.

Of course, the real contest will be held on the delegate level, and there the rules are so complex and complicated, that it would take days to explain them (that's assuming I understand them all myself). Suffice to say, the Democrats will be awarding delegates proportionately; the Republicans, for the most part, do it winner take all (though not in all cases--like California, for example.)

More on that later. But those are three states to keep an eye on as the results come in for Super Tuesday.